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Optimism extends to a fourth session as the US government shutdown ends and AI news drives gains. AMD jumped 9% after forecasting accelerating sales growth, while Cisco beat estimates and raised guidance, highlighting AI-driven hardware and infrastructure demand. Yet, the broader question remains: when will corporate AI spending translate into end-user revenue? Is this a bubble? What about the Fed? Will it cut rates, will it not, will the data come in time for the December meeting?

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.

Markets cheered the end of the 41-day US government shutdown — not even the news that SoftBank sold its entire Nvidia stake could spoil the mood. Investors are betting that softer economic data will justify another Fed rate cut in December, keeping AI investments affordable and valuations high. In Europe, stocks hit fresh records, with luxury and Swiss names leading gains on tariff optimism. But beneath the surface, questions linger. SoftBank’s pivot toward AI users like OpenAI and ABB shows the ecosystem evolving — yet the sell-off in Nvidia, Nebius, and CoreWeave hints at fatigue. Meanwhile, Alibaba’s Singles’ Day showed how deeply AI now shapes commerce, driving better engagement but not necessarily stronger consumer sentiment. Xiaomi alone sold over $4 billion in products, yet spending caution persists – leading to an existential question: can AI truly thrive if humans don’t?

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Sentiment is everything. Last week, strong US earnings couldn’t lift stocks — even lower yields failed to spark appetite. This week, things flipped: TSMC’s slowing sales didn’t stop its shares from rising, Nvidia jumped nearly 6%, and the S& 500 rallied 1.5%. It’s not about data — it’s about mood. Investors are reading headlines through the lens of US political drama, data drought and Fed uncertainty. Even gold is acting like a meme stock, rallying 3% despite risk rally and higher yields. As the US government reopens, a flood of delayed data will test whether inflation is cooling and if the Fed will finally cut rates in December. Until then, markets are running on vibes — not numbers.

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.

Markets are finally taking a breather on hope that the US government shutdown may be nearing an end and on Jensen Huang’s request to TSMC for bigger supplies. On the backstage, SOFR tumbled last week as mountains of cash in money-market funds chase too few Treasuries. S&P and Nasdaq futures bounce and tech stars like TSMC, SK Hynix and SoftBank rebound in Asia. Meanwhile, Chinese inflation surprises, oil returns above $60, and everyone’s eyes are glued to Washington and the earnings calendar. Can risk appetite stick this time? Or will last week’s drama stage a comeback?

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.

Big Tech under pressure as Tesla’s trillion-dollar pay package shocks investors and OpenAI asks the US government for $1T guarantees — all while job cuts soar to 2003 levels. Markets are reeling as the Korean Kospi is preparing to print its worst performance since November last year and SoftBank drags the Nikkei lower. The dollar slides, oil dives below $60 and gold tries to hold the line near $4’000/oz. With the Fed, BoE and global uncertainty around AI returns weighing on sentiment and the weirdest newsflow risk appetite remains weak.

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Markets took a beating — and for familiar reasons: overstretched tech valuations, an ultra-narrow rally and the eerie déjà vu of dot-com bubble talk. Add fading Fed rate-cut hopes, patchy US data, and rising volatility, and you’ve got a recipe for nerves. But is this really the start of a 10–20% correction… or just another pause before new highs?

From Palantir’s record results triggering a selloff to Nvidia’s ever-expanding AI empire, Big Tech is once again at the heart of the storm. AMD fell after beating results and projections, but Nasdaq futures are less severely sold this morning. Meanwhile, the dollar is flexing its safe-haven muscles, gold is losing its shine and investors are watching central banks and liquidity moves closely to see of there’s anything worthy to keep the rally going.

Could the AI rally survive another shockwave — or is the market finally running out of steam?.

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.

Global markets kicked off the week on a positive note, driven by fresh AI momentum. Nvidia rallied after announcing chip sales to South Korean firms, while Amazon hit a record high on a $38bn OpenAI deal. Tech gains extended despite rising concerns over the circularity of AI partnerships. European carmakers advanced as China eased Nexperia chip export curbs, while weak US ISM data capped broader gains across the S&P500. Yields and the dollar rose as Fed rate-cut hopes faded. Analysts still see year-end strength, though high valuations, soft data and mounting investor concerns about massive AI spending hint at growing fragility beneath the AI buzz.

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Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She worked as a Senior Market Analyst in London Capital Group in London and in Shanghai. She returned to Swissquote Bank as Senior Analyst in 2020, and launched her own website ipekScope.com in 2025.