Sharp China Podcast

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from the Two Sessions, including good news for tech companies as the push for new quality productive forces continues, the rhetoric surrounding domestic consumption alongside modest stimulus measures so far, the NDRC's plan to mobilize 1 billion yuan to support the startup ecosystem, and more. From there: The PRC announces new tariffs on Canadian exports and state TV warns against Canada cooperating with the U.S. on tariffs, and dueling reports on a potential Trump-Xi meeting as communication remains frustrated between high level US and China leaders. At the end: Cuts to USAID provide a win to the PRC as China-watching NGOs go offline, a whistleblower highlights Facebook’s failed attempts to enter China, and TikTok rumors continue to churn as the apparent deadline for a sale approaches in April.

This episode of Sharp China is outside the paywall.

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Trump raising tariffs on the PRC by 10%, the PRC's response, and the phone call Xi-Trump phone call that was rumored a month ago but still hasn't happened. Then: What to watch for during Two Sessions week, Xi has always supported private enterprises, a response from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on fentanyl, and why the U.S. focusing on domestic enforcement only goes far. From there: A roundup of news on chips, including an investigation in Singapore, TSMC's investment in the United States, a Wall Street Journal report on Nvidia, and questions facing the Trump team as new policy takes shape. At the end: The New York Times reports on "plea leniency," FIFA won't play ball with the PRC, and a variety of Moutai thoughts as Kweichow Moutai struggles to find demand.

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Related Readings:

US Tariffs; Two Sessions; Xi has always supported private enterprises; Peaceful China Initiative; Chips -- Sinocism

Response to US tariffs; Two Sessions begin; DeepSeek -- Sinocism

FURTHER AMENDMENT TO DUTIES ADDRESSING THE SYNTHETIC OPIOID SUPPLY CHAIN IN THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA -- The White House

Xi Leaves Door Open for Talks With Measured Response to Trump -- Bloomberg

Statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs -- MoFA on Twitter

BlackRock to buy Panama Canal ports after pressure from Donald Trump -- FT

Canadian Police Say They Dismantled Country’s Largest Drug Lab -- NYT (Nov. 2024)

How Dirty Money From Fentanyl Sales Is Flowing Through China -- WSJ

Chinese Buyers Are Ordering Nvidia’s Newest AI Chips, Defying U.S. Curbs -- WSJ

Singapore Probes Potential Fraud in Nvidia AI Chip Shipments -- Bloomberg

Cover Story: DeepSeek Sets Up Race for Chinese Dominance in AI -- Caixin

Trump, Chip Maker TSMC Announce $100 Billion Investment in U.S. -- WSJ

The ‘Leniency’ Trap: How China’s Plea System Gives Prosecutors More Power -- N.Y.T.

China’s tech minister removed from office -- FT

Ebbing demand for China's favourite firewater adds to debt concerns -- Reuters

The Patrón of Xinghuacun - a modest proposal for Fenjiu -- by Moatless Musings

Xi Jiu, A Baijiu Bet on Xi Jinping -- Sinocism

Saving these for a celebration:

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This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin by parsing the White House's memorandum on an America First Investment Policy, President Trump's recent appointees, the latest news from the Commerce Department and BIS, and a proposal for lifting controls on chips and tightening controls on chipmaking equipment. From there: "Reverse Nixon" possibilities and structural realities that make it unlikely, document #1 and the party's priorities surrounding food security, a PRC fishing crew is detained for questioning after a Taiwan cable cutting incident, the significance of the PLA drills between Australia and New Zealand last week, and a word about lawfare and law firms.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today’s special crossover Sharp Tech/Sharp China episode, Ben Thompson and Bill Bishop discuss the private enterprise symposium and Xi Jinping's rapprochement with China's tech companies, and the connection between xAI and DeepSeek. Then, an extended debate on the chip ban, including its potential long-term consequences, and whether or not a course correction is possible. Finally, why the situation surround Taiwan is worrisome, and whether Trump is looking to make a deal.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin by talking through a first round of US tariffs on PRC goods and responses from the PRC earlier this week. Topics include: The fentanyl allegations that served as the predicate for these tariffs, Chinese responses that highlight points of leverage should trade tensions escalate, next steps in negotiations, and the end of the de minimis loophole. From there: Secretary of State Marco Rubio tours Latin America, the PRC's investments in Panama, and questions for the future of the Panama Canal. At the end: The PRC announces an investigation into Google, a Bloomberg report suggests Apple's being investigated for its app store policies, Apple's growth in China plateaus, and a few more thoughts on DeepSeek as Congress reacts and BIS gets a new leader.

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You can listen to the podcast in the Substack app:

Or click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player.

Related Readings:

To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:

Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.

The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.

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Thanks for listening.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill wish a Happy Lunar New Year to the audience and interrupt the holiday week in the PRC to share various reactions to a week of DeepSeek discussion in the U.S. Topics include: The DeepSeek origin story, OpenAI and distillation questions, DeepSeek’s future in China after Liang Wenfeng’s meeting with Li Qiang, how…

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.com

Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the fate of TikTok after a wild week of updates. Topics include: A ByteDance investor who says that TikTok may continue in the U.S. without a full divestiture, lessons for the PRC and US from the past few weeks, and why potential TikTok buyers might be wary of any deal structure that doesn't comply with the letter of federal law. Then: Week 1 of the Trump presidency provides some breathing room to both sides of the US-China tariff negotiations, why negotiations may not yield any structural relief to the US-China trade tensions, updates on the PRC economy, and why Beijing may be wary of a currency devaluation in the face of a new round of tariffs. At the end: Two updates on Taiwan, why the Taiwanese may want to choose better intermediaries to the U.S. government, and the absence of US-China tensions in Hollywood.

Thanks everyone who tuned into today’s live video with Andrew Sharp to discuss the SCOTUS decision about TikTok and what may be next for the app in the US. We are still in beta please so excuse the chatter for the first 40 seconds or so

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This episode of Sharp China is free for everyone.

Show Notes:

On today’s show Bill and Andrew begin with multiple reports that Chinese officials have considered working with Elon Musk to find a resolution for TikTok in the U.S., while TikTok‘s users have flocked to Xiaohongshu and inspired a few more questions for the future. Then: Parsing Xi Jinping’s speech in the first 2025 issue of Qiushi, why both the substance of his message and his audience heighten concerns, and reactions to a new fleet of barges in Guangzhou that could factor into the PRC’s plans for Taiwan. At the end: U.S.-China updates, including a final rule from the U.S. on connected vehicles, proposed rules on AI chips, more alarms being sounded on PRC hacking, looming tech bro fissures, and the emissary from the PRC who may attend next week’s presidential inauguration.

Subscribe to Sinocism here.

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You can listen to the podcasts in the Substack app:

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Related Readings:

RMB signaling; Trade surplus; New US AI export rules; TikTok to become XTok? -- Sinocism

Xi chats with European Council President Antonio Costa; US rule on connected vehicles; RMB talk; Supply chain binding; TikTok -- Sinocism

China Weighs Sale of TikTok US to Musk as a Possible Option -- Bloomberg

China discussing using Elon Musk as broker in TikTok deal -- FT

China Officials Discuss Option of TikTok Sale to Elon Musk -- WSJ

US netizens calling themselves ‘TikTok refugees’ migrate to Chinese social media app ahead of US Supreme Court ruling -- Global Times

TikTok crisis builds unlikely ‘cyberspace bridge’ between US and China -- Semafor

Xi in Qiushi - Comprehensively Advancing the Building of a Strong Country and the Great Cause of National Rejuvenation Through Chinese Modernization -- Sinocism

China’s Trade Surplus Reaches a Record of Nearly $1 Trillion -- NYT

China Suddenly Building Fleet Of Special Barges Suitable For Taiwan Landings -- Naval News

Post by John Culver -- John Culver on X

Commerce Finalizes Rule to Secure Connected Vehicle Supply Chains from Foreign Adversary Threats -- BIS

U.S. Targets China With New AI Curbs, Overriding Nvidia’s Objections -- WSJ

Former FBI Director Chris Way on 60 Minutes -- Face the Nation on X

How Chinese Hackers Graduated From Clumsy Corporate Thieves to Military Weapons -- WSJ

Jan. 6, 2025: Giant Pandas Bao Li and Qing Bao Play In The Snow -- YouTube

To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:

Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.

The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.

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Thanks for listening.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

We decided to do a short, free episode to discuss the Supreme Court’s decision to take up TikTok’s case before the January 19th deadline.

Show Notes:

On a bonus episode following up on Wednesday morning's show, Andrew and Bill react to the news—which broke later Wednesday morning—that the Supreme Court has granted cert to TikTok in its appeal of the D.C. Circuit's decision earlier this month upholding the Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act. Topics include: A bit more hope for TikTok, revisiting the D.C. Circuit’s answer to the First Amendment question that’s now before the Supreme Court, various Trump unknowns, and a busy holiday season for Jones Day associates.

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Related:

Supreme Court Fast-Tracks TikTok Case in Face of Jan. 19 Deadline -- N.Y. Times

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/18/us/politics/supreme-court-tiktok-ban.html

TIKTOK INC. AND BYTEDANCE LTD v. MERRICK GARLAND -- D.C. Circuit

https://media.cadc.uscourts.gov/opinions/docs/2024/12/24-1113-2088317.pdf

To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:

Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.

The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.

If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player.

Thanks for listening.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe