In the latest episode of On The Line, Matt Gurney is joined by Gregory Jack, senior-vice president of public affairs at Ipsos Canada, as they do their best to unpack what the hell just happened on Monday night. And what might happen next.

In the first half, they go tactical. Matt and Greg walk through the horse race numbers — who’s up, who’s down, and who pulled off a surprise. The Conservatives outperformed their polling numbers. The left-wing vote largely consolidated around the Liberals. And a few party leaders lost their seats in results that caught even close observers off guard. Greg brings the data. Matt brings the questions. Together they sketch out what actually happened on election night.

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In the second half, they zoom out to a strategic overview. What does this election really mean? For the NDP, the road ahead is murky: do they rebuild slowly or try to bounce back fast by rolling the dice with an election ASAP? For the Conservatives, it’s an open question whether they’ll work with the Liberal minority — or move straight into siege mode. And for Mark Carney, the real challenge is just beginning. He has a minority government strong enough to last a while, but too fragile to do anything big or bold. Matt and Greg agree: this isn’t the worst-case scenario, but it’s pretty close. Canada remains stuck in political drift — and that drift could last a long time yet.

This episode is also brought to you by the Métis Nation of Ontario. For generations, Métis communities in Ontario helped build Canada’s first great economy — the fur trade. They farmed, traded, raised families, and fought for their rights. In 1993, they founded the Métis Nation of Ontario (MNO) to protect their future. In 2003, the Supreme Court affirmed their rights. In 2023, Canada recognized the MNO as the Métis Government in Ontario. Now, with a newly elected federal government, it’s time to move forward. The MNO is calling on Prime Minister Mark Carney to advance the government-to-government relationship; resolve outstanding historic Métis claims; improve access to health care, mental health, and addictions services; and invest in Métis housing, education, and infrastructure. Generations of leadership brought us here. It’s time to get it done. Learn more at OntarioMetisFacts.com.

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And don’t forget: new On The Line episodes are normally available Tuesday mornings on audio, with the video version rolling out Tuesday evening on YouTube and across our social media channels. (We are delayed by one day this week due to the election.) If you prefer to watch, stay tuned tonight — and make sure you’re subscribed so you don’t miss it.

Thanks for listening. We’ll see you next week.