Squawk Box Europe Express

The U.S. is set for Ukraine peace talks with Russia while President Macron calls for an emergency summit of European powers in Paris. We hear from the German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock at the Munich Security Conference who says the West must step up to the plate and demonstrate unity on the war in Ukraine. Her comments follow U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s speech on the ‘retreat’ of European values at the MSC on Friday. In Germany, all four main candidates vying to become the next Chancellor clash in a heated televised debate. Friedrich Merz’s CDU leads the polls at around 30 per cent with the AfD in second on 20 per cent. And in tech news, Tencent shares surge on the news it is looking to integrate the Chinese AI firm DeepSeek model into one if its main apps.  

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President Donald Trump has announced he is launching reciprocal tariffs against all U.S. trading partners which would be calculated on a country-by-country basis and would take both tariff and non-tariff barriers into account. U.S. markets have so far shrugged off the latest tariff threats while wholesale inflation shows signs of slowing. Europe’s largest lender, HSBC, is due to announce a new round of global job cuts which could amount to $1.5bn. Meanwhile, Santander denies reports of a potential sale of its UK retail arm to Natwest. And Italian luxury brand Moncler posts a robust top and bottom line quarterly beat, driven by strong demand in China.

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Elon Musk has urged the U.S. government to scrap entire agencies to save up to $1tn as part of his DOGE bureaucracy revision. Markets are spooked after a hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation print with the 10-year Treasury yield nudging past 4.6 per cent. We hear from billionaire investor Ray Dalio who says he is concerned over inflated asset prices coupled with the threat of rising rates. President Trump has announced he held a lengthy phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin about beginning negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Commerzbank posts record Q4 profits which have surged by 6 per cent to €11bn. Siemens beats revenue growth expectations in the first quarter despite a slump in orders at the company’s mobility unit.  

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U.S. President Donald Trump orders government agencies to work with Elon Musk’s Department Of Government Efficiency to make cut-backs. Musk slams critics of the project and says the American electorate has voted for the reforms. We are live in Paris at the AI Action Summit where the U.S. and UK have refused to sign up to an official communiqué as differences over regulation and governance continue. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance says Europe’s approach to the sector is “excessive”. On Capitol Hill, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell touts the strength of the U.S. economy but refuses to comment on President Trump’s trade policies. The UK’s OBR has warned Chancellor Rachel Reeves may have to break her own fiscal rules following a disappointing first draft forecast. And Deutsche Boerse posts a 25 per cent Q4 profit rise but warns of headwinds later this year due to lower interest rates.

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UniCredit posts a record-breaking year and its 16th straight quarter of growth, as net profit comes in just shy of 10 billion euros despite more than 1 billion in extraordinary charges. CNBC spoke exclusively to CEO Andrea Orcel on the company’s earnings and Italian banking consolidation. U.S. President Donald Trump signs off a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports – and warns of further trade levies in the coming weeks. Gold hits a fresh all-time high, settling its record for the fifth time this year as tariff tensions push investors to the safe haven asset. Meanwhile Sam Altman brushes off an unsolicited $100 billion bid from Elon Musk to buy OpenAi as the billionaires’ bitter rivalry takes a new turn. In Paris, President Emmanuel Macron pledges to roll back European red tape at the AI Action Summit, as the bloc battles to keep up with the U.S. and China.

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U.S. President Donald Trump adds a new front to his trade war, as he threatened 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, and promises further “reciprocal” levies in the coming days. Meanwhile Chinese retaliatory tariffs on around 14 billion dollars’ worth of U.S. goods take effect, while fresh data shows a pickup in consumer inflation in the world’s second largest economy. In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz and election frontrunner Friedrich Merz go head-to-head in the first television debate – with the health of the economy dominating the conversation. Pressure mounts on BP as activist investor Elliot Management reportedly builds up a stake in the British energy producer. In France, President Emmanuel Macron pledges more than 100 billion euros worth of investment into AI, as top tech names descend on Paris for the AI Action Summit.

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Amazon shares slip to the downside as the tech giant issues lower-than-expected guidance for the current quarter, but talks up its capex plans with spending to hit 100 billion dollars this year. Europe’s STOXX 600 closes at an all-time high, lifted by upbeat earnings as attention turns to today’s U.S. jobs report. Meanwhile, the Bank of England cuts by a quarter point, as it halves its growth forecast for the year, and flags fresh concerns over the government’s fiscal plans. French cosmetics company L’Oreal misses quarterly sales forecasts, with revenue rising at the slowest pace since the pandemic amid weakness in China and North America.

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Chip manufacturers Qualcomm and Arm both top Q4 expectations after the bell but A.I. capex concerns push shares down. The Nissan-Honda merger is reportedly in jeopardy as Nissan shareholders’ “growing differences” could now potentially lead to the $58bn deal being scrapped. Société Générale enjoys a doubling of Q4 profits helped by a rebound in its retail banking arm. The French lender’s FY revenue tops targets and is also promising a share buyback. France’s new government survives two no-confidence votes in the Assemblée Nationale which will now allow Prime Minister Francois Bayrou to pass the country’s delayed budget. And in the UK, the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter point as well as issue a potential growth forecast downgrade.   

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U.S. President Trump hosts Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House and announces potential plans to ‘take over’ Gaza and redevelop the territory. Chinese markets re-open after a week-long holiday and trim gains after Beijing’s swift retaliation against U.S. tariff increases prompts investors to cut risks. In tech news, investors prove wary of Alphabet’s A.I. $75bn investment in the sector which has exceeded forecasts. And we are live in Copenhagen where Novo Nordisk are due to report FY results amid recent signs of shareholder anxiety.  

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China retaliates against U.S. trade restrictions, slapping duties onto wide-ranging U.S. imports. President Trump agrees to suspend tariffs with Canada and Mexico for after Ottawa and Mexico City vowed to strengthen border security to stamp out illegal immigration and drug smuggling. Swiss lender UBS posts a $770m Q4 net profit beat and confirms its guidance. And there are also earnings due in from BNP Paribas, OMV and Infineon.

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