Skymet Podcast

In this episode of the Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President – Skymet Meteorology & Climate Change, analyses the August–September monsoon outlook and what it means for the rest of the season.

After a weak start in June, the monsoon recovered well in July, but the season still carries a 12% rainfall deficit. Skymet forecasts 92% of normal rainfall for August and 89% for September, keeping both months close to normal.

However, the strengthening El Niño could put pressure on August rainfall. Can a Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) offset its impact? Why could rainfall activity shift towards East and Northeast India, and what could this mean for Western, Central and Southern India?

The episode also looks at Kharif sowing, rainfall deficits and the challenges ahead for rain-fed agriculture.

Listen to the full episode for an expert assessment of how the monsoon could shape up in the final two months of the season.

this special episode of the Skymet Podcast, AVM G.P. Sharma, President – Meteorology & Climate Change, Skymet Weather, analyses the current monsoon situation, the growing influence of El Niño, and the rainfall trends expected in the coming days.

India’s rainfall deficit reached 40% in June, improved to 14% in early July, and rose again to 21% by July 14. The monsoon is currently not in a conventional “break” phase, but experiencing uneven rainfall distribution—with East and Northeast India receiving more rain, while parts of Central, Western, Northern and Southern India continue to face deficits.

The episode also explores the new low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal, the regions likely to receive rainfall, and whether it could bring relief to rainfall-deficient areas.

Listen in for an expert assessment of the evolving monsoon pattern and what lies ahead.

In this special podcast, AVM GP Sharma, President – Meteorology & Climate Change, Skymet Weather, provides an in-depth analysis of the current monsoon scenario, the growing influence of El Niño, and the weather trends expected in the coming days.

Find out why India’s rainfall deficit reached nearly 40% in June, how it improved to 14% at the beginning of July, and then increased again to 21% by July 14.

The monsoon is currently not in a conventional “break” phase, but rather going through a period of uneven rainfall distribution. While East and Northeast India are receiving more rainfall, several parts of Central, Western, Northern and Southern India continue to face rainfall deficiencies.

In this episode, we also discuss the new low-pressure area developing over the Bay of Bengal, the states likely to be affected, whether this system could bring relief to rainfall-deficient regions, and how the monsoon may behave over the coming days.

Listen to the full episode to understand the evolving monsoon pattern across India and what lies ahead.

In this podcast, Skymet’s Jatin Singh (MD), GP Sharma (President), and Mahesh Palawat (Vice President) present a detailed analysis of the Monsoon 2026 forecast.

The team projects that the monsoon is likely to be around 6% below normal, placing it in the below-normal category (90%–95% of the Long Period Average), while 96%–104% is considered normal.

A key driver this season is the expected development of El Niño, which may begin with the onset of the monsoon and intensify by late July. While June may not see significant impact, monsoon weakness is likely to set in from July onward, with August and September expected to witness notably reduced rainfall.

Interestingly, after years of subdued rainfall, East and Northeast India—including Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, and northeastern states—may receive normal to above-normal rainfall. In contrast, Northwest, Central, and parts of West India—Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra—are likely to experience below-normal rainfall.

Overall, nearly 60% of the country could face reduced rainfall due to El Niño conditions. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently expected to remain neutral to slightly positive, but may not be strong enough to offset El Niño’s adverse impact, keeping the monsoon under pressure.

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In this episode of the Skymet Podcast, weather expert Mahesh Palawat discusses the weather outlook for the next 2–3 days and up to a week, helping listeners plan their Christmas and holiday travel more safely.

The episode focuses on Delhi-NCR, where falling temperatures have led to persistent cold and chilly conditions. It also explains how recent changes in wind speed and direction have contributed to an improvement in air quality, and what this means in the days ahead.

Listeners will also get insights into:

• Fog conditions across North India’s plains
• Weather trends over hill states
• What to expect at popular tourist destinations
• Weather-based travel precautions for the holiday period

In this episode of the Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President – Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, explains the science behind the Polar Vortex in clear and simple terms.

The Polar Vortex is a powerful circulation of extremely cold air and low pressure that typically remains confined over the North and South Poles. However, when this system weakens or becomes unstable, cold air can spill southwards—triggering sudden cold waves, snowfall, and extreme winter conditions across Canada, the United States, Europe, and at times North India.

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The episode explores the role of the jet stream, atmospheric layers, and global warming in influencing the behaviour of the Polar Vortex. With ongoing climate change, the vortex is becoming increasingly irregular and unpredictable, making winter weather more volatile across the globe.

In this episode of the Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President – Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, explains the science of air pollution and its complex relationship with climate change in simple, accessible terms.

Large parts of North India, particularly Punjab, Haryana, Delhi-NCR, and Uttar Pradesh, are currently among the most polluted regions in the country, with AQI levels persistently in the ‘Severe’ to ‘Hazardous’ category. Forecasting pollution remains a major challenge as it depends on multiple weather factors such as wind patterns, temperature, cloud cover, and rainfall.

The episode explores how pollution particles influence solar short-wave radiation and Earth’s long-wave radiation. Due to heavy aerosol loading over regions like South Asia, increased reflection leads to a temporary cooling effect, resulting in a relatively lower contribution to global warming compared to greenhouse gases.

However, while aerosols may slightly offset warming, their impact on human health is severe—contributing to asthma, COPD, lung diseases, cardiovascular issues, and nervous system disorders.

In this episode of the Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President – Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, breaks down the evolving La Niña scenario and its implications for India’s weather.

El Niño and La Niña are key global climate drivers that influence weather patterns across the world, including India. In recent years, their impacts have shown noticeable shifts from historical trends. According to current assessments, the upcoming La Niña is expected to be weak and short-lived, active mainly between December and February.

This could result in slightly below-normal temperatures over North India, with brief cold-wave–like conditions at times, though the likelihood of extreme cold or severe weather remains low. Rainfall during the season is likely to be normal or marginally above normal.

The episode also explains how changes in sea surface temperatures, driven by El Niño and La Niña, interact with global warming and influence India’s monsoon behaviour.

In this episode of the Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, explains the track, potential impact, and most affected regions of Cyclone Montha. The storm is currently active near 12°N and 85°E and may intensify into a severe cyclonic storm within the next few hours. Montha is expected to make landfall near Kakinada coast in Andhra Pradesh by tomorrow evening, bringing winds up to 90 km/h and heavy rainfall. Coastal areas including Kakinada, Rajahmundry, Konaseema, Visakhapatnam, and Machilipatnam are on alert. Authorities have closed schools and colleges, begun evacuation efforts, and warned of possible disruptions to rail, road, and air services.