Sharp China Podcast

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a few updates on the Central Economic Work Conference, economic headwinds facing the PRC economy, including weaker-than-expected retail data, mixed data from the real estate market, and concerns from an economist assessing the conditions on the ground. From there: Reactions to last week's PLA exercises around Taiwan, divergent reactions from policymakers in Taipei and Washington, and a new report on the process behind the Biden Administration's latest round of updates to the semiconductor export controls. At the end: President-elect Trump on his relationship with Xi Jinping, TikTok takes its case to the Supreme Court, and the NBA (sort of) announces plans for a series of preseason games in Macau.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the latest messaging from Beijing on efforts to stimulate the economy in 2025 and beyond. Topics include: Politburo language that echoes 2008, muted reactions from the mainland markets, why the ultimate policy decisions may not be made until the PRC has more clarity on Trump's intentions, and more. From there: Nvidia finds itself at the center of an antitrust probe, while the PRC restrictions on critical minerals are broader than initially thought, and drone components are now also being restricted from export to the US and Europe. At the end: Reviewing last Friday's verdict from the DC Circuit in TikTok v. Garland, and charting the next steps for TikTok and the Trump administration as January 19th approaches and TikTok faces a ban in the United States

This episode of Sharp China is free for everyone.

Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill return from the holiday break with reactions to the latest round updates to the US export controls on semiconductors. Topics include: Why some think the updates are weaker than they should’ve been, takeaways from the past two years of chip controls, TikTok’s new hopes, and whether the U.S. has now passed the peak of tough-on-China policies. From there: The suspension of Admiral Miao Hua, member of the Central Military Commission and director of the Political Work Department of the PLA, reports (and denials) that Defense Minister Dong Jun is under investigation, and thoughts on the way into the CEWC after November comes and goes without a public announcement of a Politburo meeting. At the end: Trump threatens 100% tariffs over a BRICS currency that does not yet exist, Beijing continues to guess at Trump’s objectives with tariff policy, the latest on the US telecommunications hack, and good news for unfairly maligned grandmothers in the PRC.

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Related Readings:

No mention of November Politburo meeting; US updates chip controls; Xi on the BRI; Lai in Hawaii; Miao Hua; US-China prisoner swap -- Sinocism

CEWC; Reactions to chip controls; Studying Xi Thought on Culture -- Sinocism

Commerce Strengthens Export Controls to Restrict China’s Capability to Produce Advanced Semiconductors for Military Applications -- BIS

Biden tightens tech controls on China as clock ticks down -- WaPo

Biden’s Final Export Control Salvo Misfires by ChinaTalk

The True Impact of Allied Export Controls on the U.S. and Chinese Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment Industries -- CSIS- Greg Allen

How TikTok’s Trump Whisperer Changed Minds in Washington -- WSJ

High-ranking military official in China suspended and placed under investigation -- AP

China’s defence minister placed under investigation for corruption -- FT

China probes top officer discipline ‘violations’ -- FT

China's Top Leaders to Meet to Discuss Stimulus Plans, Economic Targets for 2025 - Bloomberg

Trump threatens 100% tariff on Brics nations if they try to replace dollar -- BBC

Faced with Trump’s Tariff Outburst, Beijing is Looking For a Way In -- WSJ

Emerging Details of Chinese Hack Leave U.S. Officials Increasingly Concerned -- N.Y. Times

China Tells Drama Creators: No More Evil Grandmothers -- Sixth Tone

To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:

Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.

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This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin by parsing the PRC readout from this weekend's meeting between XI Jinping and President Joe Biden, including the four red lines communicated by the PRC to the US, PRC language surrounding enhanced security ties between the US and pacific allies, and a farewell to the San Francisco vision. From there: Xi Jinping's message to APEC and the charm offensive planned for a Trump administration, China's calculus amid global climate initiatives, and extended thoughts on the recent mass casualties events around China and likely party responses. At the end: An update on the Trump transition, Howard Lutnick is picked to run the Commerce Department, and Apple and Google's calculus with respect to the TikTok law. 

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Friday's announcement from the NPC standing committee and more incremental stabilization measures from PRC leadership. Topics include: Foreign investors (again) hoping for more, "deepening reforms" and domestic consumption, the trade surplus with the US exceeds the trillion dollar threshold, and why …

This episode of Sharp China is free for everyone.

Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill talk through a second Donald Trump presidency and what it might mean for US-China relations. Topics include: a note of congratulations from Xi Jinping Thursday morning, memories of the first Trump presidency, the calculus from both sides as tariffs loom, a larger toolkit of responses to trade policy for the PRC, potential intermediaries between Trump's administration and PRC leadership, and the strategic challenges and opportunities that China sees in a Trump administration. At the end: TikTok’s fate and whether Trump will save the app’s future in the United States, additional details on the Salt Typhoon telecommunications hack, and thoughts on the Biden administration's approach to the PRC, and the challenges facing any U.S. administration.

Subscribe to Sinocism here.

Subscribe to Stratechery here.

You can listen to the podcasts in the Substack app:

Or click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player.

Related Readings:

Trump 2.0 and the PRC -- Sinocism 

Xi congratulates Trump; Social work and stability; "Stimulus" rumors; October exports surge; TikTok; Hack of US telecoms -- Sinocism 

China congratulates Trump, says it respects America's choice -- Reuters 

China Learns How to Get Trump’s Ear: Through Jared Kushner -- NYT (2017) 

Spotlight: Xi-Trump meeting helps achieve much friendlier tone in China-U.S. ties: experts - Xinhua (2017)

Donald Trump’s trade remedies reflect America’s troubled reality -- FT 

Markets Are Underpricing the Possibility of a U.S.-China Economic War -- Foreign Policy 

Chinese officials struggle to build ties with Donald Trump’s campaign -- FT 

Americans Who Want to Do Business in China Need to Meet This Man -- WSJ 

What Trump's win means for Ukraine, Middle East and China -- BBC 

Americans, your calls and texts can be monitored by Chinese spies -- WaPo 

Chinese hackers gained access to huge trove of Americans’ cell records -- Politico 

China Hack Enabled Vast Spying on U.S. Officials, Likely Ensnaring Thousands of Contacts -- WSJ

Trudeau government bans TikTok from operating in Canada — but Canadians can still use it -- CBC

TikTok Sees Trump Victory As App’s Best Hope -- The Information 

To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:

Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.

The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.

If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player.

Thanks for listening.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with an excellent report from Semi Analysis, and the state of the U.S. export controls on semiconductors and chipmaking equipment. Topics include: New reports of TSMC sales to Huawei-linked firms, the Commerce Department's oversight of chip controls, the various loopholes being routinely exploited by SMIC, Huawei and related entities, and enforcement questions for future administrations. From there: The NPC Standing Committee meeting is set for next week, the latest reports on what might be announced, and questions concerning the timing of the meeting, which will coincide with the US election. At the end: The PRC's crackdown on the private tutoring industry might be lifting, and reports that Chinese hackers targeted data from both Presidential campaigns.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Xi Jinping's visit to the16th BRICS Summit and Russia's rumored effort to build a platform for international payments that would be immune to Western sanctions. From there: The Power of Siberia-2 pipeline that may or may not materialize, waiting for news on the next meeting of the NPC standing committee, and one theory on how the US election could impact the timing of the next fiscal announcement. Then: Xi's visit to a PLA Rocket Force brigade in Anhui, the rhetoric Xi uses surrounding the PLA and its readiness, and thoughts on the continued buildout of the PRC nuclear arsenal. At the end: A note on Taiwan's energy security, clarity on the names of the National Zoo’s new pandas, and a flurry of reports and questions surrounding Huawei, TSMC and the Commerce Department's oversight of export controls on chipmaking equipment.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that the PRC has sent two pandas to the National Zoo in Washington D.C., as Qing Bao, a 3-year-old year-old female, and Bao Li, a 3-year-old male, begin a 30-day quarantine in the Panda House. Then: Takeaways from Monday's Operation Joint Sword 2024B around Taiwan, including the strategic value of these military exercises for the PRC, and the implications of normalizing this pattern of behavior. From there: Parsing the “stimulus” news over the last several days, including the strain on local governments, why reports suggest that Xi and the central government are taking action to help them, and heightened scrutiny on overseas investments. At the end: Following up on Bill's conversation about the 2024 US Election, a Financial Times report on PRC educators ordered to surrender their passport, and an emailer provides a look at the new quality productive forces in dentistry.  

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the market's reactions to the NDRC press briefing on Tuesday, as Hong Kong saw all of last week's gains erased, while the PRC markets continued to see gains. Topics include: Misplaced expectations on the NDRC press conference, a National People's Congress meeting later in October that may articulate more concrete measures, and more thoughts on the continued volatility in the market themselves as well as commentary around the world. From there: An emailer has a question about a potential ByteDance IPO, a note on the broader concerns that persist in the PRC, and the EU passes tariffs on PRC EVs. At the end: A note on Taiwan National Day and the potential for an Operation Joint Sword 2024B, and a listener notes that Xi Jinping is leaving China far less frequently than he once did.