Source: Ian M. Mackay (virologydownunder.com) and James T Reason. Illustration: Rose Wong.
Episode Transcript
Hey there, I'm Scott and this is Tangents.
It is the fifth of Subtemper Holy Shit, 2025.
I'm recording this 1342, not that you need to know that,
but this is my last day in Bangkok, this trip.
I'm flying back to the Tokyo tomorrow.
I've got to tell you, I feel so, I know I'm repeating myself here a little bit,
but I just love not being in the US.
Don't get me wrong, obviously.
I'm not getting the same experience as if I actually lived here to be fair.
And also, you know, not perfect.
Like I could come up with a thousand criticisms of Bangkok.
One of them certainly is that there are so many,
and this is also an Apple Maps criticism, so it's not exactly fair,
You can go down a street here, and I really like walking.
And I don't want to walk and backtrack down the same street over and over again.
But if you go down a street here and you're not careful,
You'll go down something and you'll think you're going to get around.
And then it just dead ends.
And Apple Maps will even show you that you can do it.
And you'll follow that, and then you'll get to a point,
and you just can't go any further.
You have to backtrack 15 minutes to get back to wherever the fuck you were.
So it means that you're doing a lot of backtracking,
and you're not really doing loops, or you do big loops.
Either way, not my favorite thing.
And you know, I mean, I could just go on, but I won't.
I like that I am a five-minute walk.
Literally like I'm looking out of my window in my hotel,
and I can see the MRT station,
one of the two metros that they have here.
Like if you look at, I was at a organic grocery store yesterday.
And it's just mind blowing.
How fucking cheap produces, for example.
But in the US, I, this was something I noticed when I was in Paris.
So this is not a new thing, although it's gotten much worse.
But when I lived in Paris, it was actually cheaper
to get food at the grocery store, significantly,
and then to make it, and you to home.
In the US, I've tried that, and I've tried,
like I've really worked on figuring out how to economize,
and vaguely healthier, and all this kind of stuff.
And it's hard, it's fucking hard.
You can do it, don't give me wrong.
And there are things you can do to, to save a little bit of money
by cooking at home, especially if you could be batches,
and you could for a few people, and this kind of stuff.
But for the most part, especially if you're just a single person
cooking for yourself, which a lot of people are,
because we don't have a good culture community.
If you're that, it kind of ends up being at least a wash
And the food that you're getting out is not going to be good for you.
And then that also saves you from cooking, which is a pain in the ass,
and all this kind of stuff.
I don't give you wrong, like I enjoyed making my pizzas.
Every once, once a week for a long time,
I was making pizzas when I lived in Arizona for about a year.
And it was a little delight.
It made my Saturdays kind of special.
It was a thing that I looked forward to.
It was like a little tradition that I had for myself.
Really liked it, but it was not cheap.
It was not really now, of course, pizza used to be super cheap,
and here it's still cheap.
But they're going out for pizza would have been ridiculously expensive
And anyway, I don't want to talk too much about this,
but it's just fucking, that's wild.
Anyway, what I do want to talk about is getting onto the subject.
I don't, not going to give you a 20 minute introduction,
like 45 minute introduction, like last time.
I guess I should say, next week,
I have a friend coming to Japan,
and we'll be kind of showing her around a little bit
and traveling with her, so,
won't be making one of these until about Sunday,
which means that you will not get another one of these probably
until after the 15th or theirabouts.
We'll see, there's some small possibility.
I also could record another one tomorrow if I'm inspired,
but probably be about a week, not a big deal.
Anyway, there are a bunch of articles,
and obviously, I've talked about this,
but we have a friend and family group chat,
and my mom likes to share,
well, we all kind of share articles,
but my mom was really most responsible for that show we say.
And, you know, today shared one that Florida
is no longer going to require vaccines,
so we have anti-vaccine here, RFK Junior,
in charge of health and human services.
just fucking Joker clown,
who's the surgeon general of Florida,
and I just read another article,
literally between the time I stopped making my notes,
and started recording this,
Georgia is not going to even offer
the updated COVID vaccines for the fall,
which, because of the guidance,
is unclear,
the situation in disposition is confusing.
We said, simply, right now there is a giant wave going on.
And also, like, I really,
this is not getting into the stuff
that I want to talk about specifically,
but I do want to say,
even ignoring long COVID,
and you don't have to look at just people like physics girl,
although you should look at physics girl,
if you don't know who she is.
She has had her life fucking destroyed,
But there are plenty of people who,
it's just,
like, even if it doesn't go to that extreme,
it has very serious long-term sequela for a lot of people.
It's a systematic infection,
by which I mean, the infects.
It's not just like a respiratory infection,
it infects your circulatory system,
it infects neurons,
so it does brain damage,
that's why you can't smell,
why you lose some of the sense of smell and taste.
It does cardiovascular damage.
It does a lot of organ damage.
It's not good for you in a lot of ways.
It's also immune-modulating and immune-vasive,
which means that it causes a lot of secondary immunological issues,
which could be auto-emunity,
or it could be immune dysregulation,
because it's an nervous dysregulation.
A lot of stuff that you don't want.
that stuff ignore all that, right?
Most people who get these infections,
they're getting infected by it,
There are lots of people who get asymptomatic infections,
or brief infections,
but a lot of people get, like,
multi-week feel-like shit,
really terrible disease states
from getting infected from this stuff.
And I don't know about you.
I know I'm fucking weird here, I guess,
but it's weird to me that this is a weird thing.
But I don't want to fucking cold.
You know, I don't want to get sick for two or three days,
I definitely, especially,
especially given that I have asthma,
and if I get that,
I will very often get a horrible horse cough,
the last, like, a month or two,
and sounds like, you know,
I'm in a TV ward or something.
I definitely don't want to get flu,
which, you know,
records just the flu people like to say.
and this is an annoying thing,
because people,
everything has kind of flu-like symptoms,
because the symptoms that you get
and the signs,
the presentation of these diseases,
is largely due to me in response
to having a viral infection.
And so, like, when we took, when I took viralogy,
you know, the first time,
every, the first time being the first class,
every virus that we would cover,
the infected people,
would have flu-like symptoms,
influenza, flu-like symptoms, that's where,
you know,
Did you just go through the list,
most terrestrial viruses,
almost everything, flu-like symptoms.
And then people don't test,
and people are very poorly educated on this.
I'm not blaming them for this.
Obviously, you don't know what you don't know.
But people kind of call everything the flu,
and they think that the flu is not a big deal.
If you actually get the flu,
if you actually get it,
you will probably not be happy.
very sick for a couple of weeks.
14 days is the normal course.
It'll be gastrointestinal involvement.
So it's not just that you have muscular aches,
respiratory stuff,
diarrhea,
It's just that you will feel like shit.
It's much more than just a cold.
Things are more complicated than the acute phase presentation.
And just the cold could be any of
who knows how many different kinds of viruses.
It's not like people kind of think of rhino viruses
as the cold,
but there are so many,
so many different viruses
that have cold-like presentation.
there are many viruses that are very well adapted
that have completely asymptomatic,
or maybe they have some kind of a sign or something,
but you normally wouldn't notice it.
And most people are not tuned in and off the notice it.
And so you're not taking tests.
which is an annoying thing that we don't do that.
It should just be standard.
And there are countries where they have rapid tests
that they send to people that include things like RSV
And then you can get sick,
and then you take the test,
and then you kind of know what you have,
and then you know what to do.
Not that the treatment or the responses
necessarily that different for different things.
if you have influenza and you get it early enough,
you could take actually Tamiflu or something
and,
do you better if you get COVID,
you can take,
I brain is completely blanking.
Oh, this is embarrassing.
I'm not even going to be able to say,
And there are other things as well,
but you know,
that's something you could do.
And that kind of stuff is useful.
epidemiologically,
because the way that these things are transmitted
is kind of similar,
but it's not the same,
and how infectious they are is very different.
Flu is much less infectious than COVID.
COVID is very contagious.
this is not the point of what I want to talk about here.
kind of,
setting the stage a little bit.
as Antibax Junior and the Surgeon General of Florida
and Georgia and all of these things are happening,
I think it's worth talking about public health.
the,
I'm afraid,
end of the era of sort of vaccination,
at least,
I say,
and, you know,
I do think it will come back,
and,
although there are some dangers that,
if you go from a population that's largely vaccinated
to one that's not for a while,
you're basically allowing rapid expansion of a bunch of diseases
and things mutate,
and you have an area of a vaccinated population
that they're being challenged with,
you might be selecting for a vaccine occasion,
or,
yeah,
I don't know if you know that that's bad.
It might mean that you have to change the vaccines,
at least,
or it might mean that you can no longer vaccinate effectively,
or it's not as effective,
it's not like you can just stop for a while
and then face the consequences
and certainly you should try.
But there could be very serious long-term consequences
from stopping this stuff.
It's not a good situation.
you know,
still would be better than not doing it.
it's something where you really desperately want
to vaccinate as much of the population as possible
until you eradicate stuff,
and I don't want to talk about Wakefield
that there was a whole long list of people
you know,
they've undermined trust both in vaccinations,
they've spread disinformation,
and public health has been undermined by them.
They've made people not understand
they've done a lot of harm.
I don't know that I have much to had.
B, I probably couldn't do it justice.
that's not really what I want to talk about.
I want to talk about stuff that maybe
fewer people are talking about.
You can find that kind of,
that this other stuff on Wakefield and McCarthy
pretty easily on your own.
although don't find,
don't find ridiculous
quackery for that,
like,
minor,
I just want to say,
seizure,
like thinking about,
the whole,
like,
do your own research thing.
one thing that this is just an aside of an aside.
But one thing that I think is very important
to understand when you talk about
airports through your own research
is like,
when you go through the process of becoming a domain expert,
going to undergrad and then grad school,
getting a master's or a PhD in a subject,
one of the things you do,
so one of the things you do is just learning how to do research.
that's a very important thing.
And you're not just born knowing how to do research.
Another thing you do is learning how to put things into context,
like,
it's not like you just pull five articles and the articles tell you something.
That's not how science works.
You have to understand sort of what is the preponderance of the evidence,
and look at many different articles,
and put everything together and see
how do these pieces fit into the puzzle?
What is the context of this?
What does this mean?
What does this article mean?
Is this article in total disagreement
with everything that everybody else thinks?
And if so,
is the reasonable thing that it's real,
or is it dubious?
And all of that kind of stuff is stuff that you're not getting,
if you're just,
like,
equates to doing the research on your own.
You have to develop that.
And it's also something I think,
like,
I like teaching myself stuff.
I like learning stuff on my own.
But not having a teacher,
or at least sort of a mentor or a guide,
helping you out,
helping you understand how to do this stuff.
You're going to misunderstand stuff.
You're going to misinterpret stuff.
And it goes to this thing that I get all the time,
especially,
you know,
I was going to say Twitter,
I've been with on Twitter in a long time,
but on blue sky,
or Facebook,
or just talking to people.
show me the,
the one article that tells me this.
that is fundamentally misunderstanding
All the things I'm going to be,
These are things that have,
like,
when I speak about stuff,
especially here,
I'm speaking about stuff that I know,
And I've spent a lot of time
and effort understanding it
and building this context for it.
But it's not like I can just point you to a single source,
It is something where you have to do a lot of work
to understand all these pieces and put them all together.
I feel like it conspiracy theory,
It is just like basically how research works,
and how,
you know,
it's part of scientific epistemology,
which is,
you know,
successive approximations of reality,
based on continually sort of testing things,
and getting refinements,
and seeing little bits of evidence,
and putting them all together.
It's not like one thing tells you anything.
if there was a case where you're like,
oh,
this one article says this,
you're fully fucking in it,
because you can find,
they might not be the dominant thing.
you know,
they might be rare,
but you can find articles talking about all kinds of nonsense,
and even in good journals.
And there's plenty of examples of that,
which is not to say that every article
in a good journal is bad.
It's just you have to look at the,
again,
I keep using the word,
but preponderance of evidence,
and the context,
and put everything together like that.
it's not like,
I can just say,
you know,
this is,
here's your,
you know,
just look at this summary,
or even a review article.
like this is a review article,
and look at that,
I can tell you that I've done a lot of work.
I've looked at a lot of stuff,
but I can't really just,
you know,
without having you do the work,
you can't really convey that.
It's one of these problems with expertise,
and I think,
people don't understand how expertise works.
it's a fundamental problem.
And there's definitely this issue
that people have where people think,
or people used to think,
this sort of,
I don't know,
but you call it,
you know,
at one point it was like a priesthood,
but in science,
you know,
it's like,
oh,
I have these credentials,
and I'm an expert in this,
and so you should trust me,
because you should trust me.
And I want to be very careful and clear
that I'm not asking you to do that.
I normally don't like talking about my background,
specifically because of what I just said,
but I do want you to understand
that being an expert actually means something,
and it means that,
you know,
I have spent many years of my life
studying a subject,
and I,
you know, have looked,
not just like a couple things,
but a lot of stuff
from a lot of different people
over a long period of time,
and I've gotten pieces,
you know,
and some of those stuff I'm going to talk about today,
I have studied in,
and it just,
just like one of the things,
actually,
I don't want to stop on it too much,
but I'm going to talk about the,
the way that genes are encoded in DNA,
and then translate it,
transcribed rather to RNA,
and then expressed as proteins.
I have studied that in high school,
several times in different classes,
then in undergrad in genetics,
in microbiology,
in immunology,
and in biology,
and you could just go down the list.
I studied it many, many times,
and every time you get more layers,
and you start learning more nuances about it,
and you start getting a better,
and better understanding of it.
I'm going to cover in very broad strokes
at a very high level,
you might feel like you know,
something about it,
or you might find something
that's kind of,
well,
Scott said this,
but the actual thing is this.
I'm giving you the sort of sketch,
there are nuances,
there are things like,
not everything in your genome,
not everything in your DNA,
is coding for proteins,
There are a lot of nuances there,
and then there are edits after transcription
and translation,
and there are,
all of these,
all of these things that happen,
modifications,
and there's a lot of detail there.
you could spend many years studying that,
and you would just kind of get
closer and closer to understanding it.
who you are,
no matter how much time you spend on a subject,
you don't know that much about it.
one of the measures of expertise,
and actually going through an earning expertise,
is you kind of understand
how much you don't understand,
much more than people who are just like,
and it's like,
oh, that's really simple.
And then you start studying,
and you get more and more nuance,
and more in detail,
and you're like,
wow, this is actually really fucking complicated.
it just unfolds very quickly.
like there are plenty of experts,
and I get really fucking annoyed with these people.
But these are people like,
for some reason,
Neil deGrest Tyson is really in my head,
What the fuck is that guy's name?
He's like the archetype of this kind of person.
is a good example of this.
These are people who are definitely Paul Davies,
These are people who are definitely experts in a domain.
you know,
they have credentials,
they have done some work,
and they know a lot about some particular subject,
or at least they at one point in time.
When you have a PhD with a thing,
the way to look at that in some senses,
you are the world expert on some tiny,
little,
minutious thing,
just at the moment that you do your dissertation.
other people,
as soon as you publish,
other people will start going beyond what you know,
but at that moment when you're defending,
in principle at least,
you're the world expert on that handy little thing.
And all of the people that I mentioned have PhDs,
and they've all been world experts on something.
Kakao is a very good particle,
field theory for physicists,
but then he talks about weird stuff that's completely unrelated to that.
NDT is a really bad one,
like he just goes out,
and all these people also have this,
it's not just the professorial tone,
but they have a cadence and a way of speaking,
that really conveys the impression of deep understanding,
and authority,
and then they can speak on these other subjects,
which they know very little,
to nothing about,
and they sound like they know what the fuck they're talking about.
And this is a massive problem.
Like even if you get outside of,
like,
just to use Dawkins, for example,
he was a world expert at one point in time
on certain aspects of evolutionary biology.
There are plenty of evolutionary biology,
This is relevant actually,
because my last job,
I was a researcher in evolutionary biology.
So I know a little bit about this subject,
a research scientist,
and I worked with my advisor,
had some disagreements with him,
but he's considered widely in the field
to be one of the leading experts in the domain.
who know something about something,
don't know everything,
even about that subject,
and certainly don't know anything,
necessarily,
about subjects that are not close to their domain of expertise.
and this is where I give you my brief CV,
a half hour end,
So I have an undergrad degree in microbiology.
I have another one in mathematics that I have concurrently.
Almost got one in anthropology.
But I took a lot of classes.
I did that in four years,
ended up with 170 to 174 credit hours,
I was like five or six classes every semester.
Took some summer semesters.
And I mentioned it before,
but in my microbiology,
It was like a 400 slash 500 level course.
It was my first virology course.
I think I took advanced immunology.
I can't remember if I did that after undergrad,
or if it was before,
But either we have taken advanced immunology as well.
And I've taken a couple other immunology courses.
I have taken epidemiology at like the 400 level.
So I'm getting into my master's degree in microbiology,
which incidentally just throwing this out here.
But I stopped before doing the research.
So I did not have a PhD in the subject.
But I took all the coursework.
I've got the background that I would have had
if I had a PhD in the subject.
and this is not an insignificant difference.
Many women says they're PhD ABD.
All the dissertation are all but done.
if they actually have done the master's work,
they've taken the coursework,
and they have the background that a PhD would have.
Doesn't mean that they're an expert or that they've actually worked on
specific research in a specific subdomain of that subject.
And they've that published or gone through the defense process
and all of that kind of stuff.
But they still have some decent amount of background in it.
Anyway, that's just an aside.
I get annoyed when people say that I haven't seen that as much anymore,
Maybe it was because I was a grad student at one point in time.
And then I was never a postdoc,
but after I got a PhD,
I'd see a lot of people saying that and it just created on me.
It was getting a PhD as a giant fucking pain in the ass.
But anyway, all of that being said,
did the masters, and I took the coursework that I would have had,
And my specialties, there were virology,
a couple virology courses as a graduate student,
and then in the analogy,
took a couple of those,
and then I took undergrad, well,
undergrad, upper division level,
so like four hundredish level,
infectious disease, microbiology,
epidemiology, took them at the grad level as well.
Which incidentally, and I'm going to talk a little bit about epidemiology here,
but I want to say one of the big takeaways that I've had
from studying a bit of epidemiology,
is that it is a very fraught subject,
and it's extraordinarily easy
to misunderstand things,
or over-generalize something,
or to be very slippery on,
especially when you deal with statistics and how to understand stuff,
or, you know,
and then you start getting into causation,
versus correlation,
and it's just, it's fraught.
It taught me not to get too deep into that subject,
when I'm talking about stuff,
because you're, you're gonna,
the stuff that I'm going to talk about today,
is like confidence stuff,
but there's a lot of stuff that you can get into with epidemiology,
that is just totally, like you're going to step in it.
And it's one of the most annoying things,
when you've got that bit of understanding,
and then you start seeing people who are not domain experts in it,
and you've never taken up an epidemiology course,
and it just like read some bullshit Wikipedia article or something,
and they feel like and present themselves,
as though they know anything about epidemiology,
it's really fucking annoying,
and they're very, they're very certainly wrong.
I've done that, I taught infectious,
like 400 level infectious disease microbiology,
but I was one of the instructors.
I've taught a bunch of introductory microbiology courses,
and then my PhD is in physics,
and in physics,
I've done a lot of math modeling,
which includes things like transmission,
basically the stuff that you would do,
in statistical mechanics,
but part of the stuff that we did there
would be the kinds of stuff that you would do
for epidemiological modeling.
like calculus and differential equations,
which also gets into things like
such as the infected air infectious
and removed population models,
and more complicated models than that
for epidemiological modeling.
So I have a little bit of background.
I'm not claiming to be the biggest expert in the world
on these subjects,
but I can speak with some authority on this,
and when I say that,
I also don't mean,
like, oh, just trust me, bro.
what I'm saying here is actually correct.
Nothing is perfectly correct.
Nothing is completely true,
but to a pretty high degree of confidence,
I'm not gonna say stuff that is dubious or sketchy.
So just laying that stuff out there.
what I want to start with is,
and I put,
I normally don't put a lot in the,
the episode images,
but here I'm putting something that is an image
that was from Ian McKay,
who has a site called the virology down under,
and this was made by Rose Wong,
and it's not the only,
There are many different figures like this,
but I really like this one,
and I could have made my own,
I could have done this,
but I'm hoping that that attribution
is sufficient here,
and I'm picking this one,
A because it was very popular at one point in time,
although,
it's pressingly,
people seem to have completely forgotten about it,
and partially,
not due to their own fault.
It's partially due to a large,
sort of,
large scale effort that's been by partisan
to really,
really mislead people on this subject.
and this is kind of tailored toward,
infectious disease for an airborne respiratory virus.
It's not specifically exactly COVID,
although it's obviously was made for COVID,
but it's also relevant for other diseases.
it's good to talk,
and like,
I'm going to talk about it in sort of broader strokes,
and then occasionally,
like, come back and forth between other diseases,
and COVID,
just to preface this,
with like,
the SARS-CoV-2 versus COVID,
it's a little bit of laziness,
and it's also just being out of practice.
anyway,
the thing that this shows that I really like
is it has personal responsibilities on one half,
and then it has shared responsibilities.
I do want to say,
I'm not like 100% aligned with everything that's here exactly,
but I like it on a general,
you know, broad strokes level.
And I think an important thing to understand,
especially with public health.
it's one of the most frustrating things for me.
Public health is public health.
It is not like individual,
you do these things to protect yourself.
we do these things together to protect all of us.
the perfect example of this,
incidentally,
I was going to talk about this later,
but this is,
this is useful here,
and I'll get to have vaccines working all that stuff later,
but the herd immunity is a big part of how vaccines work.
and why we say,
you don't vaccinate individuals,
you vaccinate populations.
Vaccines are not magical,
personal shields that protect you from getting sick,
but what they do,
what they are,
and the reason that we use them,
the real reason that we use them,
and the real reason that Florida
turning off the mandates for vaccines is horrible,
is that they protect us as a society collectively.
You do get protected by being vaccinated,
don't get me wrong,
but not everybody,
not every vaccine and every person
elicits protective immunity.
you know,
it's a statistical thing,
it might work for you,
it might not,
probably is,
but really effective vaccines
might only be effective,
80%,
Sometimes you can have a vaccine,
it's only effective,
And if you vaccinate enough people,
and it's not contagious enough,
and you do other measures,
that can be enough to basically knock a disease
into oblivion,
So herd immunity is this idea
that even if you are not effectively protected
from something by a vaccination yourself,
people around you are vaccinated,
and so they're no longer able
to give you something,
because they're not,
yeah,
they're not going to be carriers
that are transmitting stuff.
there are there are details here,
and again,
I can hear people saying,
extra details,
and you know,
please go with me
that the broad strokes here are correct.
There are nuances and details,
you have a vaccine that protects you,
not by protecting you directly,
but by keeping people around you
from getting you infected,
which means that people who have
actual reasons not to be
able to be effectively vaccinated,
like immune deficiencies,
or serious autoimmune disorders,
they get protected by
enough of the population being vaccinated.
even if somehow you happen to get sick,
because everybody is around you as vaccinated,
and especially if they have
vaccine or like vaccine raised immunity,
that protects them,
they don't get sick,
and then they don't transmit it to other people.
So you can't propagate through the population.
like the details of how many people,
like what fraction of the population
has to be vaccinated in order for this to work,
it varies,
depending on like how infectious things are.
Some things are extremely,
COVID is a good one,
is extremely, extremely of infectious.
one person who gets infected
is infecting a lot of people,
and you don't have to have a very long exposure
There are other things like flu,
that it's pretty infectious.
you're going to give it to a couple
three people or so,
on average,
but it's not like,
You need longer exposure time,
and you know,
it's,
and then there are things like,
a good one is leprosy,
or tuberculosis,
that they're pretty infectious as well,
And it takes a lot of long term kind of close contact
And all of these things are statistical too.
So you could be in a room with somebody
who's shedding COVID,
or shedding COVID variants,
just for a long time,
and I could sick,
and you could,
you know,
or you could be just passing by somebody,
who has tuberculosis,
and you get really unlucky,
and then you get tuberculosis.
the average sort of expected things
are sort of what I'm talking about here.
like that herd immunity is why we vaccinate.
in some sense,
why things like improving indoor air quality
You're not doing that to protect individuals,
necessarily,
although it does protect individuals,
but improving ventilation,
improving filtration,
making sure that you're not just
recirculating and ensuring infectious particles.
That keeps disease from propagating,
and by preventing it from propagating,
you are able to stop it,
or at least slow it down significantly.
and this is one of these things,
if you do enough of these things,
so that one infectious person,
doesn't infect more people than
the replacement on average,
then things will fizzle out.
you have exponential decay,
and it'll just go to zero.
things,
especially if they're nonhuman reservoirs,
it's very difficult to completely
completely eradicate something,
but you can take it down
to essentially an negligible level.
And if you don't do stuff like that,
and each person who's infectious
is infecting on average more people,
then you get exponential growth,
and you don't need to have too many credit cards
to know exponential growth is really bad.
you know,
one person gets two people infected,
and then they get four,
then eight,
and then,
you know,
it's the whole kid with,
well,
first they give me one grain of rice,
and then two grains of rice,
and then by the end of the month,
you have to,
you know, do something horrible,
because that's like all the rice in the kingdom.
That's exponential growth.
And if you adjust the multiplier there,
you adjust whether or not
it's going to be able to propagate in the population.
And there are things that you can do as individual,
and this is one area where I'm not a huge fan of this,
of this figure,
but I do kind of like it's still,
there are,
you know,
in the personal responsibility section,
there are things like masks,
hand hygiene,
cough etiquette,
avoid touching your face.
Some of these are more relevant to like flu,
and other diseases,
but they're all a good sort of universal precautions
that everybody should be taking.
Physical distance and staying home of your sick,
but all of these things,
even if they're personal responsibilities,
there are things that we all do for each other.
And if everybody does them,
if, you know,
people don't go home,
or go to work or to school when they're sick,
then you don't have as many people getting infected,
and then we're all better.
like,
it might not directly help you on this one instance,
but by all of us doing it,
or most of us,
the vast majority hopefully of us doing it,
it's better for all of us.
It's such a simple example of collective responsibilities,
and why that kind of stuff is so important.
I hope that that,
I'm not rambling too much and boring you,
but I hope that kind of conveys a little bit about that.
one thing in addition to herd immunity,
that,
that I want to kind of cover is like,
what we should have done,
or what we still could do even,
to address the ongoing pandemic.
And one of the first things that you would do is surveillance.
And surveillance would be,
you know,
you test people regularly.
I used to not like waste water testing,
but I think it's actually a really good way to,
The problem that I have with it is just that you don't necessarily,
it's good at detecting relative amounts of something.
It's good at detecting the presence or the absence of something.
But even if you're doing quantitative PCR,
it's difficult to understand directly,
or to directly correlate,
like how many people are infected,
versus how much virus you're seeing,
for example, and wastewater.
but if you have one variant that sheds much more than another variant,
they're not really that comparable.
you know,
on average the same thing,
and the same amount shed by each person,
you can kind of work backwards from it.
But even with that though,
I do think it's actually a really useful,
especially if you're doing like,
a large scale survey lens,
it's easy to set up,
It's raining, it's beautiful.
It doesn't really take that much effort.
Like you don't have to get everybody individually
out to a testing facility,
and then do all that kind of stuff.
And you can get pretty good detection,
and rough,
broad strokes kind of how prevalent something is.
So that's part of surveillance.
Testing individuals is also a part of surveillance.
this is the one I like more,
because A,
it tells you more immediately.
B, it tells you exactly who has what.
And the nice thing about this is,
if you detect that somebody has something,
you can do things like quarantine.
it's a very least,
the very least,
we're a fucking mask,
and then that infect the bunch of people.
you know,
just say home,
while you're sick,
that would be a nice thing to do.
and this is one that just drives me wild,
because it's built into all of our phones,
It should just be on by default,
and it should be there,
globally,
It's only for people in certain apps,
for certain things,
and it doesn't really interoperate,
and it's just like,
it's just irritating,
that you have this technology,
and you don't use it,
and you don't have it applied well,
with our phones,
would let us know,
okay,
you were exposed to somebody
who is sick,
or who,
you know,
maybe they're not sick,
maybe they're asymptomatic,
but they were,
because you were exposed to them yesterday,
you could isolate for a day or two,
or however long it takes to incubate,
test,
and see,
if you're sick,
and then,
and I'm using sick,
kind of sloppily,
like sick means infected,
Doesn't necessarily mean that you're actually sick,
but,
you know,
if you are infected and infectious,
then you're not,
you're stopping the spread.
You're not going to be part of that chain of transmission.
this is really essentially what all of the stuff is,
because that chain of transmission,
this is,
this is also the main reason that I wear a mask.
like,
I don't want to get sick.
I don't want to get,
either acute symptoms,
and I don't want to get certainly long COVID.
I don't want to get a cold,
or any of that kind of stuff.
I don't want,
if I do get infected by something,
I don't want to be one of the people
that gives it to somebody.
Who either dies themselves,
or gives it to somebody else who dies.
And when you think about it,
like COVID is not like the most,
it's not like Ebola or something.
or the case mortality rate,
is low single digit percentages.
But when you think about,
like how many people,
like because it's so infectious,
every time you get sick,
you're infecting,
well,
like 15,
on average,
And so you go a couple of hops out.
And now if the case mortality rate
is like one or two percent,
So you infect some people
You're killing at least a,
not just one person,
but you're killing a few people,
who would have survived
if you stopped the chain of transmission.
you know,
that is continuing the path of exponential growth,
that's one of the,
is one of the things that just really gets to me,
like it's such,
again,
a basic communal responsibility thing.
I really wish,
that wasn't that complicated to explain to people.
more than that,
I wish,
this isn't a thing that just annoys me,
but this is something
that should have been explained to people,
so early on,
And it's something that people just don't fucking know.
They don't think about it.
They don't think about the train of transmission,
or their responsibility to other people.
I think people might have a better understanding
They don't understand that you vaccinate populations,
And this is one of the things also that I get really
incensed,
and I know I have,
again,
I'm a broken record on this,
the Biden administration.
I want to talk about this very carefully,
because I don't want you to think,
like obviously Trump is fucking horrible,
anti-vaccine,
as fucking horrible,
these Republicans,
doing a considerable amount of damage to public health.
and the Democrats,
have done,
I don't,
again,
in an argument that I over who did more,
I'm not going to say that any one group
But what I will say is that some of the stuff that Biden has done,
and this is even a more abstract kind of thing than this,
but when you have one group of people pushing to do something bad,
like the Trump RFK Junior group,
and then you have another group of people
who are eliminating any kind of resistance
to those people doing something bad.
proximally,
the people doing the bad thing.
but when you're completely undercutting any kind of resistance at all,
you kind of have some responsibility there.
And it really is a team effort between these two groups,
and in doing this together,
they're causing an enormous amount of harm.
And so this is going to continue on to this figure that I have,
I don't know if you'll be able to see it very well,
but you'll be able to see at least the stuff that matters from a high level.
And if you have some good visual impairment,
I'm going to describe it.
So, yeah, don't worry about that.
But yeah, the Swiss cheese thing on top,
hopefully you get that,
layers of defense, defense and depth,
individual layers of imperfect protection,
layered on top of each other,
kind of cover up the holes from each other,
and then it gives you much better protection overall.
That's, that I think that's pretty easy to understand, I hope so.
this is,
the public health is not just the policies,
and it's not just getting people vaccinated,
and it's not just improving air quality,
and getting people to wash their hands,
and getting people to wear respirators,
especially in healthcare,
it's also educating people.
And teaching people about Swiss cheese is educating people.
But one of the things Biden did,
I'll get to these other figures in a second,
but one of the things Biden did that I fucking despise,
and I will never forgive him for,
is basically convinced people to air quotes,
and very badly,
misrepresented how vaccines work,
and what they're for,
and what they do,
he basically told people,
they get vaccinated,
and now you can take off the mask.
You can just go about your life,
you can just be,
and that's not how they fucking work.
That's not how vaccines work.
individual, personal shields.
They do not give you perfect protection.
They don't necessarily prevent you from
transmitting things,
although by decreasing the amount of virus that you're shedding,
This is one of the things that I was talking about before
when I was a kid here,
listening and then kind of criticizing.
you'll get people who say,
oh, it doesn't,
the COVID vaccines don't pretend,
but don't prevent transmission.
yeah,
but because they give you a shorter course,
because you have some immunity,
and you're going to be shedding less,
They do decrease the basic replication number,
which is what really matters.
And if you do that with other interventions,
It's not just protecting you.
But they don't magically stop you from getting infected.
And they don't magically stop you from infecting other people.
This is one layer of Swiss cheese.
you know,
you have Biden,
his wife,
Dr. Jill,
I wouldn't mind that she calls herself,
Dr. Jill,
if she didn't start talking about medical stuff,
but it's when you,
if I go to a hospital,
and I call myself Dr. Scott,
I think it's actually really deceptive.
even in this thing,
if I'm calling myself Dr. Scott,
but I have a PhD in physics.
Yeah, it's a little misleading.
It's just a little misleading.
If he is a doctorate in education,
not pertinent to,
and then will be Goldberg,
you know,
this is one of those things,
also like your Scott,
what he knows that she has a doctorate.
What big Goldberg was saying,
she should be the surgeon general.
that's, and as I'm picking on one example,
but that's the kind of thing that happens
when people call themselves Dr.
And I don't want to take away from,
especially like,
I understand there's a lot of misogyny
and, you know,
I don't want to take away from
a woman calling herself Dr.
and all this kind of stuff.
But when you start getting into
domain stuff that you don't understand
and you're not an expert in,
like saying,
doesn't it?
Doesn't the air just smell
sweeter without a mask?
Which she did say,
because she was telling people
that they could vaccinate
When you start doing that kind of stuff
and you're calling yourself a doctor,
It has real consequences.
And it's one of these things
where I get annoyed,
especially with the misunderstanding
of the role of experts in expertise.
So, just you're taking me.
But because she and her husband
and a bunch of other people,
it's been like so many people
publishing shit
and again,
like New York Times and Washington Post.
a lot of these,
like horrible,
pro-infectious disease doctors
are now part of the current administration.
a lot of them were from like UCSF
medical school
and for some reason,
Stanford
and that general Silicon Valley area
and the greater area around it
had a lot of fucking horrible people
and a lot of them were doing a lot of harm
Dr. Wen,
and all the,
I think she's from someplace over there.
And then they were getting people
to, you know,
stop taking the pandemic seriously
and take off the masks
and all those kind of stuff.
like,
I don't enjoy that I'm doing it.
I will say,
one of the things I like about being in Asia
is I'm not fucking alone.
Like there are other people doing it.
it's definitely not as many as it was a few years ago.
It's depressing, disappointing.
you know,
like just the only person
in the fucking,
or one of like two or three people
and the entire store doing it.
it's,
but Biden pushed for this idea
that you vaccinate
and now you don't have,
like it was an either or thing.
You get vaccinated or you mask.
And the problem is it's a both thing.
Each one is an imperfect layer
of protection
and between doing these things.
And not only doing those things
but also like one of the things
we absolutely should have done
that we didn't do
is give a shit ton of money.
the economy too,
I don't want to get into that subject.
it's one of the very simple things
we could have done
that would have been a great
investment in the future
is like changing building codes
and requiring better
ventilation,
better filtration,
making standards
for like indoor
or quality that included
like CO2 concentration limits
it would have been very useful.
Making things especially in
like schools and hospitals
and buildings where
a lot of people are
that require
you know certain high
or fairly high standards
what a been easy
and it would have paid dividends
and it also like
if we got like in medical settings
doctors and nurses
no matter what
just as a matter
of universal precautions
like you and I
should be able to take off
the masks if
we're not,
but we know we're not infected
and prevalence
of things that are circulating
That's where the surveillance comes in.
But if you're in a medical setting
and you're
you're a clinician,
you're a nurse,
you're anyone in this kind of domain,
you should just be wearing them.
Just like you should just be wearing
or washing your hands all the time
because you don't know
what the fuck you're exposed to.
go to a hospital
and who knows
if they have
you know
the flu
or if they have RSV
or if they have some emerging
airborne infectious disease
and because people
have just completely taken off masks
and especially in medical settings
where they're dealing with
people who are immune compromised
or like on
infusions for cancer
or for other things
and their immune suppressed
and people are not
fucking masks anymore
and all that kind of stuff
not just because of COVID
but because of other infectious diseases
including emerging ones
that we might not know about yet
you're facilitating
the transmission of these things
and you're making everybody
much, much less safe
including yourself
and it's like a communal thing
the vaccine relax idea
just irritates me
and it
also caused so much harm
because
inevitably
what would happen
you know vaccines
are not perfect
vaccines are not 100
percent effective
they do not convey
magical protection
against anything
and so
even though vaccines are very good
and they work very well
people would see
oh Bob got vaccinated
and still got sick
there go
this is the logic that they're going to use
because they're not
they're not had somebody
explained to them
which is again
absolutely essential public health thing
because they don't know that vaccines
help
and they decrease the severity of infections
and the durations
of infections
and the probability of infections
but they don't
eliminate them
so now people are seeing
all the vaccines
didn't work here
and then they conclude
okay vaccines are pointless
and then they conclude
why am I doing this
because if you don't understand
that they actually help a lot
then all you see
are the risks
which people again
like Wakefield
and McCarthy
and all these other
assholes
have vastly vastly
overblown
and
I don't know if you heard
that there was a
there was thunder
got me excited
but
because
all of these people
were vastly overblown
the risks
and now you see no reward
and you see risk
it's bad
if you wouldn't
if you would have
instead said
and again
you can explain this
to a fucking six year old
vaccines
are a layer
of imperfect
protection
and
they help
they decrease
the probability of infection
they decrease
the likelihood
that you're going to get a severe infection
they decrease
probably the length of infection
and so on
and you explain that kind of thing
but they're not perfect
and they're not magical shields
but you
just like you wear your mask
for other people
you get vaccinated
to help other people
and if enough people are vaccinated
then it actually helps everybody
including you
that's the whole fucking point of vaccines
and
in addition to the herd of
immunity which I already explained
it's fucking annoying
that we had that opportunity
we had the opportunity
to improve
ventilation and filtration
and it basically make people
much less likely to transmit
not just SARS-CoV-2
but influenza
or RSV
or every other airborne
infectious disease
we could be much more
protective against them
we could have built a society
we still can't
find you
but we should have done this
five years ago
built a society
where people
get sick
and then they go
I'm not going to fucking work
I'm not going to stay home
because I don't want to get other people sick
I don't remember when it was
it's probably been like
if I'd have been like
2018 or something by now
but
years ago there was a Bureau
of Labor Statistics
study
for the US
that said that
mandatory paid sick time
off would save
billions of dollars
with a B
a year
just in the US alone
because
turns out when you're sick
and you go to work
you're getting other people sick
if you work in service
service industry or
someplace where you're interacting with a lot of people
you're not just getting your co-workers sick
you're getting other people in the community sick
who are going to get
time off or they're going to
get other people sick
who
take time off
and use medical resources
and
maybe even get really severely ill
and die
is a possibility
or some other kind of long-term injury
it's fucking annoying
so
it's also weird
like there are countries
in the world
where it's just a given
you don't even have really sick time per se
it's just your sick
you stay home
I don't want you coming to work
and then in the US you have this thing where it's like
you're going to go to work no matter what
and you're going to get me sick
you're going to get everybody else sick
and then we're going to go to work no matter what
just power through it
which incidentally also means that the probability
not only of getting other people sick
and getting yourself sick
but the probability of having bad outcomes
increases
when you overdo it
as a general rule
it's just not
and the length of your sick
area of your sick
the length of your sick
that's good English
the duration of your illness
probably goes up
when you have more stress
and you're pushing it
and all of this kind of stuff
you're not able to recover
and convalesce
as quickly
it's just just worse for everybody
all around
and again
it's more expensive
for everybody including the employers
it's one of these many cases
where
it's not just
the direct
selfish
self-interested thing
for companies and businesses
is actually the thing that's nicer
is the thing that's like
let people take sick time off
similarly letting people take vacation
and have a nice decent amount of vacation
increases productivity
significantly
and yet
employers don't want to do it
and forcing people to go physically into an office
that you have to pay for
it decreases productivity
having to go through traffic
I'm here
and then
and it's not quite
rush hour now
but you can see it's thickening up
but during rush hour
especially
I was
walking a couple days ago
in the morning
because I had a zoom call
that I had to do
and I was trying to get coffee before it
was walking in the height of rush hour
and
it was just like
bumper to bumper stopped traffic
I'm just looking at that
as like
all these people
are going to some place
most of them don't
need to be physically
wherever the fuck they're going
and they're spending so much time
in the cars being traffic
you know
going painfully slow
I'm watching a street
like in front of me right now
and people are going
so slow I could walk faster
than they are in their cars
wouldn't want to necessarily know
because it's raining
although I'm going to go out soon
because I like that
but you know
it's just like wild
to me
that we do this
and then you waste all that energy
being in your car
that you're not getting paid for
by the way
going to work
coming from work
and now you're at work
and you're going to be less productive
and in a worse mood
because you just
help with all that bullshit
that you didn't need to deal with
and then also
the people that do need to physically be someplace
have to deal with your ass
going to and from work
adding to traffic
but they could be
you know
it could be easier for everybody
it could be better for everybody
but anyway
so if I know like getting back
to this figure
this is something that I really want to talk about
and I just
I
it's one of these things that I know
sounds like
ridiculous
wacky conspiracy theory kind of stuff
this is completely real
this is something that I'm not making up
it's not something that I've just constructed
I'm not like
I'm not the guy who's got the map
with all the string
gets attached to each other
and is like pulling out his hair
and pointing it stuff
this is a real fucking thing
so you look at these two maps
down on the bottom of this figure
and again I'm going to describe them
I started talking about this
I think like 15 minutes
it's going to finally getting to it now
sorry
there's a reason
that the thing is called
the digits right
so you look at this
and the left one
is the CDC's
these are both from the CDC
these are maps
the CDC was
putting out
they've stopped of course
but they were putting out to sort of tell people
just status of the
the pandemic
right
more or less
and the first one
is Community Transmission
and the US by a county
and it had a scale
it seems pretty natural for me
red was high
and in this case
at this particular point in time
it was 68.53%
red
and it had increased by 7%
I think the previous week
and that was
20 or 2000
to 108 counties
look at the map
it's a sea of red
right
and in substantial
481 counties
with about 15%
14.93%
which had gone slightly down
from the previous cycle
moderate is yellow
11%
and then low is blue
and it's all red
a little orange
tiny bit of yellow in the middle
and then there are like
a lot of blue
just a little dots of blue
and you look at that
and it accurately
conveys
is that exactly
telling you prevalence
but it's a very close proxy
for prevalence
so prevalence would be
if you go outside
how many people are sick
how many people are shedding
how many people are infectious
and that's important
because
it's like the weather
if a lot of people are sick
and shedding
and infectious
then maybe you bring
maybe it's like it's raining
out and you bring a raincoat
or rain
umbrella
I could not think of the word
umbrella
said you bring your umbrella
because
it's raining
right
and then if it's not
prevalent
if things are not circulating
then maybe you don't need one
that's why this is useful
it's also useful
because it tells you
if you are paying attention
to that real-time prevalence data
you can act accordingly
and not necessarily where you're
respirator every day
but it also helps with public health
because you can look at that
and you can say
well, there's a lot of prevalence
right now in the community
and that means that
because
people get infected
and then they have like a week
or two before they really
start
getting seriously sick
you can prepare for that
you know that it's coming
you can see the wave
before it crests
that's why prevalence
is useful
and why
community transmissions
like the amount
that it's circulating
in the community
was useful
that is a real
meaningful metric
and it's a map
that you look at it
and it looks pretty bad
and I
until they stopped
publishing this map
I watched this map
and it pretty much never
didn't look bad
some weeks
it would get like
gone
not as bad
like it would be
a little bit more yellow
or there might be bigger patches of blue
but it's been pretty bad
as long as they get
putting it out
or it was pretty bad
and I don't think Biden liked that
this was also like Trump didn't like it
and one of the things Trump said
was
if we just stopped testing
then it'll magically go away
now of course it doesn't
magically go away
it's just you don't know
just like it's just invisible
but you don't know
you don't know what you don't know
but Trump didn't stop testing
but Biden stopped testing
Biden basically eliminated
PCR testing
so at one point in time
we had free PCR testing
and PCR testing is much better
than rapid antigen testing
I don't want to get too much into the details
but basically the antigen testing
you have
antibodies that are specific
to whatever the antigen is
and the infectious disease
and then those detect the hat
and there's some kind of an indicator
and then you get the little bar
that tells you
oh you're positive
that's kind of antigen testing
PCR you have primers
so you have these little sequences
and then it basically gets in
to whatever the infectious
or whatever the sample was
and then it replicates
and so you're amplifying it
and in that amplification
then you look for those things
and that means that you're much
much more sensitive
and much more specific for that matter
you're able to detect
much lower levels of something
and much more reliably
and it's just a much better system
it's not as fast
it's not like you could just put it on a card
because you have to have the thermocycle
or thermocycle
which is basically something
that lets the stuff
anneal, it's a hat
and it's a replicate
and then you heat it up
to split it
and then it replicates again
and then you heat it up
replicate
and you just keep going through these cycles
you need a device
that precisely controls the temperature
but that's something you can build
pretty easily
and pretty cheaply
and then you need the reagents
which are again more expensive
than the stuff that you need
for the rapid antigen tests
but not that much more
like you could do it for literally
pennies, per test
especially if you scale it up
and especially if it wasn't done for profit
it could be pennies a test
you can also have different primers
and different in one test
test for multiple things
and it would be basically
like a system that's looking for different indicators
and then tell you what
what infectious diseases
or what agents rather are present
and what amounts
you can do quantitative PCR as well
that's another thing
but it's a thing you can do
and so you can make a test like this
and in this one test
very sensitively and very specifically detect
RSB
or flu
or COVID
or something new comes out
and it's this new emerging thing
you can't turn it on overnight
but once you've got a sequence for it
which we can now do very, very easily
you can start adding that into your test
within weeks to a month
like almost no time at all
it's one of the things that's amazing
about molecular technology
we have that ability now
and so you can set that to PCR
the antigen tests
you have to raise antibodies for
they're not perfect in a lot of ways
a lot of false negatives
you get a bunch of people that will take one test
they get a negative and they're like oh well
and you can get a false negative
just because there's not good reactivity
or because you need a lot
of the antigen in the sample
in order to see
a strong positive
and it's a much worse way of doing it
we could have
and we should have
everybody at home having a thermocycler
having like a spectrophotometer
just like a little machine that you have at home
and you have little kit
those kits have all the reagents
and then have all the indicators all that stuff
do your test
toss the kit into a little
slot or something in the thing
and then
you know within
an hour or whatever
and not only do you know
with the updated set
of different agents
that you're looking for
what's there
so you know if you have flu
or influenza
you know if you have flu
or RSV
or some rhino virus
or COVID
you could just tell that
and you can also kind of tell
like very sensitively
when you don't like when you're not shedding it
anymore this is one of the
I think more important things
so part of it is knowing when you have it
part of it is sharing that information with people
by wishing you like the CDC
or some kind of an agency like that
putting it into these prevalence
like community transmission
maps
and then letting people use that as actionable
information and then also you want to know
when you're no longer shedding
because as soon as you're
if you resolve symptoms
you might still be shedding for another week
or two
which means you feel good
you go out into the community
you start doing stuff
and if you're not wearing a mask
you're getting people sick
you don't even know it
versus you do these tests
and the tests again are very cheap
and you can just do them and you get them for free
and then in that process
you know when you're no longer shedding
and you know when it's safe to go out
and then
you know just magic
it's frustrating because it's so simple
it's not like a complicated thing
that
I'm not saying like if we had flying cars
then we could I'm not like postulating something
that is if we had
ten layers of technology that we don't know
this is stuff that you could very easily do
the day or even five or ten years ago
and the fact that we haven't
got it is just irritating
it's just fucking irritating
and so you go back to these charts
and this is
I'm pretty sure these are the same week
they might be separated by a week or two
but I think these are the same week
and this other one
the lower right hand corner
is community levels in the US
and community levels
is a completely made up metric
that
it's just like it does not
it's not a standard thing
for epidemiology or infectious disease
it sounds like
the level of
you know in fact this is really
kind of dystopian like the name
sounds like you're saying what
what is the level of
disease in the population
like what is the prevalence
it sounds like prevalence
doesn't it?
but what it actually means
is not prevalence but it means
well how
crowded are the hospitals
and is that just that
lagging indicator?
again because
you don't get sick and go to the hospital
until probably a week or two after
you've been infecting people
hospitals don't get crowded immediately
they get crowded a couple weeks after
there's a big outbreak
and by then you know it's spread
many, many times over
so you're not
it's annoying
it's lagging indicator
not very sensitive
but it would have to be like an
absolute catastrophe
in order to get to like a
map that is orange
oh yeah this is another thing
if you're not seeing it
if you look at the left one
high is red
red looks bad
you look at this one
high is orange
never can get red
and again in order to get high
you need cataclysmic
and again it's not just hospitals
it's a bunch of other things
or mixed into that metric
just
because it's the most ridiculous
ship
and then they have
on this thing
the orange that they used for high
not even red but the orange
if you look at it next to the orange
from the other map
it looks nicer
it looks friendlier
the green is green
it's not blue it's just like green
so you have the same picture
of the same fucking time
and again
I'm not 100% sure that
these are the same day
and time I think
pretty sure they are but I don't have
an exhausted set of these
so and they're not well labeled
I don't think there's a date
either one of them
but I'm pretty sure I got these
and you can see one is red
and looks terrible
and one is green
and barely has a little bit of orange around it
and remember that in order to be orange
things are really really bad
so those orange spots in here
that don't look that bad
that's like critical
failure of health care systems
but that's really bad
and so this map is set up
the liberty to make it look like
we solved the problem
yeah look things are good
we don't have to worry about it
and it's fucking annoying
Biden turned off testing
he disabled the
weird word I need to think about
is it ableist
he turned off basically
the thing where we had the free
house staff
the free RATs
it again the RATs are not great
but what you should do
and a real country
you have unlimited
tests
if they have to be
an intelligent test that can be
ideally again PCR would be better
but you have these tests
and these tests are free
you can get as many as you want or need
and then if you have a household
you think about this
and somebody gets sick
you want to test that person through the course
and again these are not perfect to test
so you probably test
and even if it's negative you test again
somebody starts comblessing
you use those tests
and you test a couple of times
to see you know for me
especially with an intelligent test
I wouldn't consider yourself
to not be
shedding
and so you get two negative tests
spaced by 48 hours
ideally again those would be PCR test
but you know if you're stuck with
just the intelligent test
that would be something where you get two
48 hours apart
probably okay?
maybe hopefully it's better
sadly it's better than what
most people are doing so
what is the standard here
but that would be a thing that you do
and that already you know if you're getting
four tests per household
if you're one person like me
and you get one scare
four tests are
probably not even enough for you
along and now you have a household
that could have four people in it
that's one test the person
or what if you have five people
in one test that are you supposed to
double up on them
and then again you're not using one
if somebody in the household
gets sick you want to be testing
all the other people in the household
to see if they're
infectious as soon as they get to be
infectious and you want to be testing
them probably every day or two
and you can't do that with
four tests per household
that was a ridiculous thing
and again also like these things
are so cheap to manufacture
and they could have been done
this is one of these
like the privatization disease
that's probably able to
to say too but whatever
this thing where people think everything should be privatized
it's such a problem
because we had like 50 different companies
making these tests because they were
oh it was a nice easy way to make money
right?
did big government contracts
and so you'd get these tests
and they would have different instructions
different
a different protocol for each one
the reagents weren't exactly the same
it weren't really interchangeable
so you'd have to learn how to take one
and then the next time you got tests
you'd have a different procedure
that would not necessarily be compatible
and it's just like so many things wrong with it
and you have to have all the replication
of each of these separate companies
doing the same shit
and different ways
developing their tests
manufacturing these things
versus you could imagine
that we just have a standardized
like a national testing company
and that company has
you could even
contract this stuff out to other people
if you needed to, although I wouldn't like that
but you could
but you basically build standards
for how we make these tests
you build massive factories
for making the reagents
and setting all of this stuff up
you make tests that are not just for one thing temporarily
but they're like oh
you just go and request them
and you can get an unlimited number
of tests that you can use for
the code again, COVID
and RSV and influenza and B
and you just go with them
go down the list
hopefully you have like five or six things
and maybe more
if you have new stuff coming out
then you add that in
that would be nice
so anyway going back to these two maps
I really want you to look
and this map on the right
where it's like the worst is
orange and then it goes yellow
and green
that is not as bad as it got
that was like the first
opening salvo
changing the metric and using this
coloring
they also later on
went to like for
the wastewater testing
literally shades of blue
like the maps were literally
just covered in shades of blue
and like darker blue
was worse and lighter blue
it's so ridiculous
how much
the stuff was changed
to confiscate stuff
how much the metric
was just made up to confiscate
and not to convey
accurate information
how much testing
got turned off
how much not just testing but reporting
and like you look at
if you look at excess stats
first off
they reskilled the excess
deaths
based on a new baseline
and the US
the WHO I don't think quite
did this
as it was based on a bunch of
half departments around the world
and not everybody did it
but in the US and the CDC
they changed the baseline
to a new higher baseline
to make it look
less bad
and you just go through the list
and again it sounds
conspiratorial
what sounds like you know you're just
making shit up
but that's stuff that Biden did
and then when I emphasized
it was Biden
pushing his CDC director
and he could have
the most offensive thing
and this is
this is the last thing I want to talk about
but this is kind of
what we could have done
and addition to
the surveillance
and having like a weather map
and having like you know
today
you should probably go out
and wear a respirator
or you know maybe you don't today
you don't need to today
that kind of stuff
easy stuff to do
I want to
talk very briefly
about
mRNA
and I think this is like the mRNA
in the room
but if I had chapter titles on this
I tried putting chapter titles
in one of these
and it didn't work
and I'm going to add them
at one point in the future
but it's just like
it's a giant pain in the ass
already
to make these
and then
extra layers of work on top of it
and I have to build the pipeline
to put those in properly
I've also given up on the
the transcript thing is a mass
in Apple Music
you're getting the Apple
generated transcript
which for some reason
that's completely ignoring
the transcript to that I put in
which is
yeah
it's another
but mRNA
let's talk about that
so I mentioned this before
but the way that mRNA works
mRNA is messenger
RNA
Rebonically a gasp
a ribose and clay a gasp
this is a sugar
nucleic acid is nucleic acid
and basically this is a way
that we convey genetic information
from our genomes
from DNA
deoxyribose nucleic acid
and our genomes
into proteins
which are
polymers of amino acids
I'm not sure if that's going to mean anything to you
but there are things that get coded
for by the mRNA
it's coded for by the DNA
and that's how we make proteins
and everything that we are
to first approximation
comes from these proteins
and that the proteins
are structural purposes
like collagen
or elastin
or they are actually functional
and they're enzymes
that catalyzer reaction
they make things go faster
basically
they make a certain chemical reaction happen
more quickly and it would just spontaneously
or they do other things
but those are kind of like the general sort of thing
that just means that
in ourselves
if you didn't have mRNA you would be dead
you would be 100% dead
you need mRNA to survive
that is how you function
it's literally just
DNA gets
transcribed
or rewritten as mRNA
DNA if the double stranded
sort of sequence
and then that gets kind of like
opened up and one of the strands is the coding strand
strand
and that coding strand
gets read
by an enzyme
or complex of enzymes
but you know proteins
and some other stuff
and that gets
copied
basically into complimentary
RNA
RNA is a single stranded thing in this case
and that complementary RNA
is messenger RNA
or at least it's the precursor to messenger RNA
it might have some modifications made to it
it might have other stuff happen to it
but that's like the broad strokes of what it is
and then that messenger RNA
and again this is like again
the details
can get messy
where it's coming from
is it coming from
mitochondria
and nucleus
where is it going all this kind of stuff
there's a lot of other stuff that can happen here
but this is the broad strokes
and sort of the general
dog of how genes work
you come to the messenger RNA
and then in that messenger RNA
you have these three letter things
so AUG and C
and each one of these three letter chunks
is called a codon
and that codon
basically codes
codes for
and amino acid
so there's a set of
I think 20 different chemicals
and each one of them is like a little bead on a string
and they
get charged up on these things called TRNAs
transfer RNAs
that have their own little code
complimentary code
and that
through a whole bunch of machinery
matches up with the mRNA
and then puts that bead on the string together
and then they get connected
and then you build a bigger and bigger string
and the specific sequence of those things
dictates the structure of the protein
that you're making
and then the structure kind of determines the function
in broad strokes kind of
don't worry about the details
there is a lot of detail there
but that if you understand the stuff that I just said
at least to a high level
you understand mRNA is not like a magical weird
horrible thing
it's literally you
like it's literally like most of the mechanisms
of stuff getting out of your genes
and into actual practice being made for you
it's how you work
and then we go to
well, SARS-CoV-2
is a coronavirus
and coronavirus is they're called coronavirus
because they kind of look like a crown
their structure is like they have the genome
and then they have this thing around it
don't worry about that right now
but that's kind of the structure
and the genome
guess what?
it's a single strand
of RNA
their single stranded RNA viruses
and it's plus sense
which means it's a coding strand
which means the genome
of SARS-CoV-2
is mRNA basically
again, I'm being a little sloppy with that
but it's basically mRNA
and that means
that again, if you're worried about mRNA
and you're getting infected
you're not getting a little bit of mRNA
from the virus
you're getting a fuckload of it
because your body is replicating virus
and you're getting all of that
and all of yourselves
and not only that but the mRNA
vaccines and one of the things that's beautiful
about these things
one of the reasons why
like when I was in Virrology
the first time to date myself
in the 90s
had that's a long time ago
oh my
holy shit
we were talking like my first Virrology class
that we're talking about how amazing it would be
if one day we could build mRNA vaccines
because what you could do
is take the specific sequence
for a specific protein
that the virus makes
and this would be something where you're not making a full virus
you're not making all the proteins in the virus
you're not trying to attenuate it
so like some vaccines
you have a live attenuated
like a live weakened version of the virus
so the bacteria
and you're not trying to kill it
so you have an activated vaccines
where you have the vaccine
is basically just virus
or bacteria that's been killed
and suspended
you don't need either one of those
so you don't need to grow it
you don't need to do all this kind of stuff
you just need to know what is the protein
that if I build an immune response to this
I can actually have protective immunity
and if you can do that
you're basically simulating having an infection
your immune system looks at that
it sees that it raises antibodies to it
and other things besides antibodies
there's certain T cells and B cells
and a lot of other details
but I'm being sloppy partially deliberately
but also understand the extent
that I'm speaking in children's language
I'm trying to make my target audience here
is that molecular immunologists
it's like, hopefully you're listening to this
and then, yeah
so, losing my mind here
just talking about this
but basically, the virus is mRNA
we wanted these mRNA vaccines
because you can just take that specific protein
that can definitely not become a virus itself
it's only one part of the virus
and you can have your body make it
so you can have a very small amount of it
in the vaccine
you don't have to have a huge amount of protein
that you're injecting people with
having a lot of protein
means you have to make the protein
somehow
and making proteins, especially if they're complicated proteins
or anything like this
it's a whole set of things that you have to do
that are going to be specific to each virus
that will be required in order to make a protein-based vaccine
but if you can make an mRNA vaccine
you can take just the mRNA that will be coding
for a specific protein or a part of a protein
build that, get your body to make that protein
temporarily
and then mRNA incidentally, your body is full of things called RNAs
and the environment is full of them
it's one of the reasons why actually mRNA is really hard to work with
because the environment is extremely hostile to RNAs
RNAs get chopped up very quickly
and so they have a very short half-life
it took a lot of work to make vaccines
with our mRNA that would be stable
so we made those
and now you're able to do that
and you're also able to update them very quickly
because we have
they're called DNA printers
but we have basic mRNA printers as well
we have the ability now to take a specific sequence
like you have the letters A-A-G-G-C-A-C-T
whatever
and then you can make DNA in that sequence
and then you can use that to make RNA
and mass of amounts
in that sequence
or in a complementary sequence I should say
and in doing that
you're able now to make a vaccine
against a completely novel virus
in almost no time
it's one of the things that's beautiful
about these vaccines
it's one of the reasons why they're so appealing
now they're not perfect
and the biggest reason that they're not perfect
is not that they're dangerous
or there's some horrible thing that they're doing to you
it's just that they don't tend to elicit
really effective immune responses
that are really durable
and we're working on this as well
but they tend to elicit immune responses
that they work for a little while
and they kind of fizzle out
and that means that you need to get boosted
very often
this in addition to the fact that
RNA genomes
when you're replicating an RNA genome
you're using an RNA dependent RNA polymerase
they tend to be much more error prone
than DNA dependent DNA polymerases
the things that replicate
say your genes
or like a herpes virus
so if you are replicating these RNA based viruses
you're getting a very high mutation rate
and in that process
that means that in the environment
when you have a lot of people infected
and you've just not really done anything
you have a huge population of mutated virus
out there
basically every replication cycle
you're getting some mutation or another
which means that now you've got
really rapid
evolution
because you have a lot of these different things
and some of them are going to be able to do things
that other ones couldn't
and now you have
all these variants coming from this process
over and over again doing that
over and over again challenging
people's immune responses
and challenging
all the things are trying
not trying to but basically
inadvertently through the process of selection
figuring out ways to work around your immune response
figuring out ways to be more transmissible
figuring out all this kind of stuff
that's the problem
with having like uncontrolled spread
and so there's this policy
you can kind of look it up
it wasn't officially called
air quotes letter-repe
but there was this idea
that
it's not a completely ridiculous idea
I will say in some sense
although it's kind of horrible
except it doesn't work
for a coronavirus
specifically would not work for a coronavirus
because they replicate
too quickly
or too contagious
and their mutation rate is too high
but if you had something that was much more genetically stable
then this letter-repe idea is basically
okay we've got
enough of the population has been vaccinated
and this is the thinking that
the people that kind of vaguely understood this
we're saying
we've got
enough of the population has been exposed
or has been vaccinated
and the hospitalization numbers are down
so if we let everybody get infected
then it will rip through the population
the hospitals won't get overwhelmed
because now we're at this point where
they're not going to be massively massively numbers
or huge numbers of sick people beyond capacity
and then
ideally and again this is wrong
but their thought was
and when I say their thought was
this has to be people that didn't know what the fuck they were doing
because people who actually understand
this stuff would know this is not going to work in this case
but the thought was
okay so now everybody gets it once
and you've effectively vaccinated people
as a group of natural infections
and now they're not going to get sick again
and they're just removed from the susceptible population
because of that
it doesn't work
because as this is mutating quickly
it's able to evade the immune response
that was elicited to
another variant
and so you're able to get infected
like a run of viruses like so I was go to
over and over and over and over again
it also has a immune-vasive
and a immune-modulating properties
so it's not just that it's mutating quickly
but it's able to tweak
and mess around with your immune system
to basically get around
some of your immune responses
and immune protection against it
and so between these two things
let a rectidine work
and couldn't have worked
it was ridiculous to even think that it might work
and all it did was leave us in the situation
now we have unmitigated spread
we have a huge population of infected people
larger population of variants of these viruses
and just it's leaving us with this
I don't want to imply that it's intractable
because you could still
really limit the spread
of things to contain it
and get it down to basically zero
yeah, not exactly zero
but you can get it down to such a low level
that and then if you had that
plus surveillance
very low levels
let people go about their lives
don't have to worry about masking
except in healthcare settings
you still don't get smart
doctors and nurses
you still fucking should wear your masks
all the time no matter what
just like you should still wash your hands
every time no matter what
but people in the general population
who aren't really vulnerable
could probably just go about their lives
and be fine
and then occasionally you'll have an outbreak
you'll detect it because you have good surveillance
you'll isolate people, you have contact tracing setup
you can contain all of that
and the outbreak will fizzle out
and that will be it
and then also if we had
indoor air quality improvements
it would make it much harder for those outbreaks to spread
if we had the doctors and nurses
always burning the fucking masks
as a universal precaution
then it would be harder for it to spread
and now
basically like
not only would it be like this for COVID
but inadvertently
unintentionally
in the same process
as doing that
we would eliminate or really knock down
many other respiratory viruses
it would just be a natural consequence
of doing that
and that could be where we are
and it still could be what we could do
but instead
we get people like ending vaccine mandates
which is going to destroy herd immunity
which incidentally
if you have other viruses
that you know are not that stable genetically
you can do some
like a prior imagination
to what happens when you allow
uncontrolled spread of those things in the population
a lot of people get infected
a lot of virus
which means lots of mutations
which means lots of different chances
to you know
test immune surveillance
and maybe work around it
and then evolve
to things that
are immune invasive
or that at least can escape
the vaccines that we have
and now
best case scenario
you have to create new vaccines
and worst case scenarios
that you just can't make a vaccine
that's as effective
against some of these things
and then you have to really fight
in order to do something about them
and a lot of diseases that are like that
are diseases that you really don't want
their diseases that can cause
things like immune amnesia
and just wipe out your
wipe out all of the immune protection
that you previously developed
from exposure to other things
and from vaccinations
and all that kind of stuff
but it's not something
yeah
it's probably not the best thing
yeah
and so anyway that's where we are
it's just
it's just fucking annoying
to me
it's like it's horrible
it's eugenicist
and it's also wrong
and misguided
like the people who
were making these decisions
including Biden
Biden himself
no fucking clue
not listening to the experts
or if they are experts
they were
very misguided experts
but mostly
like just not
listening
and it gets to
another one of these things
that I hate
about this guy
and one of the reasons
one of the ways that he's
like Trump
is just that these are
like lazy students
don't really care
they don't want to do the work
and because of that
and because they've never
really faced any consequences
for the ship they've done
and their fuckups
we have our in a situation now
where
people are massively
more prone
to believing things like
anti-vaccine
ideas
like vaccines don't work
because they were told
vaccines work in a way
that they absolutely don't work
and so of course they don't work
the way that they don't work
and we have
many more people who are
anti-vaccine
we have less
strong public health
we have less
you know
ability to even
understand stuff
because people don't know
Swiss cheese
everybody should know
by this point
and you know
when you're five years
six years into a
global airborne pandemic
everybody should know about
fucking Swiss cheese
everybody should know
you don't vaccinated individuals
you vaccinate populations
there are a bunch of
things like that
that could have been
and should have been
conveyed in public health
messaging
and weren't
and instead
we have people thinking
vaccines don't work
we have people thinking
that you know
it's not a big deal
it's just a
flu
like the flu
is not a big deal
because the flu
again the flu
kills
20 to 60,000
Americans
museums
I should say
every year
just as a matter of course
COVID right now
is killing
hundreds of thousands
and
both of those
are going to continue
indefinitely
as they are
and now
granted hundreds of thousands
of people
in a scale of
like a population of
330 million
it's not like
it's not huge
but it's a lot
it's a lot of fucking
people if it's your grandma
or if it's your cousin
or whoever
probably a big deal
and that's not even
getting into
long COVID
it's not getting into
the vascular diseases
and neurological diseases
and all the other things
that come from it
and it's also not getting into the fact
that like
we are
primed right now
for
another terrible
airborne pandemic
like if there was
something
if you think about like
bird flu
and it really got
to human
transmission
and head of mortality rate
of like even just like
five or ten percent
but especially if it was like
20 percent
or 40 percent
we'd be so fucked
because in health
like people would get sick
they'd go to the hospital
nobody in the hospital
is masking
so I just
blows through the whole hospital
and then
not only does it take out
the hospital and share
in the hospital
become an excess of transmission
now
you don't have the ability
to deal with sick people
because all the health care workers
are
decimated
or worse
and the
hospitals
blow up
and can't do
like their capacity
is destroyed
because
you know
one of the cool things about
the capitalism
is
excess capacity is
waste
and so you can't have
any kind of resiliency
because
excess capacity is
what you need for resiliency
and so
we don't waste
so now we don't have
excess capacity
so now
we're
just operating at a critical level
and if you ever have any
overflow
things
just implode
it's one of the
one of the big reasons
why more people died
earlier on in the pandemic
was just
more
more
more
more
more like the
actual underlying
sort of
case mortality rate
also again
you know there's this idea
that people have
that you know like somehow
magically evolution
selects against
pathogenicity
but there's no reason to
believe that because
the trends
the only way that would work
certainly on like a long enough
time scale
the
reasons of generations
maybe
but when you're talking about
individual life times
the only way that would work
is if it was so
lethal
that it killed you
before getting
transmitted to other people
and it definitely doesn't do that
it infects you
you spread it to a bunch of people
and then it kills you
or it doesn't kill you
and you know there's
zero selective pressure
literally like you know I mean
there's like a tiny, tiny, tiny
little
little
and on the scale of human
lifetimes it might as well be
zero there's no real
evolutionary select the pressure
that it doesn't mean that it's
going to get more pathogenic
but if there's no pressure
then things just kind of like
diffuse
outwards and things can get more
and less and there's no
directionality to it
it's just chance
and that's not good
that's not like that's the
thing with the pressure
to change
it's disappointing
or it should be so much
better and one day
ultimately like I don't know
what is going to happen
or what it's going to take
one day ultimately it will
be better because
and it's kind of tragic
but like some
horrible
pandemic will come
and it will be much worse
and people will
well I think something
will weigh from people to
is Andy Vax sentiment dissipates over many decades
and then people start going like,
oh, it kind of sucks to have your kids dying.
Again, that maybe why weren't kids dying 30 years ago?
I don't know, I was kind of weird.
I mean, kids die all the time,
but not in mass, not in huge numbers.
Maybe we should figure out why that's happening.
And then you start reinventing vaccines.
That's just so ass-enined.
It's very depressing when you realize
civilization doesn't go in a specific direction.
And it's just so depressing.
And I do think, ultimately, we will get to a better place again.
I just don't know what it's gonna take.
I don't know how long it's gonna be.
many, many people will die,
many people will get permanently injured
Unnecessarily, because we are in the situation we're in.
And that really fucking sucks.
It's just like, I think I have zero doubt
that at some point the apartheid and genocide
And there's the book that's like,
one day, everyone will have always been open against this.
Yeah, one day, I'm confident, everyone will always,
just like everyone now is always against apartheid
there was always against the Shoah.
You know, oh, I say that there are literal Nazis out there
that should be armed, but you know,
broad strokes, hopefully, most of us are on the right side of that.
But you know, inevitably, where it's gonna go,
it's like, why do we have to go through the fucking horror
and the process of this?
It's just irritating, it's just annoying,
Anyway, with that, this is it for the week.
I hope you have a good one.
It's wild that my time here in Bangkok is over.
I could very easily, I think I've said this before.
I don't think I would live here on a long-term basis,
but I could imagine if I was in the position financially
and could just like travel around and live
different places for a while.
I could imagine coming back here for a few months
and like, showing out everyone's in a while
and hopefully developing my tie
so that it's not embarrassing like that.
But, you know, I could see myself doing that.
It wouldn't be the worst place to be.
I definitely have a lot of places that have been
as one of the nicer ones.
I do, like, I can very easily live in Beijing
or Chengdu or, you know, even Shenzhen,
I can easily live in Paris.
I could easily live in the Dred or Oliver Spain.
I could even, like, Vietnam, I could do,
wouldn't be my first choice, but I could do it.
I'm sure much of South Korea is also nice.
Benchipan, I do, like, as well.
I know the colonizer's stuff is bad and then yeah.
The problem is, of course, there's no,
if you start getting into the problems
with different countries, any country has some bad history,
but it's also, like, yeah, there's just pretty bad.
But also, like, you look at Germany now versus Germany then.
I still, I will say, I still, I have been to Germany.
I've been to, well, just Munich, specifically, München.
And I went there and I know that they,
you know, did some level of denotsification.
They do education and they, a lot of people are very,
you know, regretful and hopefully learned.
Unlike the US where, you know, basically just pretend slavery never happened.
Or pretend that it was, like, good for people who were enslaved,
a bunch of horrible bullshit.
At least Germany kind of deals with that stuff a little bit.
But still, when I went there, I was, like, a little,
And you're going to places and you're seeing, like,
oh, these are places that, um, yeah.
I just, I have, I have, like, a inherent aversion.
Just not to say that I hate German people.
It's just, you know, like, there's a little bit of me
is like, uh, not quite, not quite, okay, not quite, okay.
Um, Japan, I can definitely see kind of similar on that.
And I think unlike Germany is not really addressed a lot of the stuff in the same way.
I'm much closer to the US, unfortunately.
But I do, like, you know, having said that, there are things that about Japan that I like.
And then you, back and forth.
But you, where, where is a good place to be?
And then you have to think about, um,
am I being a colonizer wherever I am?
Like, living in Hawaii would be nice.
But also, you think about, like, a or a hally,
b, your, like, not really wanted there and you're definitely being a colonizer
and you're taking resources from people.
And you're raising the, the rents and all of the stuff that's horrible.
And some more way, if I was living here, I'm doing the same kinds of things.
It's, it's very complicated.
I don't know what you would do.
And then you could go, well, okay.
So being in the US and then fight against what's going on
and try to improve things.
But then, um, yeah, I, I will say actually,
this will be the actual end to cap with us and then I'll talk about all that stuff later.
But California, I think Oregon and Washington, and now Hawaii are part of a, uh,
sort of, like, makeshift CDC to take up the slack where the CDC is failing.
And I, and I'm, I'm giving new some zero credit here, but I do appreciate it.
And I do think this is how you actually address this kind of stuff is build parallel systems
and just ignore the, understand that the federal government is not legitimate
and ignore them and do your own stuff.
And definitely don't comply in advance and you actually be better.
I think that's, hopefully you do more of that.
And hopefully you do it well and hopefully you do it better than, uh,
like Biden's CDC, which was a fucking shambles.
And, you know, it's like the Biden thing killed me because I, there was a time, like,
my undergrad was microbiology.
I was always very in-difirology.
I grads, my initial grad was studying gyphirology and immunology.
And I wanted really to work it, like a, a CDC or a U.S. Amrid or something like that.
That was before I understood a little bit more of what, uh, the military isn't all like,
but, you know, I liked the idea I really did.
And then, you know, it's just like it's gone so fucking downhill.
And in the current situation is such a fucking embarrassment.
I'm, I'm very glad that I have that career path because it would be so depressing and devastating.
I, I have friends who work at NASA and, like, the situation there is so depressing.
And, like, you spent your whole life trying to get into this career and doing this career.
And now it's just the thing that you loved is just torpedoed and it sucks at us.
And anyway, uh, with, with that, I'm at your full note.
Thank you. I will talk, uh, again, probably in like a week.