Sharp China Podcast

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with reports that next year's five-year plan will double down on the Made in China 2025 strategy. Topics include: The legacy and successes of Made in China 2025, ferocious domestic competition in industries like electric vehicles, and an aspect of self-reliance that continues to elude modern leadership. From there: A report that the EU is ready to work with the US on China policies of its own, why the EU and PRC have struggled to form an alliance, and why the detente between the US and China is looking increasingly fragile. At the end: The MSS warns of espionage, Czechia accuses the MSS of hacking its Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and an emailer has questions about Xi and his political rivals.

Related Readings:

National Digital Identity System -- Sinocism

US-China Geneva"détente" may be breaking; US to start revoking PRC student visas; China-PIC meeting; EV sector bloodbath coming? -- Sinocism

Xi Mulls New Made-in-China Plan Despite US Call to Rebalance -- Bloomberg

The lessons from China’s dominance in manufacturing -- FT

Was Made in China 2025 Successful? -- Rhodium Group

Chinese EV Stocks Tumble After BYD Slashes Prices as Much as 34% -- Bloomberg

Why Trump Lashed Out at Europe Over Trade -- WSJ

The problems with China’s efforts to patch things up with Europe: ‘there are limits’ -- SCMP

US Warns Pirelli Risks Restrictions Due to Chinese Investor -- Bloomberg

U.S. Pauses Exports of Airplane and Semiconductor Technology to China -- NYT

Post from Jan Lipavsky -- X

Belgium bugged Anderlecht football stadium to spy on Huawei MEP lobbying -- Politico EU

The Conscience of the Party -- Harvard University Press

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the Commerce Department's guidance on Ascend Chips, caustic responses to that policy on the PRC side, citations to the "Geneva Consensus," and the news the U.S. will be partnering with Saudi Arabia and the UAE on AI investments in a move that may limit PRC influence in the region. From there: Reactions to a New York Times op-ed about divergent policy trajectories for the US and China, comments from Ding Xuexiang on accelerating technological self-reliance, and questions about the US retaining and recruiting global talent. At the end: Rogue communication devices are reportedly found in Chinese solar power inverters, and a word about diamonds.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Sharp China: A 90-Day Pause, Big Tariff Reductions and What De-Escalation Might Mean for the U.S. and China

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill gather on short notice with reactions to Monday's news of a deal between the U.S. and China to significantly reduce tariffs for ninety days, while establishing a formal dialogue mechanism to discuss trade and economic issues. Topics include: Why a pause made sense for both sides, Trump's reference to the PRC and its "non-monetary barriers," the wins and opportunities that the PRC may see after the past several days, and the risks to the U.S. side as the rest of the world processes the past six weeks of policy choices.

This episode of Sharp China is outside the paywall.

Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that the US and PRC are sending representatives to Switzerland to discuss trade talks this weekend. Topics include: Why expectations should be set low, the week of signs that the PRC was willing to engage, questions about cooperating on fentanyl, and the latest measures to loosen monetary policy in Beijing. From there: An email about Chinese data spawns a conversation about increasing data opacity, and challenges for Westerners and the party alike. At the end: Thoughts on the PRC’s relationship to Russia as Xi Jinping heads to Moscow, the consequences (or lack thereof) for the PRC’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, and reactions to a pair of CIA videos recruiting disaffected party members.

You can listen to the podcast in the Substack app:

Or click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player.

Subscribe to Sinocism here.

Subscribe to the Stratechery bundle here.

Related Readings:

US-China trade talks; Xi arrives in Russia; Xi's history lesson; Rate cuts and moderately more supportive policies -- Sinocism

Ministry of Commerce Spokesperson Answers Reporters’ Questions on China–U.S. High-Level Economic and Trade Talk -- Sinocism

US-China Trade Talks to Start This Week as Tariffs Start to Bite -- Bloomberg

US Treasury's Bessent says China 'negotiations' to start Saturday without Navarro -- Reuters

As China Looks for Way Out of U.S. Trade Deadlock, Fentanyl Could Be Key -- N.Y. Times

How Bad Is China’s Economy? The Data Needed to Answer Is Vanishing -- WSJ

Xi Jinping’s Moscow visit highlights China’s strategic vulnerabilities -- Brookings

Full text of Xi's signed article in Russian media -- State Council

Exclusive — Rubio Details How Trump Going on Offense Against China’s Belt and Road Initiative: ‘Big Story of 21st Century U.S.-China Relations’ -- Breibart

CIA looks to recruit new Chinese spies with social media videos -- Financial Times

To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:

Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.

The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.

If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player.

Thanks for listening.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Sharp China: ‘Protracted War’ and ‘Struggle’; The Looming Risks for the PRC; A Politburo Study Session on AI; Apple’s Attempt to Pivot

Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill take stock of the trade war one month after “Liberation Day.” Topics include: Domestic messaging on “struggle” and external promises to never kneel down, the risks facing the PRC as US tariffs threaten to compound overcapacity controversies and invite heightened scrutiny around the world, Week 3 of speculation on whether the US and China are negotiating on trade, and why talk of a resolution and return to the March status quo seems increasingly unrealistic. At the end: The April Politburo meeting reflects both caution and confidence, a study session on AI spells bad news for Nvidia, thoughts on Apple’s story in China as the company tries to relocate US iPhone assembly to India, and Netflix gets the last laugh 15 years after being rebuffed by PRC censors.

Related Readings:

Xi inspects Shanghai, talks AI and Global South; "不跪/Never kneel down"; AI; Jack Ma and Huang Youlong -- Sinocism

April Politburo Study Session on AI is bad news for Nvidia -- Sinocism

Today, it is necessary to revisit On Protracted War. -- Beijing Daily

Never Kneel Down -- Ministry of Foreign Affairs on X

China exempts some goods from US tariffs -- Reuters

US tariffs could endanger 16 million export jobs in China: Goldman Sachs -- SCMP

Emerging markets set to become battlegrounds in trade war -- FT

Trump says Xi called him, lays out trade and other deal plans in Time interview -- Reuters

Exclusive: Trump officials eye changes to Biden's AI chip export rule, sources say -- Reuters

Apple aims to source all US iPhones from India in pivot away from China -- FT

Apple’s India Manufacturing Push Faces Spoilers, Including China -- The Information

Apple in China: The Capture of the World's Greatest Company -- Patrick McGee

Netflix Co-CEO Says They’re Not in China Because ‘Not a Single Episode’ Cleared the Censorship Board -- IndieWire

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with Tuesday’s signals that the Trump administration may seek to deescalate its trade war, why Beijing may see it as confirmation that their patient approach is working, and questions about what’s next as the Trump messaging on trade changes by the day. From there: The PRC warns countries about cooperating with the US, and why the apparent US flip-flopping likely hurts their cause with third-party countries. At the end: A dispatch from Yiwu, more on PRC messages to third-party countries, and a listener’s note on Trump’s caustic approach to Canada.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill return to discuss the state of the trade war two weeks after “Liberation Day” and the imposition of a 145% tariff rate on PRC goods. Topics include: Reports of a Trump Admin strategy to isolate the PRC, daily talk of a deal with China from President Trump, himself, signals from the PRC side that they may be willing to negotiate, and the PRC cancels orders of Boeing planes. From there: A raft of news on Nvidia as the U.S. restricts the export of H20 chips to China, Jensen Huang visits Beijing for an appearance with He Lifeng, and questions for the future of Nvidia and U.S. chip policies more generally. At the end: China restricts the export of rare earths to the U.S., rare earths as a keystone to understanding broader U.S. supply chain challenges, "Red and Expert" anxiety 60 years later, and TikTok faces new uncertainty in the wake of the tariffs.

This episode of Sharp China is outside the paywall.

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill return to discuss the intensification of the US-China trade war, including tariffs of 104% beginning on Wednesday, the PRC's options to respond, how companies like Apple could be squeezed, and why this represents the lowest point for US-China relations in a very long time. Then: Exploring EU opportunities and challenges after Premier Li Qiang's call with EU President Ursula von der Leyen, the debunked report about South Korea and Japan cooperating with the PRC, and unpacking the risks and possibilities inherent to the course the US side has chosen over the past week. At the end: Reactions to the latest TikTok extension from President Trump, a report that Liu He's son is under investigation, and a new name for the gardening podcast that may be essential in the months to come.

You can listen to the podcast in the Substack app:

Or click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player.

Subscribe to Sinocism here.

Subscribe to Stratechery here.

Related Readings:

As the additional 50% US tariffs go into effect will the bottom fall out of the US-China relationship? -- Sinocism

Trump threatens 50% more tariffs on PRC; Trouble for Liu He's son; TikTok -- Sinocism

April 7 People's Daily on responses to US tariffs 集中精力办好自己的事 增强有效应对美关税冲击的信心 -- Sinocism

Apple’s China Problem, Apple in the Short Term, Tech’s Complement Risk -- Stratechery

China has the tools to weather Trump storm, Premier Li tells EU’s von der Leyen -- SCMP

China investigates ‘princeling’ amid crackdown on finance industry -- FT

Trump punts on TikTok deal — app gets another 75 days -- Politico

To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:

Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.

The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.

If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player.

Thanks for listening.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the China Development Forum, including China's messaging to foreign investors, revisiting the Mintz raids as five detained employees are finally released, no updates on a Xi-Trump meeting, and news in the EV space. From there: The US plans to revive shipbuilding capacity, the likely disruption if the US adopts the USTR recommendations to counter Chinese dominance, Michael Froman writes that China has remade the international system, and a few more thoughts on the CK Hutchison deal. At the end: Rumors swirl around He Weidong and others in the PLA, what the noise might signal, and news of a deep-sea cable cutter is accompanied by a reminder that China constructs and protects deep sea cable like no other.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-Te designating the PRC a “foreign hostile force,” the initial response from the PRC and potential responses to come, rumors surrounding CMC vice chairman He Weidong, and an email wondering about the defense of Taiwan as a core American interest. From there: Sources say Xi Jinping is “angered” by CK Hutchison's deal to sell its ports in Panama, and TikTok talks accelerate as Beijing remains silent on the issue and Oracle heads to Washington to pitch lawmakers on Project Texas 2.0. At the end: Trump says that Xi will visit the U.S. in the “not too distant future,” a question about Beijing's reaction to cuts from DOGE and Trump 2.0, a question on fentanyl, and a read on the memoir of a former Facebook exec.