Squawk Box Europe Express

Contagion fears ease, sending global equity markets higher while U.S. core CPI tops estimates, putting more pressure on the Fed in the wake of the SVB collapse. China reports a rebound in consumer spending while real estate investment continues to lag as Beijing's post-covid year gets off to a mixed start. Meta continues its "year of efficiency" announcing another 10,000 layoffs, cancelling thousands of open positions, and stopping low priority projects. And the UK gears up for Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's first budget - expected to unveil key pension and childcare reforms, and push ahead with a controversial rise in corporation tax - which critics say will hit the recovery.

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Japanese banks lead losses in Asian trade - as global financial stocks lose almost half a trillion dollars in market value in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank's collapse. U.S. banks post their worst day in three years as ratings agency Moody's places First Republic Bank and five other lenders on downgrade watch. Turmoil in the banking sector sparks a furious rally in U.S. government bonds with the 2-year Treasury yield seeing its biggest three-day decline since 1987. And U.S. measures to prop up the financial system drive bitcoin and other crypto assets higher, easing fears of the sector's exposure to SVB.

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U.S. regulators have promised to fully shield Silicon Valley Bank deposits in a bid to shore up the banking sector and calm contagion concerns after a second lender, Signature Bank, is shut down. U.S. futures spike on the news and Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising interest rates next week as a result. In the UK, potential bidders for SVB’s British arm are circling while Chancellor Jeremy Hunt says the government will work to minimise damage from the fallout. Saudi Aramco posts record full-year profits for 2022 of $161bn and announces it will be hiking its dividend.  

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Wall Street’s top banks suffer a $50bn market cap wipeout following Silicon Valley Bank’s $2bn loss while shedding assets to cover deposit outflows. The rout has triggered contagion fears among those holding bond portfolios and has dragged U.S. indices firmly lower. The Dow is now on track to post its worst week in almost half a year. Asian equities are also down as a result. President Joe Biden unveils his $6.8tn budget blueprint but faces strong opposition from the GOP. Biden is due to hold talks with European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen in D.C. where European concerns about the IRA impact will be top of the agenda. In Beijing, President Xi Jinping is re-confirmed as leader for a historic third term. Former Shanghai party boss Li Qiang is expected to be named Premier later this weekend. And in Japan, the BoJ keeps interest rates and yield control policies in place as Haruhiko Kuroda bids farewell as governor. 

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U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterates his message that the central bank will speed up the pace of rate hikes should it deem it necessary. The jobs market data remains stubborn but Powell insists that March’s rate decision is not yet a foregone conclusion. In China, inflation has slowed to its slowest pace since last February on weaker consumer activity while factory deflation continues to a fifth consecutive month. Kazuo Ueda is approved as the new BoJ governor by the country’s parliament as the central bank attempts to end decades of ultra-loose monetary policy. In crypto news, lender Silvergate has announced it is closing down and returning deposits. And JP Morgan is to sue its former executive and ex-Barclays CEO Jes Staley for failing to disclose his ties with deceased convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. 

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U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warns of a return to a 50bps interest rate hike this month as the jobs market and inflation show little signs of cooling. U.S. indices plunge on Powell’s Senate warning with the Dow lower year-to-date while the 2- and 10-year yield inversion reaches its steepest rate in four decades. The White House has endorsed a bill proposed by a bipartisan group of senators which would allow the Biden administration to block foreign technology applications such as China’s Tik Tok which it could pose a potential national security threat. And on International Women’s Day, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva tells CNBC that female input is vital to solving today’s global economic problems. 

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President Xi Jinping accuses the U.S. of hampering China’s development while Foreign Minister Qin Gang says the two nations could be on course for confrontation. January and February import and export data out of Beijing comes in weak as China’s exit from zero-Covid restrictions is hobbled by supply chain bottlenecks and slowdown concerns. BofA CEO Brian Moynihan and JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon are both cautious about the U.S. economic forecast ahead of this week’s Congress testimonies by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. And Down Under, the RBA increases rates by 25bps but softens its forward guidance.

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China forecasts a more modest 5 per cent growth as it opens its annual National People’s Congress. Premier Li Keqiang praised the economy’s resilience amid a challenging global environment. Chinese stocks, however, are down but the rest of Asia is in the green following last week’s positive close on Wall Street. Harris Associates offloads its remaining Credit Suisse stake citing a lack of confidence in the lender’s new strategy, accusing it of burning through capital. And in tech news, UK chip maker ARM hopes to raise $8bn to reach a valuation of $50bn after opting to list in New York rather than London.  

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Chinese services activity in February surges to its fastest pace in six months ahead of the National People’s Congress where the CCP is set to tighten control over several key institutions. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic supports a 25bps rate hike which bumps up U.S. indices while the 2-year Treasury bill to its highest level in a decade. At the G20 in New Delhi, India, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken slams Moscow’s aggression following a brief meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov. It’s the first time the two have met in person since the invasion of Ukraine. Oil is on track for weekly gains but Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser tells CNBC he is concerned about under-investment as Chinese demand returns.

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Tesla held its annual investor day but Elon Musk’s Master Plan 3 fails to deliver specific details despite a pledge to halve assembly line costs. The EV maker’s shares fell in extended trading. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hits 4 per cent for the same time since November. Equities plunge as investors struggle to accept a persistently higher rate environment. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari says he is likely to keep pushing rates higher this spring. In Europe, markets are down and bond yields climb to multi-year high as Germany warns of rising inflation. We hear from Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel who says he expects the ECB to keep hiking rates over the coming months. In the UK, however, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey says further rate hikes are not a given. And in banking news, activist investors are demanding a vote at the HSBC AGM in May as they seek to spin off the lender’s successful Asian business units.  

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