In this podcast, Skymet’s Jatin Singh (MD), GP Sharma (President), and Mahesh Palawat (Vice President) present a detailed analysis of the Monsoon 2026 forecast.

The team projects that the monsoon is likely to be around 6% below normal, placing it in the below-normal category (90%–95% of the Long Period Average), while 96%–104% is considered normal.

A key driver this season is the expected development of El Niño, which may begin with the onset of the monsoon and intensify by late July. While June may not see significant impact, monsoon weakness is likely to set in from July onward, with August and September expected to witness notably reduced rainfall.

Interestingly, after years of subdued rainfall, East and Northeast India—including Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, and northeastern states—may receive normal to above-normal rainfall. In contrast, Northwest, Central, and parts of West India—Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra—are likely to experience below-normal rainfall.

Overall, nearly 60% of the country could face reduced rainfall due to El Niño conditions. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently expected to remain neutral to slightly positive, but may not be strong enough to offset El Niño’s adverse impact, keeping the monsoon under pressure.

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In this episode of the Skymet Podcast, weather expert Mahesh Palawat discusses the weather outlook for the next 2–3 days and up to a week, helping listeners plan their Christmas and holiday travel more safely.

The episode focuses on Delhi-NCR, where falling temperatures have led to persistent cold and chilly conditions. It also explains how recent changes in wind speed and direction have contributed to an improvement in air quality, and what this means in the days ahead.

Listeners will also get insights into:

• Fog conditions across North India’s plains
• Weather trends over hill states
• What to expect at popular tourist destinations
• Weather-based travel precautions for the holiday period

In this episode of the Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President – Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, explains the science behind the Polar Vortex in clear and simple terms.

The Polar Vortex is a powerful circulation of extremely cold air and low pressure that typically remains confined over the North and South Poles. However, when this system weakens or becomes unstable, cold air can spill southwards—triggering sudden cold waves, snowfall, and extreme winter conditions across Canada, the United States, Europe, and at times North India.

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The episode explores the role of the jet stream, atmospheric layers, and global warming in influencing the behaviour of the Polar Vortex. With ongoing climate change, the vortex is becoming increasingly irregular and unpredictable, making winter weather more volatile across the globe.

In this episode of the Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President – Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, explains the science of air pollution and its complex relationship with climate change in simple, accessible terms.

Large parts of North India, particularly Punjab, Haryana, Delhi-NCR, and Uttar Pradesh, are currently among the most polluted regions in the country, with AQI levels persistently in the ‘Severe’ to ‘Hazardous’ category. Forecasting pollution remains a major challenge as it depends on multiple weather factors such as wind patterns, temperature, cloud cover, and rainfall.

The episode explores how pollution particles influence solar short-wave radiation and Earth’s long-wave radiation. Due to heavy aerosol loading over regions like South Asia, increased reflection leads to a temporary cooling effect, resulting in a relatively lower contribution to global warming compared to greenhouse gases.

However, while aerosols may slightly offset warming, their impact on human health is severe—contributing to asthma, COPD, lung diseases, cardiovascular issues, and nervous system disorders.

In this episode of the Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President – Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, breaks down the evolving La Niña scenario and its implications for India’s weather.

El Niño and La Niña are key global climate drivers that influence weather patterns across the world, including India. In recent years, their impacts have shown noticeable shifts from historical trends. According to current assessments, the upcoming La Niña is expected to be weak and short-lived, active mainly between December and February.

This could result in slightly below-normal temperatures over North India, with brief cold-wave–like conditions at times, though the likelihood of extreme cold or severe weather remains low. Rainfall during the season is likely to be normal or marginally above normal.

The episode also explains how changes in sea surface temperatures, driven by El Niño and La Niña, interact with global warming and influence India’s monsoon behaviour.

In this episode of the Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, explains the track, potential impact, and most affected regions of Cyclone Montha. The storm is currently active near 12°N and 85°E and may intensify into a severe cyclonic storm within the next few hours. Montha is expected to make landfall near Kakinada coast in Andhra Pradesh by tomorrow evening, bringing winds up to 90 km/h and heavy rainfall. Coastal areas including Kakinada, Rajahmundry, Konaseema, Visakhapatnam, and Machilipatnam are on alert. Authorities have closed schools and colleges, begun evacuation efforts, and warned of possible disruptions to rail, road, and air services.

In this week’s Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, discusses in detail the formation and trajectory of the upcoming Cyclonic Storm “Montha (or Maantha)” over the Arabian Sea. The system is expected to develop as a low-pressure area around October 18–19 over the southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep region, gradually intensifying into a severe cyclonic storm. While the storm is unlikely to make landfall along the Indian coasts of Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, or Gujarat, it may bring strong winds and light to moderate rainfall to these coastal areas. The Sokotra Islands, Somalia, and Yemen coasts are likely to experience more severe impacts. The episode also touches on the withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon and the onset of the Northeast Monsoon, both expected to occur on the same day — October 16, marking a rare meteorological event.

In this week’s Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, shares insights as the Southwest Monsoon 2025 approaches its final phase. Recently, active systems over both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea have drawn the attention of meteorologists — especially Cyclone Shakti, the first major storm of the season, which followed an unusual and unpredictable track. The episode explores how this system originated near Gujarat, moved across the Arabian Sea, and why some global agencies classified it as a cyclone while India’s weather agency did not. Tune in to understand how tropical cyclones form, the role of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), and why storms over the Arabian Sea rarely impact Indian coastlines. The discussion also highlights the early signs of the Northeast Monsoon’s arrival.

In this week’s Skymet Podcast, AVM (Retd.) G.P. Sharma, President of Meteorology & Climate Change at Skymet, explains why the 2025 monsoon season has been unlike any other and how it will influence the coming months. The season, spanning June 1 to September 30, ended at 108% of the Long Period Average (LPA) — a remarkable record in recent decades. He discusses how El Niño, La Niña, and neutral conditions shaped the monsoon this year, leading to rainfall deficits in Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh, while Marathwada and Rayalaseema saw late recovery. The episode also delves into the declining rainfall trend in Northeast India, the impact of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and expert insights on the regional distribution of rainfall across the country.