SmotusCast

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Thanks to Brian Beutler of Off Message for joining me on Thursday for a really rich discussion about some key issues plaguing US politics today. Some things we spoke about:

* Left conspiracy theories about Trump assassination attempts: As Brian has written previously, Trump in many ways brings conspiracy theories upon himself. The most recent assassination attempt and the stories invented to explain it remind us that conspiracy theories aren’t just for conservatives; people all across the spectrum can have beliefs along these lines. But rarely does a president echo and even invent conspiracy theories.

* The role billionaires are playing in politics: Obviously, there has always been concern about the role the super-wealthy play in influence elections and legislation. But this role was rarely as overt and ideological as it is today.

I was delighted to join G. Elliott Morris for a live video chat this week. Morris runs the Strength In Numbers newsletter, an incredibly valuable resource for generating, reporting, and analyzing the latest polling trends in US politics. We had a wide ranging conversation, covering such topics as:

* What political scientists have gotten wrong (the 2016 nomination) and right (his threat to democracy) about Donald Trump over the past decade

* The four types of constitutional crises and what we’ve learned about them

* The ramped up redistricting and racial backlash campaigns in the wake of the Callais decision

* Narratives about the 2024 election, and how Democrats reckon with Harris’ loss

* Whether sincerity/authenticity/charisma is a thing and whether the successes of Zohran Mamdani are transferrable

I’m so grateful to GEM for the conversation and for all his help in launching the @smotus report this week. Here’s his rundown of the chat.

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Thanks so much to all who tuned in to watch Julia Azari and me comment on the State of the Union Address in real time! It’s definitely a clunky format, but it was better than watching alone. You can watch above or listen to the podcast version.

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This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit smotus.substack.com/subscribe

I was honored to be invited to a discussion with The New Republic’s Perry Bacon Jr today. We talked about a pretty wide range of things — including ICE’s killing of Renée Good, the seizure of Venezuelan oil, the Department of Justice investigation of Jerome Powell, etc. — which I broadly classify as eroding US democracy, even if they don’t directly affect our ability to vote. We also discussed what Democrats learned from the 2024 election and what that may tell us about 2028. I hope you’ll give us a listen!

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This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit smotus.substack.com/subscribe

If you didn’t get to see this Substack Live interview yesterday, I encourage you to check it out today. I chatted with USC political scientist Sherry Zaks (Sherry Z) about their new book on how well rebel groups in civil wars transition into political parties once the war ends. I (naturally) wanted to know how well this explained what we’ve seen in U.S. political parties. I was particularly interested in Sherry’s thoughts on whether the modern Democratic Party could have more of a service-oriented approach like the FMLN in El Salvador or Tammany Hall in the 1800s, winning voter loyalty that way. Plus Sherry describes a dessert that would probably meet the Supreme Court’s definition of obscene. I hope you’ll check this out!

Podcast version available here.

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This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit smotus.substack.com/subscribe

I had a chat yesterday with Colorado Democratic political consultant ian silverii. He’s the founder of The Bighorn Company, and he’s worked in the Colorado House of Representatives and directed ProgressNow Colorado. He also occasionally teaches at the University of Denver and co-hosts the excellent Get More Smarter podcast.

We discussed how Democrats are interpreting the 2025 elections, what kind of candidates they should be seeking for 2026, and how those candidates should be speaking to voters. Ian’s a big “Let Democrats Be Democrats” proponent, and we get into what it means to be authentic, whether demographics are destiny, and the degree to which Donald Trump has scrambled all useful candidate advice. I hope you’ll listen in! (Podcast version available here.)

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This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit smotus.substack.com/subscribe

I was honored to be joined by Denver 9News anchor Kyle Clark for a lunchtime chat on Tuesday, in which we discussed modern political journalism. We got into all sorts of subjects — the challenges facing local media and why it’s still so important, how journalists deal with increasing threats to their safety, what media bias actually looks like, and the consolidation of media, even in places like Denver. We also discuss whether getting a job as a journalist (if you can get one!) is a good idea. If you’re at all interested what’s happening in political journalism these days, I strongly encourage you to listen in.

Here’s a link to the podcast version.

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This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit smotus.substack.com/subscribe

If you didn’t get a chance to watch my Substack Live video interview with Alan Greenblatt, who recently left his position as editor of Governing, you can watch it above. We discuss various institutions — media organizations, universities, large corporations, and more — that have changed their policies and, arguably, their values to accommodate threats by the Trump administration. Alan talks about why he left this post, gives examples of others who have found ways to push back against unreasonable demands, and offers advice for others looking for ways to be heard. I hope you’ll give this a listen!

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This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit smotus.substack.com/subscribe

If you missed our History Lunch Live session yesterday, here’s the video of presidential historian Alexis Coe interviewing me on the Study Marry Kill site. (You should definitely subscribe to that.)

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We cover a lot of ground, including conspiracy theories, Marjorie Taylor Greene’s breaks with MAGA, historical precedents for Trump’s most aggressive military and policing actions, the evolution of modern political parties, accountability in elections, and much, much more. I’m grateful to Alexis for the conversation and hope to bring her on this site at some point soon. And thanks to all who joined in and asked questions and clicked “like” a bunch of times.

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I was fortunate to run into former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson multiple times during my recent trip to the Iowa caucuses. I give him a lot of credit for being incredibly congenial (and chatting with several of my student) and for seeing through a presidential nomination contest that was clearly not going his way.

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At any rate, I recently reached out to him to ask him about his experiences as a 2024 presidential candidate. We talked about a number of different things, including changes in the Republican Party over the past decade, how much those changes are just about Donald Trump, how changes in the party today mirror what was going during Ronald Reagan’s takeover between 1976 and 1980, and things Hutchinson and other candidates might have done differently over the past year. I hope you’ll find this interesting. I did.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit smotus.substack.com/subscribe