What can we expect from a make-or-break federal budget delivered in the middle of a trade war? Rudyard and Andrew look at the growing appetite in the business community for broad tax reform—and ask whether now is the moment for Canada to make itself as competitive as possible for investment. If the government wants to deliver meaningful tax cuts, they argue, it will need to tackle spending, including business subsidies, so that companies make investment decisions based on economics rather than government incentives. And with Carney’s government far ahead in the polls and a “wolf” named Trump at the door, is there any better time for the government to spend its political capital on bold economic reform?

Given the government’s retreat from climate commitments, rollback of the capital-gains tax increase, support for pipeline building and moves on immigration reform—is this really a Liberal government? Andrew argues that it is much easier for a Liberal government to do conservative things than for a Conservative government to do conservative things. With Carney enjoying extraordinary freedom of movement, almost akin to a wartime situation, he is taking full advantage of it. But where does that leave the Conservatives?

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Prime Minister Mark Carney says he studied the possibility of U.S.-led military action against Canada in an hour-long interview with The New York Times. Meanwhile, politicians across Canada—from Doug Ford to Carney and David Eby—are enjoying a surge in popularity thanks to their “elbows up” approach to Trump. But is it time to call out this rhetoric as unhelpful—and potentially an impediment to finding a way for our two countries to work through this challenge? Rudyard and Janice agree: this is a trade dispute, not a war, and it is irresponsible for our leaders to suggest otherwise. Canadians should stop worrying about the prospect of war and focus instead on resolving the dispute.

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Parliament opened yesterday with the PM determined to keep his momentum going: a labour reform bill and a major liberalization of project permitting, including for pipelines. What happened to the Trudeau-era Liberals now getting behind Carney’s more conservative agenda? Are we witnessing the beginnings of a broader Canadian realignment, with the Liberals making breakthroughs in Saskatchewan and Alberta? And what is the risk of a spring federal election designed to capitalize on Carney’s current momentum and secure a large majority?

Trump’s threats and the trade war have rallied Canadians around the Prime Minister and narrowed the space for criticism of his government. How open are Canadians right now to criticism of Carney’s approach? Andrew argues that when a country is facing an external threat, voters are less interested in the usual cut-and-thrust of partisan politics. The problem for Pierre Poilievre is that this is the political style he knows best. For now, his best strategy may be to hunker down, weather the current environment and build a stronger position for the moment when—and if—the bloom comes off the rose for Carney and the Liberals.

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Trump says he is weighing whether to "annihilate" Iran next week. Is this another empty threat? We have reached a point where it is increasingly difficult to know how much weight to put behind his threats. The bond markets are beginning to speak, inflation is rising, and U.S. military capabilities are under strain. Trump pays attention to all three. The constraints on both sides are far tighter than they were nine months ago. So why continue with maximalist rhetoric that risks eroding American credibility and deterrence?

This week also saw Mark Carney and Ursula von der Leyen signal a much closer relationship between Canada and Europe, including the possibility of Canada becoming the EU’s first associate member. What does that actually mean? And why pursue this partnership when the world’s growth and dynamism are increasingly shifting toward Asia and the Indo-Pacific?

In the second half of the show, Rudyard and Janice turn to AI and a growing chorus of warnings from the industry’s own leaders, who are calling for stronger safeguards to limit the potential damage if AI systems break out and cause serious disruption to the systems that underpin our everyday life. How much weight should we put behind the argument that regulation and inspection could handicap American AI development and allow China to pull ahead?

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Andrew and Rudyard begin with several important announcements from Carney’s investment summit, including a cut to the marginal effective tax rate on new investment and the opening of Canada’s airports to private investment. The government is aggressively courting both domestic and foreign capital. There is still much more to do on tax and spending reform, and Canada needs to get serious about its deficit and debt—but these measures suggest we are moving in the right direction.

In the second half of the show, Rudyard and Andrew turn to Europe and the warm reception Canada’s prime minister is receiving from EU politicians and lawmakers. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has even floated the idea of Canada becoming an associate member of the European Union. What would that mean, and how could closer ties with Europe strengthen Canada’s economic prospects?

Andrew argues that Western democracies have a growing interest in standing together as they confront an increasingly assertive China and Russia and an America under Trump that is becoming a less predictable partner. Canada needs allies, and deeper economic and political ties with Europe could make strategic sense in this new geopolitical environment.

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Friday Focus returns from its summer hiatus to unpack two major geopolitical flashpoints.

First, the trade war with the United States—and its consequences. There has been a narrowing of the debate around Carney's approach. People are being labelled disloyal for dissenting from his strategy, but we need space for differing views. Tariffs are easy to impose and difficult to unwind. Will Trump turn to more punitive measures against Canada—from natural gas pipelines to banking licenses and work visas? The longer this confrontation drags on, the greater the risk that an already heated situation takes an even more dangerous turn.

Then, the Iran war and a sharp escalation over the past week. The Houthis have made major advances in Yemen, seizing critical outposts and tightening their grip on the Red Sea, one of the world’s most important trade routes. After a period of stalemate that was working against Iran, Tehran appears to be pursuing an “escalate to de-escalate” strategy: increasing pressure on the U.S. and driving up oil prices in an effort to force an end to the blockade. Will the U.S. respond by escalating further and increasing the pressure on Iran? How much economic pain can Trump tolerate at home heading into the midterms? And could he simply wake up one day and declare the war over?

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On this special edition of the Munk Debates podcast, we’re revisiting one of the classic debates from the series’ 18-year history: the Munk Debate on Religion, held in 2010 before a sold-out crowd of 3,000 at Toronto’s Roy Thomson Hall.

The debate resolution was: Be it resolved, religion is a force for good in the world.

Arguing for the motion former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, who had recently converted to Catholicism.

Arguing against the resolution was the late Christopher Hitchens, an avowed atheist and the author of numerous bestsellers including God Is Not Great.

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Rudyard and Andrew unpack a consequential week in the Canada-U.S. trade war, from Trump’s increasingly erratic and provocative behaviour—including the absurd renaming of Lake Ontario—to his apparent preference for perpetual conflict over a lasting trade peace. Andrew believes Canada needs to diversify trade and reduce its vulnerability to U.S. pressure and manipulation. Will Trump’s approach alienate his Republican base ahead of the midterms? How are Canadian politicians capitalizing on the moment? And how much economic pain is Canada prepared to absorb? Andrew is optimistic that Canada is ready to hunker down for a long fight, potentially longer than Americans are prepared for.

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Rudyard and Andrew react to the intensifying Canada-U.S. trade war. Trump is threatening additional tariffs starting January 1, and it’s increasingly clear he was intent on escalating regardless of whether or not Carney walked away from the deal. Carney is putting his Davos message into action: middle powers need to free themselves from the grip of hegemons. It was the right call, with broad agreement in Canada that we cannot allow Trump to bully us into submission. There will be costs, but the cost of staying at the table may have been greater.

Should Canada pursue retaliatory tariffs? Will other countries being targeted by Trump follow Canada’s lead? And finally, can Canada use the upcoming U.S. midterms to pressure Trump into a better deal?

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Rudyard and Andrew unpack leaks from ongoing U.S.-Canada trade talks, which are focused only on the immediate threat of 50% tariffs on Canadian goods rather than negotiating a long-term deal. Even if Canada averts some of these tariffs, CUSMA negotiations lie ahead—and the leaks suggest we may not get full tariff relief on the issues that matter most, including steel, autos, software and lumber, while facing additional concessions on dairy supply management and digital policy.

How are these concessions consistent with Carney’s “elbows up” message? Andrew argues that trying to appease Trump risks feeding his appetite for further concessions. This isn’t a negotiation; it’s extortion. If the Trump administration continues to approach trade this way, Canada needs to mitigate this ongoing threat by becoming a more competitive market and diversifying trade.

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