Squawk Box Europe Express

The dollar dips with futures relatively flat as a surprise poll puts Kamala Harris ahead in the Republican-leading state of Iowa. National polling still places both candidates neck-and-neck. Berkshire Hathaway continues to dial down its stakes in Apple and BofA, boosting its cash pile to $325bn. The German ruling coalition is in disarray after finance minister Christian Lindner’s economic manifesto causes major rifts with coalition partners, prompting Chancellor Olaf Scholz to summon talks late last night. Oil surges on the news that Opec+ nations agree to delay output hikes by a month. We hear from TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné who says industry margins are under pressure.  

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Apple shares dip following cautious guidance ahead of Christmas. The company also reveals little about demand for its new iPhone 16. Amazon posts a beat on quarterly earnings causing shares to pop in extended trade. The e-commerce giant’s CEO Andy Jassy pledges to significantly ramp up spending on the company’s A.I. technologies. On Wall Street the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq suffer their worst day in more than a month following disappointing Big Tech results. And in the UK, the gilt sell-off increases and sterling endures a volatile session as investors fear Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget could force inflation back up while piling up debt.

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Microsoft enjoys an A.I. boom but there are concerns over capex and a slowing cloud division which pulls the share price lower in extended trade. Meta posts a top and bottom line beat but shares also fall in after-hours trade as investors remain anxious over greater A.I. infrastructure expenditure at the social media giant. BNP Paribas notches a near-six per cent quarterly rise in net income and confirms its forecast. CFO Lars Machenil tells CNBC he remains bullish about the trend. There’s a surprise expansion in Chinese manufacturing activity in October as recent stimulus measures help to end five consecutive months of contraction. And in the UK, investors digest the first Labour budget in 15 years following one of the largest increases in taxation, spending and borrowing on record.  

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UBS posts $1.4bn in Q3 net profit as the lender accelerated the integration of former rival Credit Suisse. Standard Chartered almost doubles its quarterly pre-tax profit which prompts the London-based bank to hike guidance and pledges to lift its dividend payout. Meanwhile in the U.S., Alphabet’s cloud arm delivers stellar results which help push the company’s annual revenues up by 15 per cent in the third quarter, this despite a slowdown in its search and YouTube services. In the UK, gilt yields hit a post-election high ahead of Labour’s much anticipated first budget in 15 years.

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Novartis posts Q3 earnings with 10 per cent sales growth and 20 per cent core income growth. The drug maker has also hiked its FY guidance. HSBC sees Q3 profits jump by 10 per cent. The lender has also launched a $3bn buyback scheme on the back of slower-than-expected rate cuts. Wall Street begins the week in the green ahead of key inflation data and earnings from the tech sector. In autos news, Volkswagen is warning of unprecedented plant closures and mass lay-offs as the German giant struggles against Chinese rivals and poor demand for EVs.

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The ruling LDP in Japan loses its parliamentary majority in its worst defeat more than a decade. The yen slumps to a three-month low as a result. We hear from German finance minister Christian Lindner at the IMF annual meeting in Washington who says Europe must be prepared for a second Trump administration. Moody’s cuts its forecast for France to negative for worse-than-expected fiscal deterioration. The credit ratings agency also cast doubt over the current government’s ability to tackle wider deficits. And in the U.S., campaigning enters its final full week with both candidates targeting purple swing states. In energy news, Brent and WTI are both sharply down after IDF airstrikes avoided key Iranian oil installations. 

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Tesla shares rocket by 21.9 percent – the company’s largest one-day gain in more than a decade – as U.S. markets hope to avoid their first negative week in six. The IMF warns that the growth gap between the EU and U.S. will only widen further. We hear from ECB board member and governor of the National Bank of Belgium, Pierre Wunsch, who says he would consider a 50 basis point rate cut should data move in the wrong direction. Japanese voters head to the polls this weekend with the ruling LDP facing the prospect of a heavy defeat and the first possible loss of parliamentary majority since 2012. And in the U.S. a court blocks a merger between Coach owner Tapestry and the owner of Michael Kors, Capri Holdings.  

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Tesla share surge in extended trade after the EV maker posted a better-than-expected earnings beat in Q3. CEO Elon Musk says the company’s sales targets of 20-30 per cent are achievable next year. The U.S. Treasury yield hits a three-month high and the dollar rallies as jitters over fiscal spending and the U.S. election surface. IMF First Deputy MD Gita Gopinath tells CNBC the macro environment is beginning to stabilise. South Korean semi-conductor supplier SK Hynix notches a record quarterly profit and shrugs off fears of an A.I. supply glut. French luxury giant Kering slashes its FY operating profit outlook by half after sales at Gucci continue to slump. 

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The IMF hikes its U.S. forecast for 2024 but Germany weighs on the European outlook. The IMF’s Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets department, Tobias Adrian tells CNBC there are reasons for optimism. The S&P 500 suffers its first back-to-back session loss since September as investor attention turns to the dollar. Markets are now increasingly pricing in the outcome of a Trump victory in the U.S. election next month. Speaking to CNBC, IIF CEO Tim Adams believes the fight against inflation could be compromised as a result. French cosmetics giant L’Oréal misses Q3 sales targets as consumer demand in China wanes but the company pins its hopes on the market and on further stimulus from Beijing. Asian markets warmly welcome new listings Tokyo Metro – Japan’s largest in 6 years, while China Resources Beverages also gains on its debut in Hong Kong. And in banking news, Deutsche Bank notches a €2.3bn Q3 profit beat, thanks partly to the release of Postbank-related litigation provisions.    

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A late rally from Big Tech stocks pushes the Nasdaq to the brink of a fresh record high as earnings season begins in earnest. German computing giant SAP hikes its FY guidance following a top and bottom-line Q3 beat on the back of strong cloud revenues. Maersk raises its FY outlook for the fourth time this year. In autos news, monthly new car sales decline as demand for plug-in hybrid wanes, dropping more than 20 per cent across all major markets. Hyundai Motor India stock plunges 5 per cent as the retail sector response to the Bombay Sensex listing – the country’s largest ever IPO - is muted.  

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