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Adobe Digital Insight's Vivek Pandya forecasts a record holiday season with over $275 billion in online sales and 6.7% growth. He expects October to top $95 billion, Black Friday to gain ground on Cyber Monday, and AI traffic to surge 130% year over year. Electronics, health and beauty, and grocery are all standout growth categories.
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The only time market breadth has been "this bad" was in 1973 and in 1999 into 2000, says Matthew Tuttle. While it doesn't blare emergency alarm for stocks, Matthew warns on buying AI-related stock dips until Micron's (MU) earnings and urges investors consider hedges for portfolio protection. On Micron itself, Matthew says he would "love to see them blow away the whisper numbers" to add profound confidence the AI trade has a long runway ahead. If earnings disappoint, he sees the report holding potential to "pull everything down" across tech.
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Assia Georgieva, CEO of Infinity Research, examines how the Ukraine conflict disrupted European cruise travel from the U.S. and fueled a boom in Caribbean and Alaskan itineraries, while sizing up Carnival (CCL) ahead of earnings given its unique European exposure. Tom White then outlines an options trade on Royal Caribbean (RCL), citing its stronger balance sheet and recent partnership with Sandals Resorts.
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Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6D
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Marley Kayden talks about a pair of headlines moving Nvidia (NVDA) at the start of Monday's trading day, particularly on the Mag 7 company's announcement of an open agent safety platform. The initiative addresses recent concerns of AI development occurring too quickly. Also on Marley's radar: Nvidia's additional $150 billion in share buybacks. Charles Moon of Prosper Trading Academy takes investors through an example options trade for Nvidia.
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Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders says we have not "put the inflation genie back in the bottle by any means." She highlights core PCE, GDP, and PMI data this week as candidates set to move the stock and bond markets. As she says, "it certainly has potential" to change the Fed's interest rate path. Kevin Gordon tells investors to consider Fed commentary suggesting a clearer rate hiking cycle due to the global energy supply shocks. He then turns to the key economic data he's watching this week and ways it can impact the incoming earnings season.
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Economic data will do a lot of the heavy lifting when it comes to moving markets this week, says Kevin Green. Keep an eye out for a tentatively hot core PCE print, something KG believes will lead to a "dead cat bounce" in treasuries. Crude oil prices remain elevated due to lingering tensions between the U.S. and Iran. KG outlines the key levels energy bulls need to watch as geopolitical headlines continue to move the commodity. In equities, he highlights SpaceX (SPCX) and its successful Starship test launch.
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Kevin Nicholson sees investors shifting toward fixed income as yields cross the 5% threshold, with demand concentrated at the front end of the curve. He expects the ten year could reach 5.5% without a resolution by midterms but return to the 4.75% to 5% range if one emerges, while preferring interest rate risk over tight credit spreads. Nicholson remains bullish on equities into year end, citing strong S&P earnings estimates, a solid labor market, and consumption driving GDP growth.
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William Lee, chief economist and managing director at Global Economic Advisors, examines what comes next for the Fed after the September rate hike and how geopolitical pain points are impacting the equity and debt markets. He also weighs in on the risks to watch in private credit and goes through various economic scenarios the Fed may face in the next few years.
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The VIX being on the lower end of its 52-week range is something that surprises Joe Tigay due to the geopolitical and economic risks weighing against the stock market. He still tells investors not to expect a dip below 15 for a substantial period of time. On the AI trade, Joe sees accelerating spending from hyperscalers like Alphabet (GOOGL) as a clear signal there's room to run for tech. Joe tells investors to keep a balanced portfolio and names Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Caterpillar (CAT) as names he likes.
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Micron (MU) is seeing more bullish momentum heading into Wednesday's earnings, as Diane explains Baird's price target hike for the stock. Meanwhile, Roblox (RBLX) was slapped with a downgrade from Jefferies over concerns of a waning user base. Royal Caribbean (RCL) got an upgrade from BofA on expectations the company will be more protected than peers from geopolitical woes.
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