As we navigate the final stretch of the year, many of us are feeling the economic constraints of the past year as the nation continues to battle inflation and higher costs. So what can we expect for the rest of December and next year? The National Association of Business Economics (NABE) has unveiled its latest outlook survey, shedding light on what lies ahead for the remainder of December and into the coming year. The organization's projections indicate a positive finish for 2023, with even stronger expectations compared to their October Outlook survey.

According to the NABE, the nation is expected to experience slower growth between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2024. Despite the optimism for the current year, the panelists are cautious about the trajectory of economic expansion in the near future. Notably, three out of four panelists have expressed concerns, suggesting a 50% chance of a recession within the next year.

“While most respondents expect an uptick in the unemployment rate going forward, a majority anticipates that the rate will not exceed 5%. Too much monetary policy tightness and broadening conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are cited as the largest downside risks for the U.S. economy,” NABE President and chief U.S. economist for Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, said in a statement.

“Panelists anticipate further slowing in core inflation—excluding food and energy costs—but doubt it will reach the Federal Reserve Board’s 2% target before year-end 2024,” commented NABE’s Outlook Survey Chair Mervin Jebaraj, who also serves as director for the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is poised to play a pivotal role in shaping the economic landscape, with its upcoming meeting scheduled for December 12th and 13th. At the end of this meeting, we will hear more from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on what happens next with interest rates.

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