Squawk Box Europe Express

Chinese manufacturing growth in August came in at its weakest for a year while retail sales slumped to a nine-month low. Fitch downgrades France's credit rating to A+ from AA- due to a rising debt ratio and political upheaval following the collapse of Francois Bayrou's government. The UK announces investment from big banks and a nuclear power agreement ahead of President Trump's second state visit. However, several large pharmaceutical companies are snubbing further investment in the UK following a falling out over drug pricing. 

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U.S. core inflation data comes in as expected while unemployment claims are almost at 4-year highs which boosts hopes of a Fed rate cut next week. Global equities respond by pushing into the green. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to hold talks with Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng in Madrid next week. Top of the agenda will be trade, security and Tik Tok’s presence in the U.S.

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A 36 per cent surge in Oracle shares helps to fuel a second day in the green for the S&P 500 after the tech giant announced a series of multi-billion dollar A.I. cloud deals. A police manhunt is under way following the assassination of conservative activist and founder of Turning Point USA, Charlie Kirk, at a university campus event in Utah. The ECB is expected to hold interest rates steady today but further cuts are still expected by year-end as French political gridlock threatens wider growth across the euro zone. And buy-now, pay-later lender Klarna makes its public debut on the NYSE, breathing new life into Wall Street’s capital markets.

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Israel fires missiles at Hamas’ leadership targets in Qatar, undermining hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza and drawing the ire of President Trump. Emmanuel Macron appoints defence minister Sebastien Lecornu as his next prime minister. Lecornu is now tasked with passing the government’s reform agenda as well as a its fiscal package. A U.S. judge has temporarily prevented President Trump from firing Fed governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage improprieties, saying that the claims of fraud before she was appointed would not constitute grounds for removal. And in pharma news, drug maker Novo Nordisk is set to slash up to 9,000 jobs on the back of weaker sales and strong competition Stateside.   

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We are live in Paris where the French government has collapsed after Prime Minister Francois Bayrou loses a vote of confidence over his austerity budget. France will now seek its fifth prime minister in less than two years. Bayrou warned lawmakers that while they can oust him, they cannot ‘erase reality’ about the country’s ballooning debt. We are also in Munich at the IAA Mobility 2025 show where European car makers show off their latest models with Chinese rivals cranking up the pressure across the Continent. Xpeng boss He Xiaopeng tells CNBC he plans to take his mass-market Mona brand overseas next year. At the Gastech summit in Milan we speak to TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné who says European energy markets must diversify in the face of Opec+ output hikes, U.S. tariffs and tighter sanctions on Russia. And the European single market also dominates discussions at the Ambrosetti Forum with former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta telling this channel that President Trump’s tariffs have served as a ‘federator’ for European unity.

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We hear from U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal at the Ambrosetti Forum who calls last week’s military parade attendees in Beijing “a tableau of tyrants”. The Democratic senator for Connecticut urged the U.S. and Europe to present a united front against an “axis of upheaval”. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigns after less than a year in power following a sequence of failed elections. The Nikkei, however, surges on anticipation Ishiba’s successor may usher in wider fiscal loosening. French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou is on the verge of being ousted in today’s vote of no confidence in his austerity budget - a result which will raise concern over France’s ability to cut debt and spending. In oil news, Opec+ nations move to unwind production cuts, boosting output by 137,000bpd in October as Saudi Arabia looks to reassert its market dominance.  

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We are live on the shores of Lake Como in Italy where trade and defence will the focus at the Ambrosetti Forum. We hear from Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz who says the EU should have performed better in trade negotiations with the U.S. The S&P 500 hits a new record high and bond yields fall following this week’s multi-year highs as markets await today’s U.S. jobs data, hoping for further Fed rates easing. Ukrainian allies agree to post-war security guarantees at a summit in Paris with arrangements made for international troops to be stationed on land and at sea, despite admitting that a peace deal remains elusive.

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The recent bond rout calms but deeper concerns about the global fiscal picture keeps bond yields at multi-year highs. We hear from Commerzbank CEO Bettina Orlopp who says markets should closely monitor government responses. In the U.S., a soft jobs reports raises hopes of a September rate cut and helps ease pressure on the bond market. Fed chair candidate pick Christopher Waller suggests more rate cuts are on their way. And in France, President Macron holds a ‘coalition of the willing’ summit for Ukraine and its allies as supportive nations seek to shore up U.S. support for eventual post-war guarantees.

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French and British bond yields hit multi-year highs as a rout develops on fiscal concerns. Beijing hosts world leaders including Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un at a mass military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of WW2. In tech news, Alphabet company Google notches a huge anti-trust win following a ruling by a U.S court which deemed it would not have to offload its Chrome browser. However, the company was instructed to share its search data with rivals. 

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Nestlé ousts its CEO Laurent Freixe following the revelation of an undisclosed relationship with a subordinate co-worker. The head of Nespresso, Philipp Navratil, has been appointed to run the Swiss food giant. Russian President Vladimir Putin has held talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, calling him ‘a dear friend’ as the two countries seek to strengthen global alliances following the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit. In France, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National party calls for new elections as Prime Minister Francois Bayrou’s government teeters on the brink of collapse.   

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