Society of Professional Economists - Econ Thoughts

Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez and Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the Econ Thoughts SPE Podcast, interviewed David McWilliams, economist, author and broadcaster, who most recently wrote Money: A Story of Humanity.

In their wide-ranging conversation, David and Filippo explored the core ideas behind McWilliams’ latest book, Money: A Story of Humanity .

David explained that money is not just a medium of exchange but a “social technology”—a tool humans invented to solve the problems of complexity, scale, and cooperation as societies grew. Rather than focusing on gold standards or physical currency, he argues that money lives entirely in our imagination and is sustained by shared trust.

The real power of money, he told Filippo, lies in finance—the web of obligations and expectations we construct about the future, which allow us to borrow, speculate, and coordinate at scale. A mortgage, he noted, is essentially "selling a future version of yourself to the present".

The conversation turned to policy and crises, with McWilliams stressing that central banks don't truly control money creation—commercial banks do, by lending. He described financial crises as psychological events: collapses in collective trust rather than mechanical failures.

Filippo and David then discuss what might spark the next crisis, and warned that we’re already living in a fragile system—characterised by rising debt, speculative excess, and institutional mistrust; tariffs often signal a country’s loss of confidence, and with the return of Trump looming, global economic volatility may only intensify.

In the end, both Filippo and David agreed: money’s true meaning lies not in algebra or charts, but in the stories we believe and the behaviours we share.

David McWilliams is an economist, author, journalist, documentary-maker and broadcaster. He is Adjunct Professor of Global Economics at the School of Business Trinity College Dublin. He produces a weekly economics podcast which has repeatedly topped the Irish and English podcast charts.

David is co-founder of the world’s only economics and stand-up comedy festival Kilkenomics – described by the FT as “simply, the best economics conference in the world”. David has written six bestsellers, The Pope's Children , The Generation Game, Follow the Money, The Good Room, Renaissance Nation, and Money: A Story of Humanity, and one of these The Pope’s Children is the best selling nonfiction ever published in Ireland.

David was an economist in the International Relations Department of the Irish Central Bank; Chief European Economist at UBS, Europe’s largest bank; and Head of Emerging Markets Research at Banque Nationale de Paris.

Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez and Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the Econ Thoughts SPE Podcast, interviewed Johan Norberg , Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington D.C. and the European Centre for International Political Economy in Brussels, and renowned author of Open: The Story Of Human Progress, and The Capitalist Manifesto; why the Global Free Market Will Save the World , for which he recently won the distinguished Hayek Book Prize.

In the conversation, Johan and Filippo discuss the cyclical nature of globalization, arguing that openness—through trade, migration, and exchange of ideas—has historically been central to human progress.

Johan explains that periods of retreat from openness, like the current wave of protectionism, often stem from a ‘primal’ fear response amplified by modern economic and social crises and the rise of social media. However, he warns that closing off economy and restricting trade, leads to stagnation, while openness fosters innovation and resilience.

Norberg and Filippo emphasize the importance of not only getting the right policies but also to develop and promote the appropriate narratives and leadership in shaping public understanding of trade policy, drawing parallels to past reforms under leaders like Thatcher and Reagan.

In the final part of the interview, Johan Norberg presents insights from his latest book Peak Human, which explores how thriving civilizations have always relied on dense populations, open trade, and intellectual freedom. He warns that demographic decline and ideological orthodoxy pose real risks, potentially isolating societies from the innovation they need.

The conversation also explores and connects these historical patterns to today’s challenges, including declining fertility and rising AI capabilities. Norberg concludes that embracing AI and staying open to global experimentation are essential to navigating potential decline—just as openness helped past civilizations sustain prosperity beyond their political or demographic peak.

Johan Norberg is an author, lecturer and documentary filmmaker, born in Sweden. He is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington D.C. and the European Centre for International Political Economy in Brussels. He received his MA in the History of Ideas from the University of Stockholm.

He has written books on a broad range of topics, including global economics and popular science. His In Defence of Global Capitalism has been published in more than 25 countries. Progress: Ten Reasons to Look Forward to the Future, was called “a blast of good sense” by The Economist, and a “book of the year” in The Guardian, The Economist, and The Observer. Open: The Story Of Human Progress also became an Economist “book of the year”.

Norberg regularly hosts documentaries on development and economics for American public television, including Free or Equal?, Economic Freedom in Action, Power to the People and the The Real Adam Smith.

For his work, Norberg has received several awards, including the distinguished Sir Antony Fisher Memorial Award from the Atlas Foundation, the Walter Judd Freedom Award, the Julian Simon Memorial Award, and the gold medal from the German Hayek Stiftung, that year shared with Margaret Thatcher.

Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at A&M and SPE Councillor, interviewed Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics and Cato’s Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies, and author of: Defending Globalization: Facts and Myths about the Global Economy and Its Fundamental Humanity.

In the interview, Scott and Filippo discuss recent trends in trade policy and comment on the ups and downs of tariffs announcements and the level of economic uncertainty they are bringing to the market.

Scott Lincicome offers a clear and principled defence of free trade while acknowledging the significant political and economic headwinds it currently faces. He traces the shift in U.S. trade policy from a relatively stable, rules-based system to a more erratic, unilateral tariff regime, especially under the renewed Trump administration.

He is critical of the resurgence of protectionism in U.S. politics— across both parties — as driven by flawed narratives that overstate the harms of trade while ignoring its widespread benefits. Scott emphasises that trade has not been the primary driver of job losses or inequality, and warns that industrial policy often devolves into inefficient rent-seeking.

In the discussion, Scott and Filippo highlight how the effective U.S. tariff rate has skyrocketed — from 2–3% under Obama to potentially 18–25% today — driven by sweeping executive actions often justified by questionable national emergency claims.

Scott warns of the resulting investment uncertainty, economic dislocation, and long-term damage to U.S. credibility, especially given the lack of Congressional oversight. While he sees the courts as a possible check, he’s sceptical that legal remedies will come quickly enough to prevent sustained disruption.

Looking forward, Scott suggests the U.S. might settle into a “new normal” of 10% average tariffs, with China facing higher rates but lower than the original rates suggested in early April, and Canada and Mexico’s position uncertain.

He casts doubt on the idea of a manufacturing renaissance, citing higher input costs, retaliation risks, and political instability as strong deterrents to sustained investment.

On the recent UK–US trade agreement, Scott is sceptical: it is “extremely modest” in economic terms and politically 'inflated'. At this stage he views it as more symbolic than substantive, though more details are to be expected. This is an extremely important and very timely conversation on one of the hot economic topics of the day.

Scott Lincicome is the vice president of general economics and Cato’s Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies. He writes on international and domestic economic issues, including international trade; subsidies and industrial policy; manufacturing and global supply chains; and economic dynamism. See his recent book: Defending Globalization: Facts and Myths about the Global Economy and Its Fundamental Humanity and article: https://www.cato.org/commentary/busting-manufacturing-jobs-myths.

Lincicome also is a senior visiting lecturer at Duke University Law School, where he has taught a course on international trade law, and he previously taught international trade policy as a visiting lecturer at Duke.

Prior to joining Cato, Lincicome spent two decades practicing international trade law at White & Case LLP, where he litigated national and multilateral trade disputes and advised multinational corporations on how to optimize their transactions and business practices consistent with global trade rules and national regulations.

He is routinely featured on TV, radio, and print media. Lincicome has a BA in political science from the University of Virginia and a JD from the university’s School of Law.

Leath Al Obaidi, SPE member and economist, interviewed Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times and author of The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism.

Leath opens with a story of a friend who, after reading the first part of the book, immediately placed a bet on Trump winning the next US election. For him, this captured the book’s argument, that the rise of populism is not a surprise, but the logical result of economic and political systems under strain.

Martin explains how the 2008 financial crisis marked a turning point. It exposed the failure of elites, weakened public trust, and set the stage for what he calls pluto-populism. Economic insecurity, rentier capitalism and stagnant growth have eroded the foundations of democratic capitalism.

They discuss the social impact of deindustrialisation, falling male employment and widening generational divides. Martin also addresses immigration, arguing that ageing societies need migrants, but citizenship depends on legitimate control of borders.

The conversation turns to whether innovation can thrive in authoritarian regimes. Martin believes China is testing that idea but doubts it will succeed long-term. He warns of the danger of democratic societies losing their grip on shared truth, which he sees as essential for reform.

Martin closes with advice for young economists: be curious, write clearly, stay open-minded and don’t cling to theories that no longer fit the facts. He remains cautiously hopeful that democratic capitalism can still recover with bold, credible reform.

Martin Wolf is Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times, a position he has held since 1996. He began his career at the World Bank, focusing on trade and development, before moving to the Trade Policy Research Centre in London, where he specialised in global economic policy. Martin is also a visiting professor at the University of Nottingham and has written several widely acclaimed books, including Why Globalization Works and The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism. He has received multiple honorary doctorates for his contribution to economics and journalism, and was appointed a CBE for services to financial journalism. He is recognised as one of the world’s leading economic commentators.

Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at A&M and SPE Councillor, interviewed Jon Moynihan, business and venture capitalist and author of a two-volume book Return to Growth .

Filippo speaks with Jon about his recent book Return to Growth, where he explores the decline of economic dynamism in the UK and other Western nations, identifying three major obstacles—termed the “three devils”: excessive government spending, high taxation, and overregulation. He argues that these devils stifle entrepreneurialism and inhibit the flow of capital necessary for growth. In his second book, Moynihan contrasts this with the “three angels,” or solutions: free markets, free trade and sound money. He emphasizes that genuine economic growth emerges not from government direction but from the initiative of private entrepreneurs operating in a free market. Drawing on history, he highlights how innovation and prosperity flourished in periods of minimal regulation and targeted investment. The conversation also touches on political challenges, such as the resurgence of protectionism and tariffs, particularly in the US. Jon warns that misguided economic nationalism could repeat the mistakes of the 1930s. Despite political headwinds, he remains cautiously optimistic, citing some growing interest in more free market ideas across party lines.  In the final part of the interview Filippo and Jon focus on what is needed going forward: Jon stresses that rekindling economic growth requires a clear moral and practical case, alongside bold leadership and a renewed public understanding of how free markets drive prosperity.

Jon Moynihan is a businessman and venture capitalist who started his career advising companies and banks in the Netherlands, the US and the UK as a specialist in mergers and turnarounds. He then ran the global firm PA Consulting Group for twenty-one years. He subsequently transitioned into venture startups, creating over twenty companies to date, most of them in the science and technology fields. Jon has worked as a volunteer in the charity sector all his life, including in Bangladeshi refugee camps and other developing countries; in educational think tanks, both managing and fundraising for charities; and in the arts sector, where among other activities he was president of the Royal Albert Hall for a number of years. Jon sits in the House of Lords as Baron Moynihan of Chelsea.

Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at A&M and SPE Councillor, interviewed Philippe Aghion, Professor at the College de France, INSEAD and at the London School of Economics, and author of the book 'The Power of Creative Destruction: Economic Upheaval and the Wealth of Nations' . 
In this engaging interview, Filippo and Philippe delve into the crucial role of innovation in driving long-term economic growth, with a focus on Europe’s position in the global innovation landscape. Aghion, drawing from his Schumpeterian framework of creative destruction, emphasizes that growth stems from successive waves of innovation, where entrepreneurs are motivated by temporary monopoly rents but face eventual displacement by newer technologies. He warns against both monopolistic stagnation and overregulation, both of which can stifle innovation. A key theme is the distinction between catch-up and frontier innovation. Aghion argues that Europe has largely remained stuck in mid-tech incrementalism and needs to evolve into a frontier innovator like the U.S. To achieve this, reforms are essential: creating a unified internal market, expanding venture capital, strengthening basic research funding, and establishing institutions akin to the U.S.'s DARPA. The future of the European economy, he suggests, hinges on embracing innovation-friendly policies as outlined in recent reports by Mario Draghi and others. Aghion critiques rising protectionism and stresses that Europe’s best response to global economic shifts, including U.S. tariffs, is to double down on innovation rather than resort to retaliation. 

Innovation is crucial to productivity, which is key for growth, which in turn leads to prosperity - this interview thus touches on the core of our profession.  

Professor Philippe Aghion is a Professor at the College de France, INSEAD and at the London School of Economics, and an Associate of the Centre for Economic Performance. He is a fellow of the Econometric Society and of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. His research focuses on the economics of growth. With Peter Howitt, he pioneered the so-called Schumpeterian Growth paradigm which was subsequently used to analyse the design of growth policies and the role of the state in the growth process. Much of this work is summarized in their joint book Endogenous Growth Theory (MIT Press, 1998) and The Economics of Growth (MIT Press, 2009), in his book with Rachel Griffith on Competition and Growth (MIT Press, 2006), and in his survey “What Do We Learn from Schumpeterian Growth Theory” (joint with U. Akcigit and P. Howitt.) In 2001, Philippe Aghion received the Yrjo Jahnsson Award of the best European economist under age 45, in 2009 he received the John Von Neumann Award, and in March 2020 he shared the BBVA “Frontier of Knowledge Award” with Peter Howitt for “developing an economic growth theory based on the innovation that emerges from the process of creative destruction.” For more info see: https://www.philippeaghion.com/

Material World: A Substantial Story of Our Past and Future

By Ed Conway, 2024, Penguin Books, 512 pages, ISBN 9780753559178

Reviewer: Arno Hantzsche

In our daily lives, how often do we contemplate the materials that the world around us is made of: gadgets, buildings, infrastructure? As economists, how much attention do we pay to raw materials and their extraction? The answer is often very little – too little – as we take for granted the material underpinnings in our services dominated economy.

In the book ‘Material World’, Ed Conway sets out to tackle our ignorance. Through the lens of six fundamental substances – sand, salt, iron, copper, crude oil and lithium – Conway highlights the complexity of current mining and production networks. He takes a journalistic approach in doing so which makes ‘Material World’ a fantastically rich collection of extremely interesting stories and illuminating anecdotes. The reader is taken back far in history when meteors struck the desert compressing sand into glass, to vast mines and salt lakes that, over millennia, collected precious materials, islands on which bird droppings turned to valuable fertiliser, and into hyper clean micro chip factories.

Some key lessons stand out. While small relative to global economic output and often out of people’s mind, contemporary mining and processing of key raw materials is unbelievably large - both in absolute terms and compared to what humankind has dug out of the ground throughout history until very recently. This, amongst other things, comes with considerable environmental and human rights impacts. Most of the products and infrastructure that define modern society depend on materials changing shape through highly complex global supply chains. Key intermediate inputs are often produced by only a small number of super specialised manufacturers worldwide. This system requires there to be as few frictions to trade as possible.

Two main questions are implied but remain open. I discuss them with the author in the podcast.

First, what can we do as economists to better understand supply networks, in particular risks that emanate from the links in supply chains breaking?

The second question relates to economic policy. In a world with increasing trade frictions alongside political and economic powers rolling back globalisation, how can policymakers manage our reliance on the material world?

‘Material World’ provides food for thought on numerous issues around raw material extraction, production networks, globalisation, and net zero. It is a gripping and worthwhile read.

Arno Hantzsche

Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at A&M and SPE Councillor, interviewed Russel Napier, author of The Solid Ground investment report for institutional investors and most recently author of 'The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-1998: Birth of the Age of Debt'.

Filippo and Russell discuss the current state of the international monetary system and whether it is fit for purpose - does it work for the two major world economies, the USA and China? It probably doesn't in Professor Napier's view and therefore we should expect changes to come - though the timing is uncertain. The currency and monetary imbalances will continue to put stress on the system and there is limited chance for an international coordination 'accord' to fix it. The current policies - including tariff policies - we see today are a reflection of those imbalances and the way policy makers are reacting to them.

Russell and Filippo also review the current trends in Europe - both towards integration, for example in defence policy, but also towards devolution, in the fiscal and monetary realm, and how those two forces may interact in the next few years.

The Letta and Draghi report, as well as Macron's April 2024 speech, loom large in the background: Russell suggests the policies presented in the Draghi report are more likely than not to materialise in some way and therefore there is a positive story for a number of sectors and for investments in 'tangible' assets, which could bring benefits to blue-collar workers in Europe. We even see some bright spots for the UK.

Finally, the conversation covers a very important point: the need for better knowledge and an accurate understanding of financial and economic history, an effort Professor Napier is taking forward through his charitable work with the Library of Mistakes. Please see www.libraryofmistakes.com/ for more information.

Professor Russell Napier is author of The Solid Ground investment report for institutional investors and co-founder of the investment research portal ERIC- a business he now co-owns with D.C. Thomson. Russell has worked in the investment business for over 30 years and has been advising global institutional investors on asset allocation since 1995. Russell is author of the book Anatomy of The Bear: Lessons From Wall Street’s Four Great Bottoms (‘a cult classic’ according to the FT) and is founder and course director of The Practical History of Financial Markets at The Edinburgh Business School. His second book – The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-1998: Birth of the Age of Debt– was published in July 2021.

In 2014 Russell founded the charitable venture The Library of Mistakes, a business and financial history library in Edinburgh that now has branches in India and Switzerland.

Russell has degrees in law from Queen’s University Belfast and Magdalene College Cambridge. He is a Fellow of The CFA Society of the UK and is an Honorary Professor at The University of Stirling and a Visiting Professor at Heriot-Watt University.

Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at A&M and SPE Councillor, interviewed Edward Chancellor a financial historian, journalist and author most recently of The Price of Time.

In the interview, Filippo and Edward discuss the history of the concept of 'interest rates' and how it has evolved over time, from Mesopotamian time until the 20th century when it became the subject of much study and began to be used as a tool of economic policy in earnest. By looking at the story of interest we also necessarily look at the story of financial economics and economic thought itself. Interest rates are to a certain extent the equivalent over time of what prices are in the current market system: information and a means of communication.

The conversation then turns to explaining the clash of thoughts between Hayek and Keynes and their view of interest rates and how they can be used in policymaking - and potentially overused as it has been the case by most central banks over the past 50 years; Edward outlines the thesis of his recent book, on how excessively low interest rates have created imbalances in the global economy in recent times.

Edward and Filippo end with thoughts on the current economic environment and the interaction between current policies in the US, the AI revolution and interest rates. Listen in for a centuries-spanning conversation.

Edward Chancellor is a financial historian, journalist and investment strategist. Edward read history at Trinity College, Cambridge, where he graduated with first-class honours, and later gained an M.Phil. in Enlightenment history from Oxford University.

In the early 1990s he worked for the London merchant bank, Lazard Brothers. He was later an editor at the financial commentary site, Breakingviews. From 2008 to 2014, Edward was a senior member of the asset allocation team at GMO, the Boston-based investment firm.

He is currently a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews and an occasional contributor to the Wall Street Journal, MoneyWeek, the New York Review of Books and Financial Times.

In 2008, Edward received the George Polk Award for financial reporting for his article “Ponzi Nation” in Institutional Investor magazine.

Edward Chancellor is the author of Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation (Farrar Straus/Macmillan, 1999), a New York Times Notable Book of the Year. Devil Take the Hindmost has been translated into more than half a dozen languages. In 2005, he published the report, Crunch-Time for Credit? (Harriman House), an analysis of the ongoing credit boom in the US and UK. His latest book, The Price of Time, has been longlisted for the FT 2022 Business Book of the Year and was awarded the 2023 Hayek Prize

Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at A&M and SPE Councillor, interviewed Samuel Gregg, the Friedrich Hayek Chair in Economics and Economic History at the American Institute for Economic Research and author most recently of The Next American Economy: Nation, State and Markets in an Uncertain World (2022).

In the interview, Filippo and Sam discuss the principles for a flourishing and prosperous economy outlined in Sam's book 'The Next American Economy' - free markets, free trade and entrepreneurship - and how they apply to the current environment.

In particular Sam outlines why over the past 10-15 years there has been a turn away from such principles towards what he calls 'State Capitalism', where government intervention, industrial policies and barriers to trade have become mainstream policies. There are many explanations, including the fallacy of short-termism [focusing too much on the 'here and now', leading to excessive government spending for example], the short-sightedness in applying cost benefit analysis - focusing on local, narrow benefits but missing widely spread costs, and the misinterpretation of economic phenomena - such as attributing financial crises, recessions and job losses to failure of capitalism or the free market.

Also very importantly there seems to exist a crisis of confidence in the morality of the democratic capitalism - partially generated by the consequences of the 2008 financial crisis. Sam explains why that is a false narrative but also why it has taken hold in the general public - in particular how the connection between the free market, free trade principles and the 'establishment' has ended up damaging the reputation of those principles in the recent turn towards economic populism.

For economists there are lots of lessons to learn about how to better communicate the effectiveness of the policies they advise. In the final part of the conversation Filippo and Sam explore some potential policies, actions and options to recover some of the belief in markets and thus creating an environment that is conducive to growth and prosperity, and how they contrast with the actions and words of the various policymakers of today.  It is a realistic, positive and incredibly insightful conversation - and one appropriate for the current economic circumstances. 

Samuel Gregg is the Friedrich Hayek Chair in Economics and Economic History at the American Institute for Economic Research. He has a D.Phil. in moral philosophy and political economy from Oxford University, and an M.A. in political philosophy from the University of Melbourne. He has written and spoken extensively on questions of political economy, economic history, monetary theory and policy, and natural law theory. He is the author of seventeen books, including On Ordered Liberty (2003), The Commercial Society (2007), Wilhelm Röpke’s Political Economy (2010); Becoming Europe (2013); Reason, Faith, and the Struggle for Western Civilization (2019); The Essential Natural Law (2021); and The Next American Economy: Nation, State and Markets in an Uncertain World (2022). 

In 2001, he was elected a Fellow of the Royal Historical Society, and a Member of the Mont Pèlerin Society in 2004. In 2008, he was elected a Member of the Philadelphia Society, and a Member of the Royal Economic Society. He served as President of the Philadelphia Society from 2019-2021. He was made a Distinguished Fellow of the Philadelphia Society in 2023. He is also a Contributor to Law and Liberty and an Affiliate Scholar at the Acton Institute. He is the General Editor of Lexington Books’ Studies in Ethics and Economics Series. 

In 2024, he was awarded the prestigious Bradley Prize by The Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation. This Prize honors scholars and practitioners whose accomplishments reflect the Bradley Foundation’s mission to restore, strengthen, and protect the principles and institutions of American exceptionalism.