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OpenAI has signed a blockbuster deal with AMD to deploy 6 gigawatts of GPUs over multiple years, sending AMD shares soaring and highlighting the explosive growth in AI demand. Nvidia takes a small hit, underscoring the competitive dynamics in the AI chip market and the massive investment flowing into scaling AI infrastructure. Meanwhile, global political shocks are adding volatility: France’s new PM resigned after just 14 hours in office, Japan’s Takaichi faces rising inflation and record debt while willing to push for a pro-growth agenda, while the UK – who did the same and failed - braces for another ugly budget announcement. Despite these risks, equities remain resilient, while safe-haven assets such as gold, silver and Treasuries attract attention.

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Japan kicks off the week with a bang as the ruling LDP picks Sanae Takaichi, sending the Nikkei to record highs while the yen slides and Japanese bond yields surge on expectations of easier fiscal and monetary policy. Meanwhile, the US government shutdown drags on, delaying key data such as the nonfarm payrolls report, keeping markets guessing about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move. Oil prices rebound after OPEC’s output hike, while gold and Bitcoin extend their rallies as investors seek shelter from political and policy uncertainty. With the earnings season about to start and AI stocks still driving sentiment, markets could be in for another interesting week.

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Investors swung between US political drama and AI hype. Trump’s threat to fire federal employees amid a potential prolonged government shutdown sent jitters through markets, yet the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh all-time highs. OpenAI’s secondary share sale, valuing the company at ~$500bn, fueled excitement across tech, boosting Nvidia, SK Hynix, Samsung.

Markets are grappling with high valuations and FOMO, while bets on multiple Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts linger. Weak private jobs data added to dovish sentiment, but official reports remain delayed due to the shutdown – and that’s a worry for the Fed visibility. In FX, EURUSD and GBPUSD are stuck near resistance levels, while gold consolidates near all-time highs and US crude tests clears slips below $62pb amid OPEC supply expectations.

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Gloom never looked so good for markets! While the US government remains shut, investors are cheering weak jobs data and dovish Fed expectations. ADP numbers showed a surprising loss of 32,000 jobs in September, signaling a cooling labor market — yet equities hit fresh highs. Big Tech continues to lead the charge, fueled by AI excitement and new product launches.

Asian tech follows the rally, with Alibaba jumping after analysts raised price targets — a 50% discount from 2021 makes it tempting despite short-term overbought signals. Meanwhile, the dollar is under pressure, EURUSD eyes 1.18–1.20, and sterling braces for the UK Autumn Budget. Safe havens like yen, gold, and the Swiss franc are in focus, with the SNB intervening to limit franc gains.

Markets are thriving on gloom — from Fed bets to AI optimism, the paradox has never been clearer.

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The US government has officially shut down after lawmakers failed to agree on funding — and markets are already reacting. The dollar is under pressure, treasury yields are edging lower and safe haven assets including the yen, the Swiss franc and gold are in demand.

But how much do shutdowns really matter for markets? History shows the S&P 500 often shrugs them off — sometimes even gaining during the deadlock. Still, delayed economic data could complicate the picture, especially with US jobs figures in focus this week.

Meanwhile, ADP is set to release its private payrolls report, offering a crucial clue on the labour market while Friday’s official releases risk being stalled.

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Markets kicked off the week with cautious gains, brushing aside Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats and looming US government shutdown risks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hover just below record highs, while Treasury yields slip as investors seek safety. But the real worry among investors is that a shutdown could delay critical US data releases, muddying the Fed’s policy outlook and tempting traders to take profits.

Meanwhile in Asia, Chinese stocks rally on upbeat PMI data and Beijing’s $70bn growth push, with foreign investors tiptoeing back into tech giants like Alibaba. Gold surged to record highs as investors chase safe-havens, silver eyes $50, and copper jumps on supply shocks at Freeport’s Grasberg mine. Crude oil, however, struggles to break out as OPEC hints at more supply.

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The US dollar is back under pressure as investors brace for a crucial week with US jobs data and US government shutdown suspense. Gold and silver continue their rally, Chinese stocks surge with Alibaba leading the AI charge. The EURUSD is better bid into early September CPI updates expected to show a slight uptick in headline figures and oil is drilling above the $65pb but bulls are timid after OPEC hinted at more supply to come in November!

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Markets are still digesting yesterday’s blockbuster US GDP report — growth came in at 3.8%, the fastest pace in nearly two years, and far above expectations. Strong data may look like good news, but for investors it complicates the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) path: if the economy is still running hot, do we really need rate cuts this year? Yields climbed, the dollar strengthened and equities slipped from record highs as traders reassessed.

Today, all eyes are on the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge, the core PCE. A softer print could revive risk appetite and give gold some breathing space, while a hotter surprise might prolong the pause in the risk rally. We’ll also take a closer look at FX moves, sterling’s weakness ahead of the Autumn Budget, and why gold still shines despite rising yields.

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Markets hit pause as investors take profits after the recent rally, while AI news steals the spotlight. Nvidia’s $100 bn investment in OpenAI and OpenAI’s $400 bn plan for five new US data centers show where capital is flowing—but not everyone is rushing in. Micron smashed earnings expectations with AI-driven revenue and soaring cloud memory margins, yet its stock slipped 3% as some investors cashed in after a 170% rally since April.

Across the globe, Alibaba continues to climb, testing 2021 highs, as Chinese tech funds fuel momentum. But valuation gap with US peers is narrowing!

Today, all eyes are on the US GDP print, which could set the tone for bonds, stocks and the US dollar. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank held rates at 0% and UK Treasury auctions highlight fiscal worries.

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