This episode offer a comprehensive overview of the Shiller PE ratio, a key metric for valuing the stock market over the long term. They begin by tracing its intellectual origins from Graham and Dodd's concept of smoothed earnings to Robert Shiller and John Campbell's formal application to the S&P 500, explaining its calculation and primary advantage in reducing earnings volatility for a clearer valuation picture. The text then presents the ratio's historical record of predicting market declines, citing examples from the 1929 crash to more recent downturns, and quantitatively demonstrates its strong correlation with subsequent long-term returns. Finally, the sources critically examine modern critiques of the Shiller PE, addressing how changes in accounting, share buybacks, market composition (rise of technology), and interest rate environments may impact its relevance, before concluding with guidance on its strategic application for investors in the contemporary market.

📚 Value Investing Books Recommendation

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Warren Buffett

The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life

Kindle: https://amzn.to/3FVasqy

Hardcover: https://amzn.to/3HIfeZ2

Paperback: https://amzn.to/4kBjUOZ

Warren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements (by Marry Buffett)

Kindle: https://amzn.to/43Vr5dD

Hardcover: https://amzn.to/4n6yNus

Paperback: https://amzn.to/45XBBDL

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Charlie Munger

Poor Charlie’s Almanack

Kindle: https://amzn.to/3Zsw9VB

Hardcover: https://amzn.to/4jMExq7

Collector's Edition: https://amzn.to/3SRgsn7

Tao of Charlie Munger

Kindle: https://amzn.to/4nk0akT

Hardcover: https://amzn.to/44eq8OR

Influence, New and Expanded: The Psychology of Persuasion

Kindle: https://amzn.to/4619DqL

Hardcover: https://amzn.to/40a8TMi

Paperback: https://amzn.to/40gtwq7

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Howard Marks

The Most Important Thing (Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor)

Kindle: https://amzn.to/3Tqb4Yg

Hardcover: https://amzn.to/3SRyy8A

Paperback: https://amzn.to/45ohdM0

Mastering The Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side

Kindle: https://amzn.to/3HXPmby

Hardcover: https://amzn.to/45X6AQq

Paperback: https://amzn.to/44oPGYP

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Money Philosophies

The Psychology of Money: Timeless lessons on wealth, greed, and happiness

Kindle: https://amzn.to/3FDbO9u

Hardcover: https://amzn.to/4kL3TGi

Paperback: https://amzn.to/44fpkcC

Limited Gift Version: https://amzn.to/4jYomGp

Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes

Kindle: https://amzn.to/3HXBJcp

Hardcover: https://amzn.to/4l7vPno

Paperback: https://amzn.to/4k2ZHRe

The Almanack of Naval Ravikant: A Guide to Wealth and Happiness

Kindle: https://amzn.to/4lx2a7F

Hardcover: https://amzn.to/4kGX5tf

Paperback: https://amzn.to/3ZEMXsC

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Classic Principles

The Intelligent Investor

Kindle: https://amzn.to/45T9OEv

Hardcover: https://amzn.to/4l4f7W3

Paperback: https://amzn.to/43ZNyXb

Security Analysis, Seventh Edition: Principles and Techniques

Kindle: https://amzn.to/442yKak

Hardcover: https://amzn.to/3TmEEhg

Margin of Safety: Risk-Averse Value Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor

Collector Edition: https://amzn.to/4lrgWNd

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Disclaimer: All analysis is based on publicly available sources and may be subject to revisions or differing interpretations. The content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions. Like and Subscribe us on Apple, Spotify Podcasts or Youtube channel: Deep Value Investing! Don’t forget to take the book list of value investing from the episode description! ❤️To support us and bring a Buffett Indicator App alive: https://www.gofundme.com/f/turning-buffetts-wisdom-into-a-daily-tool-for-investors 🎗️