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Markets remained calm ahead of Thanksgiving, with US equities extending gains and yields continuing to decline. The 2-year Treasury yield, which reflects expectations for December Fed policy, fell to 3.45%, pricing in a 25bp rate cut with more than 80% probability. Adding to dovish sentiment, Kevin Hassett has emerged as a potential next Fed Chair. Known for his pro-deregulation stance and crypto-friendly approach, Hassett could steer the Fed toward lower rates and a lighter regulatory touch, with markets expecting 2–4 additional cuts in 2026 following the anticipated December move.

However, lower Fed rates do not guarantee lower market yields. If inflation pressures persist, yields could rise even after cuts, as seen in September 2024. So, investors are monitoring the Fed closely, balancing expectations of easier policy against potential risks to growth and inflation

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.

The AI battlefield heats up: Google storms back with Gemini 3 and TPUs, challenging Nvidia’s dominance as inference costs soar and Big Tech looks for cheaper, faster alternatives. Nvidia faces scrutiny over its latest earnings and growing inventories, while Meta’s AI investments raise questions about its business model. Alibaba surprises with strong cloud growth, and Amazon could benefit from robotics in the future.

On the macro side, soft US data keeps Fed doves in control, boosting rate cut expectations, while the US dollar weakens and EURUSD breaks out of consolidation. Across the pond, all eyes are on Rachel Reeves’ Autumn Budget and its potential impact on gilt markets and BoE decisions.

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.

Sharp mood swings are not a good sign | MarketTalk: What’s up today?

Markets are on edge as December Fed rate-cut expectations climb past 80%, and every word from the central bank now moves markets. Short-term yields are jittery, risk assets are swinging, and investors are balancing hope with caution. The backdrop is anything but simple: a softening jobs market, inflation still above target, and lingering uncertainty from tariffs. Data is slowly returning after the long government shutdown, but it only paints part of the picture — what the Fed signals could matter more than what the numbers show. Traders are hanging on every comment, weighing the odds and bracing for the next move. With year-end approaching, all eyes are on the Fed — and what it decides could set the tone for the market’s final stretch.

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.

Futures are nudging higher this morning as Fed expectations improve slightly, after one official suggested a near-term rate cut could be on the table. But it’s far from guaranteed. Nvidia’s earnings caused a stir — rising inventories and deferred payments signal possible stress, and a chain reaction in tech isn’t out of the question.

Meanwhile, Alibaba jumped 5% after Qwen 3 attracted over 10 million followers — China’s AI excitement continues. Kospi made a small recovery attempt, though gains were largely offset by heavy selling.

In the US, the 2-year yield dropped on Friday and bets on a December rate cut pushed past 50%. Still, inflation remains elevated, sentiment is low, and markets are cautious. Overall, nerves are calmer this morning, but the ball is in the middle.

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.

In just a few hours, the market swung from euphoria to outright drama. Nvidia’s stellar results gave sentiment a quick boost, but it didn’t last long — by the US open, the mood soured as questions about Nvidia’s books, AI fatigue and lingering credit concerns hit the tape. Oracle’s CDS spike, mounting chip inventories, rapidly cycling deferred revenue and a crypto sell-off all fueled a sharp risk-off move, sending the Nasdaq from +2% to deep in the red. Mixed US jobs data added to the uncertainty, while climbing Japanese yields reignited fears about repatriation of the roughly $3.4 trillion Japanese investors hold abroad. As unease grows, investors are digging deeper — and finding trouble. Bubble chatter is bubbling, volatility is building and the market is splitting between the cautious and the fearless. Strap in: this week isn’t ending quietly.

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.

Nvidia just unleashed another blockbuster quarter, blowing past revenue forecasts by roughly $2bn and lifting data-centre income well beyond the $50bn threshold. Add Jensen Huang’s remark that Blackwell demand is “off the charts” and a fresh revenue outlook of $65bn, and you have all the ingredients for a renewed surge in market confidence and a lift across tech benchmarks.

Yet the more pressing issue is whether this momentum can actually last. Away from Nvidia’s glow, the macro landscape is getting heavier. The unexpected postponement of the October jobs figures, lingering uncertainty around October CPI, shrinking odds of a Fed cut, and a fresh climb in US yields are all putting pressure on sentiment. Meanwhile, Japanese bond yields continue to spike, a move that threatens to choke off easy liquidity and revive the risk of reverse carry trades.

The tone of this market can shift in an instant — and investors sense it.

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.

Tonight’s the night, ladies and gentlemen. Nvidia — the world’s biggest company — is about to lift the curtain on earnings, and my crystal ball is humming. Will they smash that $55 billion revenue expectation and drop another 73%-gross-margin mic on the table? Probably. Will Jensen Huang appear in a leather jacket and casually remind us that China doesn’t even matter to his forecast anymore? Also likely.

But here’s the real suspense: how will markets react? While AI deals were flying a month ago fueling enthusiasm and market euphoria, today everyone’s whispering about rising debt. Not helping, fading expectations of another Fed cut and the Japanese yields rising to uncomfy levels for global investors.

So will Jensen Huang save the world? Answer – in a few hours!

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.

Markets are wobbling as slowing global growth, rising debt, and fading AI enthusiasm collide. Japan just posted its first GDP contraction in over a year, China’s property crisis refuses to fade, and European growth remains sluggish. Even Switzerland isn’t spared. Meanwhile, the bullish catalysts that powered markets all year — AI euphoria, massive government spending, and hopes of a dovish Fed — are losing steam. Japan’s huge $110bn stimulus barely moved the Nikkei, Fed cut expectations are evaporating, and AI stocks are under pressure despite big promises.

Now all eyes are on Nvidia. The chipmaker reports Q3 earnings tomorrow, and while analysts expect another blowout quarter, even stellar numbers may not be enough to revive the bulls. Nasdaq futures are sliding, oil is stuck near $60, gold has lost momentum… and Nvidia might be the last hope for a turnaround.

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.

Markets are on edge. Last week, dip-buyers pushed the S&P500 above its 50-DMA, while Nasdaq futures are hoping Nvidia will deliver results strong enough to scare the bears. Jensen Huang sounds so confident, it’s almost theatrical. Meanwhile, Fed cut expectations have softened, but Thursday’s jobs data could swing sentiment back toward dovish territory—or not.

Add in US and European data, plus corporate earnings from Nvidia, Alibaba, Baidu, and major retailers, and investors have plenty to chew on. Will bulls charge, or will caution dominate? One thing’s clear: markets are volatile and the week could be a make or break one just before the Xmas vibes kick in!

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.

Michael Burry is pulling the plug on his funds after years spent arguing that valuations had drifted far beyond reason. And his departure lands at a tense moment: tech is finally wobbling, short bets are climbing and investors are waking up to the fact that the Fed will make its December call without the full set of data. Yields look poised to climb, nerves are tightening and markets that once floated on AI-driven optimism suddenly feel like they’re bracing for something heavier.

The dollar is sliding even as expectations stay hawkish, the yen is stuck defending the 155 line, and sterling is faltering as the Autumn Budget approaches. Underneath all this is the real question:

is this the point where the cracks start to show — or exactly when the bulls decide to push even harder?

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.