Squawk Box Europe Express

Private sector jobs in the U.S. grew by almost half a million last month with the labour market showing no signs of abating. Non-farm payroll numbers are out later today. Equites and bonds see a sell-off as investors anticipate the U.S. Federal Reserve to continue its hiking cycle further into the year. The 2-year U.S. Treasury bill hits its highest level in 16 years while Europe’s Stoxx 600 plunges to its steepest one-day drop since March. U.S. Treasury Secretary is in Bejing attempting to thaw difficult trade relations between the world’s two largest economies. An emphasis on healthy competition is top of the agenda. In tech news, Samsung expects a 96 per cent fall in quarterly profit in what would be the Korean electronics giant’s worst performance since 2009. Hydrogen firm Thyssenkrupp Nucera is due to list on the Frankfurt stock exchange in what will be one of Europe’s largest IPOs this year. Nucera shares are priced at €20 providing the company with a market cap of €2.5bn.

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U.S. markets are slightly down after June’s FOMC minutes indicated that more rate hikes are on the way despite the Fed opting to pause last month. Asian equities mirror the losses Stateside. U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, is due to visit China but tensions have been ramped up as Beijing warns that export restrictions on no chip raw materials are ‘just a start’. We are live in Vienna at the Opec seminar where the CEOs of TotalEnergies and Saudi Aramco tells CNBC that the oil sector remains robust despite recent signs of faltering demand. In IPO news, ThyssenKrupp’s hydrogen arm is set to list in Frankfurt valued at €2.5bn while Romanian energy firm Hidroelectrica is to go public on the Bucharest Stock Exchange next week and will be Europe’s biggest IPO of 2023 so far. Meta’s social media platform Threads goes live, earning 5 million subscribers within its first 4 hours.  

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The Chinese post-Covid recovery continues to stutter with services activity growing at its slowest pace in five months. Meanwhile, Beijing has said it will no longer exploit its own rare material resources only to be subject to U.S. restrictions in producing semi-conductors. Tesla and BYD both post record Q2 deliveries as the EV race in China gathers momentum. We are live in Vienna for the Opec Seminar where despite Russian and Saudi Arabian production cuts to come, a price rally has failed to materialise. Brent pulls back as concerns over a Chinese slowdown and higher rates mount. And U.S. markets are back online today following yesterday’s 4th July celebrations as investors await the latest Fed minutes over its decision to pause its rate hiking cycle.  

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U.S. indices start H2 positively ahead of today’s 4th July holiday. Meanwhile the RBA’s hiking cycle pause has buoyed investor sentiment in Asia. In tech news, China imposes export controls on vital rare materials gallium and germanium which are used in semi-conductor production. The move is seen to be in retaliation against Western chip curbs on Beijing. Russian and Saudi oil cuts fail to sustain a crude rally as recession fears and the Chinese slowdown continue to hamper demand. Social media giant Meta unveils Threads to rival Twitter. The platform is set to go live on Thursday.  

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Asian markets begin H2 in the green with strong business sentiment in Japan outweighing slowing factory activity in China. U.S. equities end the first half of the year in very positive territory. The Nasdaq surges more than 30 per cent to close its best H1 in 40 years. Apple closes Friday’s session as the world’s first-ever $3tn company. In autos news, Tesla boasts of record production numbers in Q2 while deliveries are up by 83 per cent on the year with CEO Elon Musk’s move to cut prices appearing to have worked. And France suffers a sixth night of nationwide violence following the police shooting of a 17-year-old. President Emmanuel Macron has postponed a long-planned state visit to Germany in a bid to quell the unrest.  

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The Nasdaq is on track for its best H1 in 40 years with A.I. demand fuelling tech stocks. China’s post-Covid recovery, however, continues to stutter with factory activity contracting for a third consecutive month. EU leaders meet in Brussels and make pledges to shore up military and financial aid to Ukraine in the wake of last week’s attempted Wagner Group mutiny in Russia. In retail news, U.S. sportswear giant Nike reports its first quarterly miss in three years. And there are signs of a thaw in the IPO market as shares in the U.S. thrift store chain Savers Value Village jump on the Wall Street debut. Online Chinese fashion brand Shein is also reportedly eyeing a New York listing later this year. 

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The world’s top central bankers meet at the ECB annual forum in Sintra, Portugal and stand firm on further rate hikes. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says restrictive policies have not been restrictive for long enough to rein in inflation. ECB President Christine Lagarde tells CNBC that more hikes remain a prospect and that the central bank requires more time to assess its previous moves. U.S. markets are flat on the comments coming from Sintra but Apple stands out closing close to a record $3tn market cap. The main U.S. banks easily pass the Federal Reserve’s stress tests but concerns remain about the health of smaller regional lenders. In tech news, Micron beats Q3 earnings expectations on soaring A.I. demand and supply bottlenecks clearing.  

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ECB officials attending the central bank’s annual forum in Sintra have played down talk of rate cuts. We hear from ECB chief economist Philip Lane who says the bank must remain data-dependent when making rate decisions. U.S. housing and consumer data shows resilience but Chinese industrial further declines by double digits. On Wall Street, the Dow breaks a six-session losing streak to stay on track to record its best month since November. Resurgent tech stocks have pushed the Nasdaq towards its best H1 for forty years. In banking news, UBS is reportedly ready to cut Credit Suisse staff by half starting next month.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin makes his first public remarks since the abandoned coup by the PMC Wagner Group at the weekend. Chinese Premier Li Qiang addresses the ‘Summer Davos’ in Tianjin, calling form more foreign direct investment and warns against global economic fragmentation. We are live in Sintra, Portugal for the ECB’s annual summit where the Bank of Lithuania governor Gediminas Šimkus tells us the there is some way to go for the current rate-hiking cycle. In the U.S., the Dow sees its longest losing streak since September last year. Investors have profited on well performing tech stocks. The VIX hits its lowest level since before the pandemic.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power is severely tested over the weekend after the private military company Wagner Group marches on Moscow before performing an abrupt u-turn. Asian equities remain sanguine despite the tumult as the Wall Stret rally recedes. Oil, however, is slightly higher. We are live at the first ‘summer’ Davos in Tianjin since the Covid pandemic. And in Greece, Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s New Democracy party secures a landslide victory, winning enough parliamentary seats to govern outright.

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