Squawk Box Europe Express

The Fed delivers a rate cut - but the most significant dissent in six years, and division over the policy outlook, reveal a split within the central bank. Nasdaq futures falter as Oracle's data centre spend surges, sending the stock down by double-digit percentage points in extended trade - as Norway's Sovereign Wealth fund shows caution on investing in the infrastructure. Bitcoin slips, briefly dipping below $90,000 and extending a fourth quarter downturn as traders brace for a potential crypto winner. 

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Markets fully price in a 25-basis point cut at today’s Federal Reserve meeting, while deep divisions within the central bank put investors on edge about the potential for easing next year. Chinese consumer prices rise at their fastest level in two years, but factory gate prices remain in deflation territory for the 38th month in a row. Donald Trump condemns European leaders as ‘weak’ and says they ‘don’t know what to do’.

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The Federal Reserve is deeply divided over its December rate decision as hawkish commentary around the FOMC’s two-day meeting causes jitters among investors. President Trump is set to authorise exports of Nvidia’s H200 chip to ‘approved’ customers in China with 25 per cent of sales to be paid to the U.S. government as part of the agreement. Paramount has launched a last-minute $100bn offer for Warner Brothers Discovery in an attempt to thwart Netflix’s acquisition. Paramount CEO David Ellison says a deal with Neflix could potentially destroy Hollywood.  

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Investors anticipate a Fed Christmas rate cut later this week with other central banks’ final policy meetings potentially following suit. Soaring Chinese exports to the EU push the country’s surplus beyond $1bn for the first time. Outbound shipments are up almost 6 per cent on the year with French President Emmanuel Macron threatening to slap tariffs on Beijing. Swiss lender UBS could soon benefit from the loosening of a banking regulation package which would otherwise require it to raise an additional $24bn in capital.

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Global bond yields rise amid complicated pictures in the USA and Japan. Treasurys saw yields rise on stronger U.S. jobs data, while deepening expectations of a rate hike by the BOJ sees JGB prices fall. Elsewhere, Netflix has reportedly won the battle over Warner Bros Discovery; and Meta shares rise on reports the company is planning sweeping cuts to its ‘metaverse’ unit, a former darling of CEO Mark Zuckerburg.

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European markets are cautiously optimistic as weaker U.S. payrolls data overnight boosted hopes of a Fed rate cut next week. It’s a heavy day for geopolitics – French President Emmanuel Macron is in Beijing for a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, with focus centered on expanding partnership and deepening understanding amid increased trade tensions. Elsewhere, the European Commission presented the details of its plan to use frozen Russian assets to help finance Ukraine.

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Risk sentiment is reentering markets this morning after AI optimism fueled gains in the U.S. overnight. Also in recovery is Bitcoin, which is surging higher following a week of brutal loses. On the geopolitical front, Russia and the U.S. failed to reach consensus on a deal to end the war in Ukraine, despite five hours of talks in Moscow. Elsewhere, two big AI names, Anthropic and OpenAI, in focus – Reports suggest Anthropic is in early talks to launch what would be one of the largest IPOs in history next year; while OpenAI CEO Sam Altman issued a companywide ‘code red’ memo this week, warning employees over increasing competition in the chat bot space.

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November was a whirlwind month for cryptocurrencies, and it seems that volatility is carrying over into December with Bitcoin posting its worst single day decline since March yesterday. Meanwhile, the head of the U.K.’s budget watchdog resigned after the OBR accidently released its report ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget last week. And in an exclusive interview with CNBC, the Bank of England’s Megan Greene laid out her outlook for the economy, and what she’d need to see in the labour market and inflation figures to prompt a rate cut.

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Markets eye a cautious start to December with risk-off sentiment still very much in play amid AI valuation fears and continuing weakness in cryptocurrencies. U.K. Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces fresh scrutiny as claims swirl that she misled the public about the state of the country’s finances ahead of the budget last week. Progress continues over Ukraine – U.S. officials met with Ukrainian negotiators over the weekend, while a U.S. delegation heads to Russia to hammer out the details of a peace deal.

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U.S. markets return following the Thanksgiving holiday but a technical glitch at a CME Group data centre impacts futures trading across equities, treasuries and commodities. European markets see out a turbulent month of November having seen large moves within the tech, health and defence sectors. The Nasdaq break a seven-month winning streak due to ongoing concerns around A.I. stock valuations. Russian President, Vladimir Putin comments on Ukrainian-American peace efforts, saying the talks could form the foundation of a future agreement ahead of next week’s talks with Hungarian PM Viktor Orban and the U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff.  

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