Oil prices are back to pre-conflict levels amid good progress on US-Iran negotiations, yet financial markets and household lifestyles did not get a reset from the high costs the war brought on. We explore what’s next after high fuel prices, a brief sell-off of AI stocks, the latest on MSCI’s ruling on Indonesia, and Japan’s momentum in arms exports in this episode.

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(00:00) - Lundgreen's Invest - High-Tech Defence Fund secures quadruple exit

(00:31) - Episode rundown

(00:51) - Intro

(01:20) - Quick updates

(03:21) - Relaxed defence exports in Japan

(07:08) - Global AI stocks sell-off

(11:46) - MSCI postpones decision on Indonesian stock market

(16:32) - Oil prices back to normal?

(24:53) - Our global outlook

A hawkish US Federal Reserve is out to fight high inflation, which we see fueling greater volatility for the rest of 2026. We also look at disappointing consumption data in China, discuss expectations of faster gold accumulation by central banks, and share our expert outlook on the defence sector.

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(00:00) - Lundgreen's Invest - High-Tech Defence Fund secures quadruple exit

(00:31) - Episode rundown

(00:50) - Intro

(01:19) - Quick updates

(03:58) - Total retail sales in China slide down

(12:06) - Our insights into the defense sector

(18:59) - Central banks taking on more gold

(22:42) - US Fed's way forward

(27:16) - Our global outlook

The European Central Bank raised interest rates today – a move we do not agree with, as this will kill any remaining chance of a growth rebound for the region. This episode, we also look at faster US inflation; how the mega-IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will affect global stocks; and Brazil’s plan to ramp up oil production.

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(00:00) - Episode rundown

(00:21) - Intro

(00:48) - Quick updates

(02:21) - Brazil's prospects to expand oil production

(06:36) - AI companies mount mega IPOs in Wall Street

(15:04) - US inflation picks up

(18:09) - A suggestion for the ECB

(22:15) - Our global outlook

Chinese equities are becoming more attractive among global investors and family offices. At home, however, the state is cracking down on outbound equity investments. This episode, we also raise concern about Japan’s new debt for continued oil price subsidies and the rising popularity of convertible bonds in the US.

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(00:00) - Episode rundown

(00:20) - Intro

(00:48) - Quick updates

(02:18) - New supplementary budget in Japan builds on growing debt

(07:12) - More international investors rebalancing towards China stocks

(12:16) - Chinese government cracks down on US equity investments

(16:40) - Warning signs for US convertible bonds

(22:15) - Our global outlook

How will the global economy look like when the Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran conflicts are resolved? Let's find out. This episode also looks at Chinese property developers investing into semiconductor firms to rescue valuations, Italy’s slow progress on reforms, and major central banks signaling openness to rate hikes amid high inflation.

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(00:00) - Episode rundown

(00:23) - Intro

(00:50) - Quick updates

(02:16) - China's property firms find workaround to save valuations

(07:25) - Italy's reform attempts fall short

(13:18) - Central banks on rate hikes amid persisting inflation

(22:33) - What's in for the global economy beyond the US-Iran conflict

(30:03) - Our global outlook

Developing Asia is feeling more squeezed as oil prices stay high. We look at further demand reduction measures in the Philippines to avert stagflation, Thailand’s new debt for additional consumer subsidies, and India winding down fuel support. We also turn down Indonesia’s planned export controls on coal and palm oil, and revisit our expectations for global stocks in 2026.

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(00:00) - Episode rundown

(00:18) - Intro

(00:46) - Quick updates

(02:35) - Danantara's new export controls on coal, palm oil

(08:00) - Managing oil prices and domestic demand in the Philippines and Thailand

(13:03) - India PM slows down fuel subsidies

(18:55) - Our conviction vs market forecast on global stocks

(25:41) - Our global outlook

Oil prices may have already peaked in reaction to the US-Iran conflict, but food prices are slowly catching up. This episode also looks at the removal of 18 Indonesian stocks from MSCI indices, the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, and surging UK gilt rates amid renewed political uncertainty.

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(00:00) - Webinar: ‘Where Can Indexes & Factors Fall Short?’

(00:34) - Episode rundown

(00:49) - Intro

(01:16) - Quick updates

(02:27) - Removal of 18 Indonesian stocks from the MSCI global indices

(07:18) - Trump meets Xi in Beijing

(14:17) - US-Iran conflict and the rise of global food prices

(21:01) - UK gilt rates reach new peaks

(25:16) - Our global outlook

The Asian Development Bank advises governments to wind down blanket subsidies even as oil prices stay elevated, citing the need to preserve/keep fiscal buffers beyond this crisis. This episode also looks at trade ties between Japan and Latin America, rising US Treasury yields, and Germany’s new growth plan.

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(00:00) - Episode rundown

(00:16) - Intro

(00:44) - Quick updates

(03:43) - Japan diversifying trade to Latin America

(09:18) - ADB's advice to governments amidst sustained, high oil prices

(16:30) - Poll: Oil price outlook

(16:50) - Trivia: Where do Chinese jumbos go?

(20:06) - Record-high US 10-year Treasury yields

(24:29) - German government's new attempt at growth

(26:41) - Our global outlook

The income gap between mature and emerging markets is narrowing – apart from GDP growth, income tax rates are squeezing people’s purchasing power. This episode also looks at some wins and losses for China’s economy, and the UAE’s departure from the global oil cartel.

Join us on Wednesday, 6 May 2026 for “Big Bets on China AI Stocks”, a quarterly webinar hosted by our multi-awarded Lundgreen’s Invest – China Fund. The fund managers will discuss strategies to maximise returns amid global disruptions. Please register here: ⁠https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_julp5eMtRdeRr_NM6YlBIg#/registration

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(00:00) - Episode rundown

(00:12) - Intro

(00:40) - Quick updates

(02:01) - Positive change in China's credit rating outlook

(08:10) - Moving the bar for the global middle class

(25:24) - UAE leaves OPEC

(28:00) - Our global outlook

China’s price war problem has spread to online food orders, putting attempts to perk up domestic consumption at risk. Episode 80 also looks at MSCI’s delisting of two Indonesian stocks, Japan lifting its export ban on weaponry, and shifts in the global middle class.

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(00:00) - Episode rundown

(00:14) - Intro

(00:42) - Quick updates

(01:49) - China price wars spreads to e-commerce

(07:44) - MSCI responds to stock frying in Indonesia

(14:18) - Japan relaxes weaponry sales

(19:28) - Shifting global middle class

(31:07) - Our global outlook