Sharp China Podcast

This episode of Sharp China is free for everyone.

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with revived animal spirits and the market response to the stimulus measures emerging from Beijing. Topics include: The September Politburo meeting as a sign of the government's commitment, why the capital markets may be a security priority for Xi, what might have motivated the sudden policy shift at the top, and parallels to the market responses in 2014. From there: The property sector and the multi-layered problem policymakers are attempting to solve, Blinken meets with Wang Yi in New York but still no word on a phone call between President Biden and Xi Jinping, a PRC nuclear submarine sinks, and a question about succession in the event of Xi's passing.

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Related Readings:

Xi bull market 2.0?; More support for real estate; Wang Yi meets Blinken -- Sinocism 

September Politburo Meeting to Analyze and Study Current Economic Situation and Economic Work; Investors Pumped

More special bonds for fiscal stimulus?; Stock market surge; Water-filled submarine; MSS mad at New Zealand; Raising money by detaining private entrepreneurs -- Sinocism 

China stocks surge in biggest single-day rally since 2008 on stimulus cheer -- Reuters 

And Just Like That, China Did a Policy U-Turn (Again) -- WSJ 

China’s Housing Glut Collides With Its Shrinking Population -- WSJ 

Secretary Blinken’s Meeting with People’s Republic of China (PRC) Director of the CCP Central Foreign Affairs Commission and Foreign Minister Wang Yi -- U.S. Department of State 

China’s Newest Nuclear Submarine Sank, Setting Back Its Military Modernization -- WSJ 

China concealed sinking of newest nuclear submarine, U.S. says -- Nikkei Asia 

Xi Jinping’s Succession Dilemma -- Asia Society 

To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:

Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.

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This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a raft of measures announced this week to stimulate the economy. Topics include: A pop to the stock market just in time for the PRC's 75th anniversary, stimulating mergers and acquisitions, whether this week's measures indicate more relief in the months to come, and more. Then: The disappearance of prominent economist Zhu Hengpeng, and a reminder of structural problems under Xi that have continued to intensify, regardless of monetary policy. At the end: The Ministry of Commerce announces that the owner of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger are under investigation, the US Commerce Department moves forward with a proposed rule that would effectively ban Chinese vehicles from the US, and a Substack post offers a taxonomy of Democrat China policies and questions about who might set the agenda for a Kamala Harris administration.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin by wishing a happy mid-autumn festival to all. Then: The PRC government implements the Decision on Gradually Raising the Statutory Retirement Ages. Why was this necessary, why were the changes made now, and what might this signal about the rest of goals and reforms announced at the Third Plenum? From there: The PRC blockade at Xianbin Jiao/Sabina Shoal appears to have succeeded as the Philippines returns the BRP Theresa Magbanua to port, and questions persist as to when, and how, the US might deter PRC tactics in the South China Sea. At the end: The latest lobbying effort surrounding updated export controls, Japan's negotiations with the US over export controls, the Biden administration takes on the de minimis loophole, and TikTok’s trial begins in DC. 

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with reactions to last week's arrest of Linda Sun, a former deputy chief of staff to governor Kathy Hochul. Topics include: The allegations contained in the Department of Justice indictment of Sun and her husband, the PRC efforts to influence local government officials around the world, the status of New York Consul General Huang Ping, and a report on the suppression of protestors during Xi's APEC visit in November. From there: Updates on the overcapacity concerns around the world, a Bloomberg story on a $6.5 trillion stock rout, and reactions to a thoughtful Substack post on deleveraging efforts and deflation concerns in the midst of recent turmoil. At the end: An update on Qin Gang that may or may not resolve lingering questions, and a new rock bottom for the PRC men’s soccer team.…

This episode of Sharp China is free for everyone.

Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a look at the dialogue between National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission Wang Yi. Topics include: Why meetings with Wang are valuable to the U.S. side, the progress the meetings have (and have not) yielded, and the strategy going forward. From there: Yet another clash between the PRC and the Philippines over the weekend, continued questions about when and how the U.S. may intervene, and updates on the next phase of chip controls as the Netherlands weighs a policy change, the PRC threatens retribution against Japan, and a cloud computing loophole persists. At the end: An emailer asks about Xi‘s speeches, and thoughts on the success of the best-selling video game in the world this week, Black Myth: Wukong.

To subscribe to Sinocism, click here.

To subscribe to Stratechery, click here.

Click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player. You can also listen to it in the Substack app, which has its own podcast player:

Related Readings:

Xi on education; Escalating crisis at Sabina Shoal; FOCAC week; Toyota opposes more chip controls; A Gao Brother detained -- Sinocism 

Jake Sullivan meets Xi; Philippines resupplies ship at Sabina Shoal; ASML may stop servicing some PRC machines; HK sedition convictions -- Sinocism

The inside story of the secret backchannel between the US and China -- Financial Times 

China, Philippines accuse each other of ramming ships in South China Sea -- Reuters 

If China wants Taiwan it should also take back land from Russia, president says -- Reuters 

As China’s power grows, candidates use it as attack line -- Washington Post 

ASML’s China Chip Business Faces New Curbs From Netherlands -- Bloomberg 

China Warns Japan of Retaliation for Possible New Chip Curbs -- Bloomberg 

Why China Is Starting a New Trade War -- WSJ 

There’s a China-Shaped Hole in the Global Economy -- WSJ 

China trade war ‘maybe unavoidable’, EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell warns -- SCMP 

China’s first global gaming hit sells millions in a week. An early investor shares what’s next -- CNBC 

Hit game Black Myth: Wukong faces backlash after telling players not to discuss ‘feminist propaganda’ -- The Guardian 

Black Myth: Wukong Final Trailer -- YouTube:

To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:

Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.

The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.

If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player.

Thanks for listening.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill return from the Beidaihe break with an update on a raft of Xi rumors and a programming note. Then: Back to the South China Sea, where good news at Second Thomas Shoal has quickly been overshadowed by an aerial incident at Scarborough Shoal and Monday's collision between PRC coast guard vessels and the Philippine coast guard. From there: A Foreign Affairs article outlining Beijing's perspective on the 2024 Presidential election in the US, three categories of American China strategists, and questions about Kamala Harris' approach to China. At the end: The scrutiny surrounding Tim Walz and his history of engagement with China, reports of a proposed rule on Chinese connected vehicle software, and a LiDAR company is removed from the Pentagon's blacklist. 

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill start with a programming note for the next few weeks and various questions for the next few months of the Biden Administration. Topics include: A meeting between Secretary of State of Anthony Blinken and Wang Yi, more threats of escalating sanctions if the PRC supports Russian war efforts, what Kamala Harris China policies might look like, and whether the Commerce Department will take action on connected vehicles before November. From there: Rumors of Huawei’s demise were greatly exaggerated, and why sanctions may have focused PRC energy without achieving their intended goal. At the end: Quick reactions to Tuesday’s Politburo meeting, some very cautious optimism at Second Thomas Shoal, and surveying the PRC swimming controversy that came to light in April and continues to percolate this week in Paris. 

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the Third Plenum resolution, Xi’s explainer, and its reception among the investment community and China observers. Topics include: Why Xi staying the course should surprise no one, the significance of the five-year timeline set forth for reforms, specific domestic problems alongside broad rhetoric ab…

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with an overview of the third plenum and its significance before turning to Thursday's communique in the wake of the plenum. Topics include: Official news on Qin Gang and Li Shangfu twelve months after they each disappeared, the wide-range of goals throughout the communique, questions as we wait for implementation, and the party's stated goal of completing its reform tasks by 2029. From there: The rumors swirling around Xi Jinping and his health this week, and follow-up to the controversy surrounding edible oils. At the end: Reactions to President Trump's comments on Taiwan and America as an insurance company, and two stories on the state of the Biden chip policy.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill prepare for next week’s Third Plenum by talking through expectations and themes to watch. Topics include: The signals from April's Xinhua readout announcing the plenary session, remembering third plenums of the past, why Common Prosperity is on the agenda, why this year's plenum may be the clearest articulation of Xi’s vision for the Party and the PRC, and examining some of the ongoing domestic issues that the Party may (or may not) try to address with reforms. At the end: A scandal over edible oils, the market for silicone masks, fierce competition in the bubble tea market, and checking in with Zach Edey