Sharp China Podcast

This episode of Sharp China is outside the paywall.

Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill break down the latest deal between the US and China, beginning with details from the White House over the weekend, why the PRC is likely happy with a tactical retreat and the new status quo, and why stability is likely at least through April. From there: Why the PRC was motivated to deal despite its goals of eliminating tariffs and export controls, clarity about American pain points, questions about Congress and what comes next, and the costs of China’s strategy for the past month. At the end: Reporting on a doomed push from Nvidia to sell Blackwell chips to China, new subsidies for China’s AI leaders, a potential Nexperia resolution, and questions the forthcoming fentanyl cooperation between the US and China.

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Related Readings:

Outcomes of Trump-Xi meeting; No deal yet for Nvidia chips; Gaokao -- Sinocism

Xi at APEC; US-China deal; Rare earths; Nvidia thwarted by Trump officials; UK university censors over Xinjiang -- Sinocism

Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Strikes Deal on Economic and Trade Relations with China -- The White House

Rare-Earth Magnet Startups Seal $1.4 Billion Deal With Trump Administration -- WSJ

Bringing Rare Earths Back -- Commonplace

Trump Says China Knows ‘Consequences’ of an Attack on Taiwan -- Bloomberg

President Donald Trump participates in a bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping - Photos - The White House

Sinocism Live: Rush Doshi on the Trump-Xi meeting and US-China Relations -- Sinocism

Trump Officials Torpedoed Nvidia’s Push to Export AI Chips to China -- WSJ

Watch CNBC’s full interview with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent -- CNBC

China offers tech giants cheap power to boost domestic AI chips -- FT

Auto giants rally as China says it will consider exemptions for Nexperia chip exports -- CNBC

Trump Says Xi Will Help Fight Fentanyl. Will China Follow Through? -- WSJ

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Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the looming Trump-Xi meeting in Seoul, South Korea, and the “consensuses” agreed upon in Kuala Lampur this past weekend. Topics include: Treasury Scott Bessent’s comments indicate that the recent rare earth export controls could be delayed by a year, questions about what the U.S. might have conceded to secure that delay, talk of removing fentanyl tariffs, how Beijing sees the US in 2025, and a Trump visit to Beijing that may portend relative stability in the short term. At the end: Parsing the five-year plan and two stories about the Chinese economy, the scale of Europe’s Nexperia problem becomes clearer, and thoughts on the challenge facing Europe and the United States as they attempt to build secure supply chains in the years to come.

Related Readings:

Latest US-China “framework”; EU’s rare earths stress; 80th Anniversary of Taiwan’s Restoration; Financial Street Forum; PLA; B30A chips -- Sinocism

Fourth Plenum communiqué; New CMC vice chair; US-China meetings; Nexperia mess; PRC AI in Global South -- Sinocism

US, China Tee Up Sweeping Trade Deal for Trump, Xi to Finish -- Bloomberg

Trump Suggests He May Drop Probe on First-Term China Trade Deal -- Bloomberg

Trump, Xi to Discuss Lowering China Tariffs for Fentanyl Crackdown -- WSJ

Most-Wanted Fentanyl Producer Is Extradited to the U.S. After Brazen Escape -- Wall Street Journal

China, U.S. reach basic consensuses on arrangements to address respective trade concerns -- Xinhua

Trump is poised to end Washington’s Decade of the China Hawks -- Semafor

China Deepens Push for Tech Self-Reliance Ahead of US Talks

Netherlands-China chip war terrifies European car industry -- Politico

Why China keeps winning the trade war -- FT

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with questions surrounding the Fourth Plenum as it continues in Beijing this week. Topics include: The Party’s messaging on past successes, a timeline for policy announcements in the days and weeks to come, steps the Party may take to address consumption with its next Five-Year Plan, and the full spectrum of possibilities surrounding Xi and his succession plans. From there: Reactions to the news of PLA purges that became official last week, including why some explanatory theories make more sense than others and why the upheaval is not necessarily a positive signal for Taiwan. At the end: More notes on the trade war with the U.S., the plot thickens with Nexperia and the Netherlands, a new website for Andrew’s writing, and an update on Yang Hansen in Portland.

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Related Readings:

Fourth Plenum; PLA cases; US-China; Q3 GDP; US-Australia; Qin Gang -- Sinocism

PLA Daily Editorial: Unswervingly Carry the Anti-Corruption Struggle in the Military Through to the End 解放军报》社论：坚定不移把军队反腐败斗争进行到底-- PLA Daily

Forever Xi Jinping? Perhaps Not -- Sinocism

In China, a Forbidden Question Looms: Who Leads After Xi? -- N.Y. Times

China Ousts Top Military Officials as Xi Widens Graft Purge -- Bloomberg

Bessent, Chinese vice premier to meet to try to defuse US tariff hike -- Reuters

China targets five U.S. subsidiaries of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, sending shares down 8% -- CNBC

Dutch seized Nexperia over fears Chinese owners planned to move chip production to China -- SCMP

Nexperia China tells employees to ignore orders from Dutch head office -- SCMP

Apple to Build Tabletop Robot and Home Hub in Vietnam -- Bloomberg

Apple taps China’s BYD to build HomePod with screen, tabletop robot in Vietnam -- SCMP

Did Xi Jinping Just Have a Bad Moment? -- Sharp Text

To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:

Click on the “listen on” button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.

The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.

If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player.

Thanks for listening.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill react to the PRC’s announcement of expanded export controls on rare earths and related manufacturing equipment. Topics include: Why countries around the world were immediately concerned, clarifications offered from the PRC that may not allay those concerns, and why viewing these rules as a response to the recen…

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a mounting scandal in the UK after prosecutors dropped charges against two men accused of spying for China. Topics include: Fingers pointed and claims that PM Keir Starmer and his Labour appointees were unwilling to present evidence of China as an “enemy,” ongoing reluctance to target PRC foreign agents under a new UK enforcement scheme, and reports of Beijing’s latest play to move forward with its “mega embassy.” From there: The EU Commission proposes tariff hikes to shield its steel industry from PRC overcapacity, why talk of a trillion dollar resolution to the US-China trade war is probably overblown, and a soybean bailout prompts questions about U.S. agriculture priorities generally. At the end: Reports of a “China-linked plot” to throttle communications in New York City, and the NBA’s reunion with Chinese basketball fans continues in Macao and San Antonio.

Related Readings:

Labour secretly sabotaged China spy trial -- The Telegraph

China’s fifth-ranking official was suspect in dropped Westminster spy case -- The Guardian

UK government undermined China spying probe to protect Beijing ties, say officials -- FT

China threatened to retaliate against UK over foreign influence rules -- The Guardian

Water torture... China turns off the taps for British diplomats after row over ‘mega-embassy’ in London -- Daily Mail

Eyeing China, EU unveils sweeping measures to shield its struggling steel industry -- SCMP

China Urges Trump to Lift Security Curbs in Push for Deals -- Bloomberg

Trump bailout for trade-hit US farmers expected this week -- Reuters

Thwarted plot to cripple cell service in NY was bigger than first thought: Sources -- ABC

NBA basketball was huge in China. The league is hoping for a rebound. -- WaPo

This episode of Sharp China is outside the paywall.

Show Notes:

On today’s Andrew and Bill begin with President Trump’s executive order authorizing a proposal for a TikTok divestiture from ByteDance. Topics include: Why the proposed deal would be a win for ByteDance, China and the Trump administration, security concerns that haven’t necessarily been addressed, and signals that opposition to the deal across D.C. is likely to be muted. Then: A report that the PRC will seek a shift on U.S. Taiwan policy in the course of trade talks, Secretary Bessent floats potential counter-measures for the U.S., and soybean farmers continue to twist in the wind. At the end: Thoughts on the PRC’s new K Visa program to attract foreign tech talent, dates for the fourth plenum, a very interesting rumor about Xi and a revival of the Central Advisory Commission, reactions to a Jensen Huang podcast appearance last week, and BIS closes a big export control loophole.

You can listen to the podcast in the app:

Or click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player.

To subscribe to Sinocism, click here.

To subscribe to Stratechery, click here.

And if you enjoy this podcast please share it far and wide:

Related Readings:

Liu Haixing replaces Liu Jianchao; New leaders for Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jiangsu; Maritime law revisions target US actions; October Holiday -- Sinocism

September Politburo meeting; Fourth Plenum dates; US expands Entity listings; US TikTok deal -- Sinocism

Trump’s TikTok deal still worries GOP China hawks — but here’s why they’ll go along -- NY Post

Chairman Moolenaar Releases Statement on TikTok Deal -- The Select Committee on the CCP

Xi Is Chasing Huge Concession From Trump: Opposing Taiwan Independence -- WSJ

Bessent says aircraft engines, chemicals could be leverage in US-China talks -- Reuters

Russia is helping prepare China to attack Taiwan, documents suggest -- WaPo

China’s new K visa beckons foreign tech talent as US hikes H-1B fee -- Reuters

China Goes on Offense -- Foreign Affairs

NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner -- YouTube

‘More Hawkish Than When I Arrived’: A View From Inside China -- WSJ

US tightens export controls on Chinese companies -- FT

Central Advisory Commission - Wikipedia

To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:

Click on the “listen on” button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.

The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.

If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player.

Thanks for listening.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with last Friday’s call between Trump and Xi. Topics include: Plans for a meeting in South Korea and a Trump visit to Beijing early next year, whether summits on the horizon will lead to a period of stabilization, and why both sides may see the status quo as advantageous. From there: Parsing the latest reports concerning the TikTok sale, including unresolved questions surrounding the algorithm, sourced reporting that seems to change by the day, reactions in Washington that will shed light on next steps, and the CAC taking aim at short form video in the PRC. At the end: A note on the PRC and the Poland-Belarus border closure (which was re-opened after recording), and a look at the controversy swirling around Arc'teryx after an ill-advised fireworks display spawns outrage, investigations and boycotts.

Related Readings:

TikTok deal details still unclear; Xinjiang 70th anniversary; Fujian aircraft carrier flight tests; Arc’teryx makes a mess in Tibet -- Sinocism

Exclusive: China buys Argentine soybeans after tax drop, leaving US farmers sidelined -- Reuters

China prepares for long US soybean stand-off with huge Brazilian imports -- SCMP

Chairman Moolenaar Urges President Trump to Leverage Aviation Sector in Allied Response to China’s Rare Earth Export Restrictions -- Select Committee on the CCP

Chinese expert calls US lawmaker’s call for restricting Chinese airline landing rights over rare earths access ‘utterly absurd’ -- Global Times

Inside Trump’s deal to save TikTok -- Axios

TikTok’s algorithm to be licensed to US joint venture led by Oracle and Silver Lake -- AP

China’s ByteDance will get 1 of 7 board seats for TikTok’s US operations, official says -- Reuters

U.S. Government Is Expected to Get Multibillion-Dollar Fee in TikTok Deal -- WSJ

China Discusses Polish Border Closure With Belarus in Trade Hit -- Bloomberg

Poland’s Tusk to reopen Belarus border -- Politico (Published after recording)

Massive fireworks show for ad stunt in Tibet triggers blowback over environment fears -- SCMP

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the news of a “framework,” a consensus, and a possible deal to divest TikTok US from its parent company, ByteDance. Topics include: The many details yet to be resolved publicly, the unknown fate of the algorithm and its legal implications, messaging from both the US and PRC delegations in Madrid, th…

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin by looking back at last week’s Victory Day parade. Topics include: The domestic messaging from the PRC, cold war imagery from a regime that denounces cold war thinking, questions about the EU perspective, the implications of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, North Korea's relationship to the PRC, a hot mic moment between Xi and Putin, and President Trump's Truth Social post responding to the parade. From there: A flurry of US-China stories, including Nvidia in the New York Times, a Politico report on Pentagon priorities, and PRC hackers allegedly impersonating Rep. John Moolenaar. At the end: The State Council continues a push for increased sports consumption and investment, thoughts on LeBron James in the People's Daily and the NBA's return to China, and South Park tackles the Labubu craze.

Click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player.

Related Readings:

Joseph Torigian on Xi Zhongxun, Xi Jinping, Party History, and the 9.3 Parade -- Sinocism Live

Xi at virtual BRICS; US cognitive warfare; Yi Huiman; LeBron James in People's Daily; Asteroid defense -- Sinocism

Xi Jinping says world faces ‘peace or war’, as Putin and Kim join him for military parade -- The Guardian

The China-Russia- North Korea alliance that needs no name -- Lowy Institute

Parading China’s Nuclear Arsenal Out of the Shadows -- Next Gen Nuclear Network

Russia and China Sign Major Deal for New Gas Pipeline -- Bloomberg

Shale Gas Arithmetic -- Doomberg

How the Power of Siberia 2 Deal Could Reshape Global Energy -- CSIS

China paves way for renminbi fundraising by Russian energy giants -- FT

What Russia’s First Gas Pipeline to China Reveals About a Planned Second One -- Carnegie Endowment

Hot mic picks up Putin and Xi discussing organ transplants and immortality -- Reuters

Reuters withdraws Xi, Putin longevity video after China state TV pulls legal permission to use it -- Reuters

Beijing’s New Playbook for Trade Talks: Keep Talking but Give No Ground -- WSJ

Nvidia Comes Out Swinging as Congress Weighs Limits on China Chip Sales -- NYT

Pentagon plan prioritizes homeland over China threat -- Politico

Pentagon's National Defense Strategy draws from Vance speeches -- Nikkei

The Final Evolution of the GOP China Hawk Frauds -- History Does You

Chinese Hackers Pretended to Be a Top U.S. Lawmaker During Trade Talks -- WSJ

Kim-Xi meeting; Xi meets other leaders; "Slow bull market" possible?; Sports consumption; Historical revisionism -- Sinocism

LeBron James pens essay in Chinese state newspaper in sign NBA's China revival almost complete -- Reuters

篮球是连接彼此的桥梁（体谈）-- People's Daily

South Park Labubu Satanic Ritual Scene -- YouTube

To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:

Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.

The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.

If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player.

Thanks for listening.

This episode of Sharp China is outside the paywall.

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from the SCO Summit, including Xi's announcement of the Global Governance Initiative (GGI), outreach to the global south, and the PRC's warming relationship with India as Modi's first trip to China in seven years spawns anxiety in the US, and a variety of structural tensions remain. From there: Context for Beijing's recent efforts to correct the views of World War II, including efforts to recognize China's role in defeating Japan, contested accounts of the Communist Party's contributions, and contested understandings of the Potsdam Declaration. At the end: Mexico moots tariffs of their own, the US rescinds a waiver for SK Hynix and Samsung factories in China, and a few takeaways from Nvidia's earnings call last week.

You can listen to the podcast in the app:

Or click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player.

To subscribe to Sinocism, click here.

To subscribe to Stratechery, click here.

And if you enjoy this podcast please share it far and wide:

Related Readings:

SCO Summit in Tianjin; Xi proposes the Global Governance Initiative (GGI) 全球治理倡议; Xi in the media; Central Social Work Department -- Sinocism

Xi Uses Summit, Parade and History to Flaunt China’s Global Pull -- NYT

India Was the Economic Alternative to China. Trump Ended That. -- NYT

Scoop: White House believes Europe secretly undoing Ukraine war's end -- Axios

Upholding the correct view of WWII history -- People's Daily

Military parades and memory wars: China and Russia commemorate history to reimagine international order -- Brookings

Where were you in the World Anti-Fascist War? -- The Strategist

Forgotten Ally: China’s World War II, 1937-1945 -- Rana Mitter

Mexico to Raise Tariffs on Imports From China After US Push -- Bloomberg

Samsung, SK Hynix Lose US Waiver on Chip Gear for China Use -- Bloomberg

Nvidia earnings beat Wall Street’s sky-high expectations, but the stock fell because ‘there were no H20 sales to China-based customers’ -- Fortune

Why Nvidia Wants to Sell Chips to China, Answering Intel Objections, KPop Demon Hunters Conquers the World -- Sharp Tech

Live: Special coverage of China's grand gathering celebrating 80th anniversary of victory - YouTube

To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:

Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.

The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.

If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player.

Thanks for listening.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe