Rudyard and Janice unpack the big surprises in the war from this week, specifically Iran's escalating attacks against Gulf States beyond their military bases, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz which is disrupting the world's oil supply. Did the U.S. fundamentally misunderstand their opponent before heading into this conflict? Why did this administration not understand that Iran is not Venezuela? This president relies on his gut to make important decisions, and now it will be hard for Trump to end the war without an agreement from Iran and U.S. concessions to the Islamist regime. In the second half of the program Rudyard and Janice discuss the big winners so far. There is an increased demand for Russian natural gas and there are less missile interceptors flowing to Ukraine. The U.S. is overextended at home and abroad. Could Russia and China use Iran as a way to undermine the U.S while it is vulnerable? Will this war spread beyond the Middle East?

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Rudyard and Janice start today's show with the big surprise from this week: Iran striking its Gulf neighbours in an effort to get them to persuade Donald Trump to end this war, which was a serious miscalculation on their part. In fact, the lasting consequences from this conflict will be a rupture between Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran that will be hard to repair. Meanwhile America's military success in Iran has been overshadowed by inconsistent messaging from its political leadership. What is the U.S. trying to accomplish? How will they know if they have succeeded, and when it is time to stop? And will rising gas prices and inflation affect Donald Trump's commitment to seeing this through? In the second half of the show Rudyard and Janice turn to Mark Carney's messaging on this conflict. How should international law play into Canada's position? Carney indicated at Davos that Canada aims to be “both principled and pragmatic". But when it comes to the war with Iran, can we be both?

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Rudyard and Andrew try to make sense of Trump's decision to start a war with Iran so contrary to the premise that created the MAGA movement and opposition to America's wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. How did we end up at this point? And how will this war affect the upcoming midterm elections? Andrew thinks Trump persuaded himself that strike would be easy - just like Venezuela - and thus he has no clear strategy. What is the long term goal here? In the second half of the show Rudyard and Andrew turn to Canada's response to this unfolding conflict, specifically Carney signalling support of the US offensive. What is the calculation going on in the background? How are his goals domestically for bolstering trade informing his foreign policy? And finally, what role should Canada have - if any - in this region-altering conflict? Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to full episodes of Munk Dialogues with Andrew Coyne. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up.

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Rudyard and Janice focus today's episode on the escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Trump's negotiating team has dropped their demands on ballistic missile production and support for militia groups in the region, but the Islamist regime will not give up their nuclear program. Why is Iran unwilling to negotiate when it is so weak politically and militarily? Why would it risk getting into a fight with an opponent with whom they are so unevenly matched? And how much of their position is tied to the religious fundamentalism of its revolutionary movement? In the back half of the show Rudyard and Janice try to make sense of what is motivating Trump to pursue this strike without significant support from his base. What does Iran have to agree to so that Trump is able to back down from this fight and claim a win?

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Rudyard and Andrew react to the fallout from the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling against Trump's tariffs and the President's angry response. How will Trump being denied this authority affect upcoming CUSMA negotiations? Andrew suggests we should expect to see demands from the Trump administration that go far beyond the traditional trade grievances. In the second half of the show Rudyard and Andrew turn to AI and how this new technology will displace white collar jobs. What kind of policy response should we expect from the government in Ottawa? Andrew is more optimistic that this will not be as upending as some are predicting; the history of technological change suggests it will take longer than people suspect for AI to be adopted. There will be jobs lost, but will there be new jobs created? And finally, given that this is a global action program, and we cannot silo ourselves off from the United States and China, what can the Canadian government do to reduce the risk to our economy?

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The U.S. is ramping up its military presence near Iran as negotiations fail to yield any compromise from the regime. We are now in a Middle East standoff which finds Trump trapped. Is a strike inevitable? What are the costs here besides a regional war and where is Iran's defense going to come from? Janice worries that Trump does not have a military strategy beyond the first few days, and this is a conflict that could go on for weeks. In the second half of the show Rudyard and Janice discuss the light strike option that would try to force Iran to come to the negotiating table. If the Ayatollah decides to become a martyr, we could end up with a ruling class of militant revolutionary guards; a group of younger, more radicalized men that will be more willing to use force in the region. Could Trump's actions in Venezuela give us insight into his designs on Iran? And finally, with approaching midterm elections, a MAGA base that doesn't want war, and the potential of skyrocketing oil prices, does Trump need to TACO, climb down, and agree to a bad deal?

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This week, the U.S. President became a troll under a bridge, we learned AI is coming for our jobs, and America could be headed towards war with Iran. But amidst it all, a big story in Minnesota did not get the coverage it deserves: in a major retreat, the Trump administration is withdrawing significant numbers of ICE agents from the area. This story shows the importance of local people on the ground organizing and recording unseemly and unlawful behaviour for the public. Meanwhile there are musings that the President is considering pulling out of CUSMA negotiations as relations with Canada continue to decline and his behaviour gets more erratic. What will happen if he loses in the midterms? A defanged Trump is a more dangerous president than the version we are currently witnessing. In the second half of the show Rudyard and Janice talk about the likelihood of the Liberals calling a spring election to seize on high poll numbers, presenting their case to Canadians as needing a national mandate as they enter into tough CUSMA negotiations. Rudyard and Janice suggest, however, that there is more going on behind the scenes that is driving Canada towards a snap election.

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Donald Trump is trying to claim that the new $6.4-billion bridge built between Windsor and Detroit - fully funded by Canada - should belong in part to the US. This is not just about a bridge, it's a commentary on the decline in US-Canada relations. Trump's bizarre Truth Social post also tries to delegitimize Canada as a vassal state of China and a threat to the United States. Trump is trying to destabilize Canada and all signs suggest he will attempt to use the leverage of CUSMA to impose all kinds of conditions on us as we enter into new trade negotiations. Andrew believes he is overstating his leverage and destroying the American trade position such that every traditional US trade partner is looking elsewhere to make deals. In the second half of the show Rudyard and Andrew turn to Canadian domestic politics and rumours that Mark Carney will call a spring election to shore up a majority government. Why would the Liberals want an election sooner than later? And can Carney get his majority without forcing Canadians to head to the polls?

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Will the US go to war with Iran? Donald Trump is being taunted: if he backs down on his demand that Iran restrict its ballistic missiles program he will lose face in the Middle East. Janice believes that if Iran agrees to a deal that pauses its nuclear weapons program indefinitely Trump should take it and claim a big win. In the second half of the show Rudyard and Janice turn to the big finance news of the week, specifically the mass selloff in software stocks that wiped one trillion dollars from the stock market due to the release of new AI bots that can automate legal and financial services. How can software companies survive in this environment? Why was the market response to these AI bots so severe? This is a signal to how new technologies are coming for white collar jobs in a way that we can't even imagine. Are policymakers working on a response to how radical this job dislocation will be to our economy?

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Members of the Alberta separatist movement have been travelling regularly to meet with members of the Trump administration. Should this be considered treasonous? Does the province of Alberta have legitimate grievances? Equalization is not a good program but it is not a plot against Alberta. How can we pull together and rediscover what we have in common in the face of American hostility? Andrew argues that we must channel this crisis into a positive direction and protect what is good and great in this country. In the back half of the show Andrew proposes a security agenda for Canada to strengthen our democracy and our borders. Where is the urgency and creativity of a policy agenda to match the diagnosis of rupture? And do any of Canada's political parties have the vision and fortitude to rise to this unique challenge?