Sharp China Podcast

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen's visit to China, including what her meetings may or may not accomplish and the likely next steps for the Biden Administration in the months to come. From there: As the US and Europe grapple with the threat of cheaper PRC goods in key industries, how might China respond to raised tariffs around the world? Will there be consequences for continued support of Russia's defense industrial base? And how realistic is the deterrence strategy articulated by Ambassador Rahm Emanuel this week? At the end: A question about Xi's vision for the PRC financial system, the deepening partnership between the US and Japan, the US and allies conduct naval exercises in the South China Sea, and a question about Tesla's 0% financing for PRC customers. 

This episode of Sharp China is free for everyone.

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from Tuesday’s phone call between President Biden and President Xi, including the PRC rhetoric surrounding US trade and tech policies, and messages to both domestic audiences and allies. From there: Janet Yellen’s visit to China and her evolving stance on PRC exports, the March Politburo meeting comes and goes without plenum news, Xi meets with U.S. business leaders, and Harvard’s Graham Allison emerges as a potential Henry Kissinger successor. At the end: Escalating rhetoric and the latest confrontation between the PRC and the Philippines, Tesla’s latest sales numbers and structural challenges in the PRC, and the debut of 3 Body Problem on Netflix. 

To subscribe to Sinocism and gain access to all podcast episodes as well as every issue of Sinocism from Bill Bishop, go here.

To subscribe to Stratechery Plus and receive daily writing from Ben Thompson and daily podcasts from Andrew Sharp, go here.

Click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player. You can also listen to it in the Substack app, which has its own podcast player:

Related Readings:

Xi-Biden call; More US tech controls coming?; NDRC on equipment and consumer upgrades; Another Justice Minister goes down -- Sinocism 

March Politburo meeting; PRC-Philippines tensions; Xi's meeting with US VIPs -- Sinocism 

Joe Biden and Xi Jinping have ‘candid’ phone call in first engagement since November -- FT  

US and EU officials talk China in Belgium -- Politico EU 

Janet Yellen Missed the First ‘China Shock.’ Can She Stop the Second? -- WSJ 

China's Xi meets American CEOs in bid to boost confidence in ailing economy -- NBC News 

'China and US are inseparable, conjoined Siamese twins:' Graham Allison - Global Times

Thread by Graham Allison -- Graham Allison on X 

Professor Graham ‘Thucydides Trap’ Allison’s Three-Body Problem -- China Heritage 

China coast guard water cannons Philippine resupply ship -- Joseph Morong on X

Tesla’s Shrinking China Market Share Compounds Global Woes -- Bloomberg 

[Three-Body] EP01 | Tencent Video -- YouTube

To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:

Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.

The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.

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Thanks for listening.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the Ministry of State Security providing its interpretation of the Cybersecurity Law. Topics include: The odd timing of this message as debate roils over TikTok, the legal and regulatory framework that’s emerged under Xi, and the lack of anonymity on the PRC internet. From there: The Hong Kong legislature passes Article 23 faster than expected, and an update on the state of the TikTok legislation as the Senate prepares for an intel briefing on Wednesday. Then: Lessons from the solar industry as domestic suppliers in the EU and US struggle to compete with the PRC, Liu Jianchao offers clarifying commentary on China's approach to the Global South, Rahm Emanuel talks to Semafor, and Zach Edey takes center stage in the NCAA Tournament.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a week of surprising progress for the Protecting Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act. With the House set to vote Wednesday, they discuss the origins of the bill and months of work behind the scenes, TikTok’s now-infamous in-app alert, and why Beijing is likely to oppose any divestment plan if the bill eventually becomes law. From there: The factions in Washington that are opposing this bill, regulatory obstacles for American Internet companies in China, alignment or lack thereof between US business interests and Beijing, and what the next few months for TikTok and Congress could signify. At the end: A report that Li Qiang won’t attend this year’s China Development Forum, Mercedes CEO Ola Källenius lobbies for lower tariffs in the EU, and a few final notes from the Two Sessions.

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from the Two Sessions, including the work report from Premier Li Qiang, what to make of the 5% GDP growth target for 2024, the cancellation of Li's press conference, Xi Jinping’s visit to the Jiangsu breakout session and his message on new productive forces and economic development, and the evolution of the Two Sessions in recent years. From there: The latest exchange between the Philippines and the PRC in the South China Sea, the Biden White House announces an investigation into Chinese EVs, and there’s a bipartisan bill in the House that will renew the TikTok conversation in D.C.

To subscribe to Sinocism and gain access to all podcast episodes as well as every issue of Sinocism from Bill Bishop, click here.

To subscribe to Stratechery Plus and receive daily writing from Ben Thompson and daily podcasts from Andrew Sharp, click here.

Related Readings:

No big surprises in the NPC work report; Xi talks new productive forces with Jiangsu delegation; Second Thomas Shoal; TikTok -- Sinocism 

Two sessions; Talking up the economy’s bright prospects; US-China; "Pseudo-middle class trap" -- Sinocism 

China’s Premier Steps Deeper Into Xi’s Shadow  -- WSJ 

Xi’s One-Man Rule Over China’s Economy Is Spurring Unrest -- Bloomberg 

Philippines says crew hurt, vessels damaged by China Coast Guard -- ABS-CBN News 

Video from Armed Forces of the Philippines -- Barnaby Lo 吳宗鴻 on X

Statement from President Biden on Addressing National Security Risks to the U.S. Auto Industry -- The White House 

US Probes Security Risks in Chinese Cars, Mulls Curbs -- Bloomberg 

China's global auto strength: Why cost advantage is key for Chinese automakers -- YouTube

Lawmakers introduce bill that would punish app stores for hosting TikTok -- Verge 

TikTok may have more to worry about this time. Tweeting misinformation about the draft bill will not help the company

The draft bill, heading for markup Thursday - Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act - Punchbowl News

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with an overview of the CPPCC, the NPC and what to expect as the Two Sessions begin this weekend. Topics include: Xi’s recent absence from public view, the resignation of Qin Gang as an NPC delegate, Li Shangfu’s removal from the party CMC’s official website, Li Qiang’s first work report as premier, and why Xi Jinping’s is unlikely to echo last year’s comments on the US. From there: Reactions to the I-SOON leaks as evidence of PRC hacking continues to circulate around the world, while Congress has questions for Elon Musk about SpaceX in Taiwan and whether the company is fulfilling its obligations to the US government. At the end: News on the Village Basketball Association, Joe Tsai’s Brooklyn Nets celebrate Lunar New Year, and Pandas are coming back to San Diego and (probably) Washington D.C.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with recent meetings between US officials and PRC counterparts in Munich and Vienna, including complaints from both PRC Director of the CCP Central Foreign Affairs Commission and Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong that the U.S. has harassed PRC students trying to enter the U.S., as well as a note about China's designation as a "major drug source country." From there: The MSS takes to WeChat to criticize the CIA, while the FBI Director warns the Munich Security Forum that Chinese malware capabilities have reached an unprecedented scale. From there: A Financial Times op-ed argues that America has done a poor job countering PRC information warfare, and Congressional staffers debate a blacklist policy for lobbying firms doing business with select PRC entities. At the end: Congressman Mike Gallagher announces he won't seek reelection, while Lionel Messi explains himself (again).

Related readings:

Holiday data OK; Emancipating minds; Kinmen; Party History; Wang Yi in Europe -- Sinocism 

China protests treatment of its students at Dulles and other U.S. entry points -- NBC News 

Memorandum on Presidential Determination on Major Drug Transit or Major Illicit Drug Producing Countries for Fiscal Year 2024 -- The White House 

Spycraft and Statecraft -- Foreign Affairs 

National security authority accuses CIA of ‘bringing suit against its victims’ in bilingual article, showing anti-spy moves justified, legitimate -- Global Times 

FBI Director Says China Cyberattacks on U.S. Infrastructure Now at Unprecedented Scale -- WSJ 

The US needs a better strategic narrative or it will cede influence to China -- FT 

Lawmakers weigh blacklist for firms lobbying for Chinese military-linked companies -- Politico 

TikTok hires Biden-connected firm as it finds itself under D.C.’s microscope  -- Politico 

GOP Rising Star and China Watchdog Mike Gallagher to Quit Congress -- WSJ 

After fallout in China, Messi insists politics had nothing to do with missing game in Hong Kong -- AP 

Lionel Messi's official statement about missing the game in Hong Kong -- YouTube 

John Cena apologises to China for calling Taiwan a country (english subtitles) -- YouTube

To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:

Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.

The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.

If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player.

Thanks for listening.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with another week of volatility in and around the PRC markets, including a crash on Monday, stabilization as the week unfolded, reports of a meeting between Xi and regulators, and changes at the CSRC. Then: For the first time in 17 years Mexico has supplanted China as the biggest U.S. trade partner, which raises questions about the future of the bilateral trade relationship and volume of PRC goods that have been diverted through countries like Mexico and Vietnam. At the end: The future of green energy manufacturing in the EU and China, a look at the sad and absurd week of controversy surrounding Lionel Messi, and a Happy Lunar New Year to all Sharp China listeners. 

Click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player.

Happy year of the Dragon!

Related readings:

CSRC head replaced; Government wants more EV exports; Wei Fenghe absence; Messi’s groin good enough for Japan -- Sinocism 

Stocks; Xi Thought; Nukes -- Sinocism 

Xi Can’t Use 2015 Playbook to Calm China Markets, Investors Say -- Bloomberg 

Xi to Discuss China Stocks With Regulators as Rescue Bets Build -- Bloomberg 

Paul Krugman 2024 - China’s Economy Is in Serious Trouble -- N.Y. Times 

Paul Krugman 2013 - Hitting China's Wall -- N.Y. Times

China’s well-to-do are under assault from every side -- The Economist 

How a U.S. Embassy post about giraffes became an outlet for despair about China’s tumbling stock markets -- NBC News 

China dethroned as top source of US imports after 17 years, replaced by Mexico: census data -- SCMP 

A China-U.S. Decoupling? You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet -- WSJ 

EU mum as solar industry time bomb ticks -- Politico 

With solar industry in crisis, Europe in a bind over Chinese imports -- Reuters 

Messi is playing in a match that concerns integrity: Global Times editorial -- Global Times 

China says Messi's absence in Hong Kong match beyond 'realm of sports' as fury builds -- Reuters

This episode of Sharp China is free for everyone.

Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with reactions to the revival of Article 23 and thoughts on the landscape in Hong Kong as its laws continue to converge with the mainland. Then: A step back for the stock markets after last week’s stabilization efforts, another politburo meeting comes and goes without any announcement of a plenum, and a question about buying real estate in China. At the end: A listener has a question about President Trump and Taiwan, TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew is grilled by Senator Tom Cotton, Secretary Raimondo has concerns about EV data collection, and it’s the one-year anniversary of the spy balloon.

Click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player.

To subscribe to Sinocism and gain access to all podcast episodes as well as every issue of Sinocism from Bill Bishop, click here.

To subscribe to Stratechery Plus and receive daily writing from Ben Thompson and daily podcasts from Andrew Sharp, click here.

Related readings:

Article 23 for Hong Kong; Real estate; Economic policy; Bill Burns on China -- Sinocism 

Stock Market; China Evergrande liquidation; US-China; Another missile cadre goes down -- Sinocism 

Hong Kong unveils new security law in further repeal of liberties -- Nikkei Asia 

Hong Kong activist publisher Jimmy Lai pleads not guilty to sedition and collusion charges -- AP 

Hong Kong announces plans to ‘trawl the world for talents’ -- CNBC 

China Stocks Sink to Five-Year Low as Traders Unwind Rescue Bets -- Bloomberg 

China Politburo Avoids Setting Date for Key Economic Meeting -- Bloomberg

China Says Trump Could Abandon Taiwan If He Wins US Election -- Bloomberg 

Trump says Taiwan 'took our business away'  -- YouTube 

Senator Tom Cotton’s exchange with TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew:

Cotton defends pressing TikTok CEO on ties to Chinese Communist Party -- The Hill 

TikTok Struggles to Protect U.S. Data From Its China Parent -- Wall St. Journal 

Jake Sullivan on the Future of US-China Relations -- CFR 

Raimondo Says Chinese EVs Are a National Security Risk For US, EU -- Asia Financial 

Spy Balloon Memories -- Politico EU

To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:

Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.

The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.

If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with an expanding list of sensitive sites around China at which Tesla vehicles have been deemed a security risk. With the PRC electric vehicle industry expanding every year, what does the future look like for Elon Musk and Tesla in China? And as PRC auto manufacturing outpaces domestic demand, how might the rest of the world react as Chinese cars flood foreign markets? Then: A few new messages and policies emerge as Beijing’s response to weak investor sentiment begins to crystallize and the markets appear to stabilize. At the end: More questions about the PRC response to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, a meeting this weekend between Jake Sullivan and Wang Yi, and the latest adventures on WeChat from the Ministry of State Security.