Squawk Box Europe Express

Weaker-than-expected retail and factory data prompts the Chinese central bank to slash the key lending rate as its zero-Covid strategy continues to impact the country’s economy. The S&P 500 posts its fourth consecutive winning week ahead of a slew of U.S. retail earnings. However, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin tells CNBC that demand is softening. In energy news, Saudi Aramco hits a record $48.4bn profit in the second quarter.

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The recent U.S. equity rally stalls despite July wholesale prices showing a surprise decline. Treasury yields edge higher on anticipation the Federal Reserve can achieve a ‘Goldilocks’ soft landing. In pharma news, GSK, Sanofi and Haleon all see shares slump due to continuing litigation issues relating to a recalled heartburn drug. UK GDP figures are due out with soaring utility prices set to weigh heavily. And U.S. EV maker Rivian posts a Q2 loss of $1.7bn, sending shares tumbling in after-hours trade.  

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The Nasdaq bounces back to bull market territory following yesterday’s better-than-expected inflation report. U.S. President Joe Biden says a lot more needs to be done to bring prices down. Treasury yields also contract on investor anticipation of less aggressive rate hikes but three Fed officials maintain there will further rises this year. Disney shares are in the green in extended trade on strong Disney + subscriber numbers. The entertainment giant has announced a price hike for the streaming service. And in Asia, Soft Bank has cut its Alibaba stake to 14.6 per cent to raise $34bn in a bid to bolster its balance sheet.

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Expected U.S. inflation data causes both U.S. and Asian equities to fall, with consumer prices rising at their fastest rate in 2 years. Chip maker Micron posts a weaker-than-expected forecast with continuing supply chain headwinds impacting sentiment. Elon Musk sells almost $7bn of Tesla shares in anticipation of the possibility he may be forced to complete the Twitter purchase. In the UK, ministers warn of possible power blackouts this winter and prepare for worst-case scenarios should energy prices continue to soar.   

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The recent U.S. equity rally pauses with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both closing lower ahead of tomorrow’s inflation report. Chip maker Nvidia issues a Q2 profit warning due to slumping gaming sales. In China, there are further Covid flare-ups with authorities locking down in parts of Tibet and Xingjiang, just a day after restrictions were imposed on the tourist island of Hainan. Norway has warned that it may ration electricity exports to Europe following low summer rainfall affecting its reservoirs.  

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U.S. non-farm payrolls surprise to the upside which help to ease recession fears but also bump up Treasury yields as investors anticipate further Fed rate hikes. Chinese exports see faster-than-expected growth in July but imports suffer due to Beijing’s strict zero-Covid policies. The recent political upheaval in Italy has prompted ratings agency Moody’s to cut the country’s outlook to negative ahead of September’s general election. And in corporate news, Berkshire Hathaway suffers a $53bn loss on its investments in the second quarter.  

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Investors await key non-farm payrolls jobs report. Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester has reiterated the central bank’s resolve to rein in inflation via rate hikes. On this side of the pond, the BoE hikes rates by 50 bps – the largest move it has made in 27 years. Governor Andrew Bailey says the UK is likely to fall into recession in the fourth quarter with inflation topping 13 per cent by October. Tesla shareholders approve a 3-for-1 share split. CEO Elon Musk suggests building more giga-factories and offering a share buyback. And Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba posts a Q2 beat but revenue falls for the first time since its New York IPO, due to Beijing’s strict zero-Covid policies.  

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U.S. markets rally and yields retreat as better-than-expected services data prompt investors to ignore recession concerns. This, as Fed officials continue to push to curb inflation. We hear from St Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard who favours front-loading and shrugs off talk of a U.S. recession. We are live at the Bank of England where the MPC considers raising rates for the sixth consecutive time in what could potentially be its largest hike in 27 years. In energy news, Opec + members disappoint the White House by hiking output by a modest 100,000 bpd.  

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Wall Street closes in the red for a second day running and Treasury yields rise following hawkish comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who says that the battle to rein in U.S. inflation is far from over. Tensions are high in East Asia after U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi touches down in Taipei to pledge close support for Taiwan, irking the CCP administration. Pelosi is the highest ranking U.S. official to visit the island in 25 years. We speak to Société Générale CEO, Frédéric Oudéa, who has seen the lender’s Q2 revenues surge by 13 per cent. Also, Chinese July PMI storms back expanding at its fastest pace for more than a year as Covid restrictions were finally lifted.

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Asian markets slide on geo-political and recession concerns. WTI falls to below $93. The RBA hikes interest rates by 50bps but the Australian dollar falls on the news. The central bank says that inflation Down Under is yet to peak. Beijing warns that it will react if it believes its sovereignty is threatened ahead of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s proposed visit to Taiwan. Social media company Pinterest sees shares surge in extended trade after activist investor Elliot Management confirms a large stake in the company.

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