Squawk Box Europe Express

A short-lived rebound … the major U.S. averages rally by more than 5 per cent on the back of stimulus hopes but U.S. futures fall and Asian stocks turn lower. President Trump’s administration promises a massive $1tn rescue package in light of the global Coronavirus crisis, including tax breaks and cash handouts. A CNBC source learns that U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has warned senators that U.S. unemployment could hit 20 per cent if his fiscal proposals are not enacted. In the UK, Chancellor Rishi Sunak unveils a £350bn fiscal programme to shore up businesses affected by the outbreak and says he won’t hesitate to increase this figure should demand increase. Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU shuts its external borders with the drastic lockdown set to last for a month at least.

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The worst day since Black Monday…the Dow suffers a 3,000-point sell-off in its third-biggest loss ever, and the most dismal day since 1987. The market’s volatility gauge - the VIX - swings to a record high as President Trump warns the U.S. economy could fall into recession. The U.S. also says the outbreak could drag into August. U.S. airlines have said they will require a $50bn bailout which could be the largest rescue package since the terrorist attacks of 9/11. In auto news, VW posts solid full-year data for 2019 but says that guidance for 2020 has now become impossible. Airbus temporarily suspends work at its French and Spanish assembly plants in order to contain Coronavirus. And in the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson ramps up restrictions and advises Britons against non-essential contact and travel.  

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Big bazooka…the U.S. Federal Reserve launches a round of emergency measures, cutting interest rates by 100 points to zero, initiating a $700Bn QE programme, which includes treasuries and mortgage-backed-securities purchases. It also injects additional dollars in a coordinated action with other central banks around the world. Chairman Jerome Powell says liquidity is the top priority in light of the volatility caused by the Coronavirus outbreak. The markets, however, are not convinced. U.S. futures plunge, hitting limit-down, as the Dow drops 1,000 points. Asian indices fare no better, despite additional measures by the Bank of Japan. Europe shuts down, with Spain quarantining its 46m citizens and France and Germany closing large parts of their economies and beefing up border security. Boris Johnson’s government is pressured to do more as President Trump’s travel ban is extended to the U.K. and Ireland as of tomorrow. And there is dismal data from China as industrial production and retail numbers collapse. Fixed asset investment falls for the first time ever.

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The worst session since Black Monday in 1987. The Dow sheds another 10% as the Fed's $1.5 tn cash injection fails to stem the declines. But US futures turn cautiously higher and Asian stocks come off session lows. In Europe, ECB President Christine Lagarde tells CNBC exclusively that fiscal policy should be the first front in the fight against the outbreak. Lagarde also rejects President Trump's branding of COVID-19 as a 'foreign virus'. France becomes the latest European country to shut schools, as President Emmanuel Macron pledges to do “whatever it costs” to prop up the economy against the virus outbreak. Airline shares across the world plunge deep into the red on the U.S.’s TransAtlantic travel ban, with European leaders pledging to support the region's hardest hit carriers.

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A Transatlantic Travel Ban. President Trump bans travel between the U.S. and Europe and blames the Continent for 'seeding' virus hotspots in the States, sending US futures sharply lower. It’s the end of an 11 year bull run as the Dow pushes into bear market territory. This as the World Health Organization officially declares coronavirus a pandemic. Asian stocks follow suit, with the Nikkei falling more than 4 percent. Italy's lockdown tightens. The government closes all but essential services in the toughest restrictions since World War 2. And the pressure piles up on the ECB to act, with analysts predicting a mix of policy measures and rate moves to help the euro zone economy cope with the market shocks.

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In a special edition of the Squawk Podcast, we bring you two parts of our 3 hour programme.

Part 1: A whipsaw session as US stocks swing from a 900 point rally, to the brink of bear market, and back again, while Asian equities take a leg down amid unanswered questions over US stimulus. US Futures also trade lower after President Trump pitches a zero percent payroll tax rate, but his team fails to provide details on a promised fiscal package. EU leaders pledge decisive action to tackle coronavirus, announcing fresh investment and measures to prop up small business.

 Part 2: The Bank of England surprises markets with a 50 basis point cut, lowering interest rates from 0.75% to 0.25% and joining the Fed in delivering its first emergency move since 2008. The BOE warns that economic activity will weaken significantly due to the Coronavirus shock

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Rebounding from a historic rout. U.S. markets come close to entering bear market territory after the Dow sinks 2,000 points as virus fears and an oil price war knock 5 trillion dollars from stocks. But crude prices bounce back from the worst day in almost 3 decades and US futures rise as President Trump teases potential stimulus including a payroll tax cut, ahead of meetings with congressional Republicans and Wall Street executives. Italy quarantines the entire country as Europe's fourth biggest economy becomes the largest outbreak outside China. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte says it faces its 'darkest hour'. And finally Chinese inflation slows and factory prices fall as the virus continues to weigh on the economy, while fresh research points to a more than 50 percent plunge in monthly mobile phone sales.

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Oil price war. Crude prices crash 30 percent in the worst day since the Gulf War, as Saudi Arabia floods energy markets, looking to punish Russia for obstructing OPEC-Plus output cuts. Asian stock markets plunge with the Nikkei hitting a 14-month low and Australia's benchmark index posting its worst fall since the financial crisis, while US futures trade limit down, pointing to another rough day on Wall Street. US 10-year treasury yields hit a new record low as the prospect of rates turning negative becomes a reality, while the 30-year yield goes below 1 percent for the first time ever. Over 16 million people are put into lockdown in Italy as the government takes drastic measures to stem the worst outbreak outside China. But leaks of the action cause confusion and a rush across regional borders. And finally women rally across the globe to mark International Women's Day, upping calls for equal pay and fair representation.

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A week of swings… The Dow suffers another near-1,000 point drop, as Coronavirus fears take hold again while Asian equities move deeper into the red. The yield on the U.S. 10-year treasury falls to another record low, nearing 0.8 per cent. Bond king Jeffrey Gundlach tells CNBC the outbreak has put a fork in the economy and could tip the U.S. into recession. Oil prices slide despite OPEC's decision to make the biggest output cut since the 2008 crisis, if Russia gets on board. Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo tells CNBC extreme circumstances warrant the move.

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On the up… Chinese stocks hit a two-week high after the Dow surges more than a thousand points boosted by healthcare stocks and Joe Biden's strengthened bid in the Democratic presidential race. The U.S. House of Representatives passes an $8bn emergency funding bill to combat COVID-19, while the IMF sets aside a $50bn aid package, as managing director Kristalina Georgieva warns global growth will slow this year. Oil prices start to rebound as Opec meets in Vienna, with Russia reportedly pushing back against Saudi plans to slash supply cuts even further. And in corporate news, troubled UK regional airline FlyBe goes into administration just two months after securing a controversial government rescue deal. Coronavirus is cited as adding to the carrier’s woes.

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