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Markets leaned dovish after Jerome Powell’s latest speech, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair refused to commit to a rate cut at next month’s meeting. Powell highlighted the downside risks to the jobs market and the upside risks to inflation, painting a mixed picture that calls for careful adjustment. Still, bond markets reacted with lower yields and traders now price a 94% chance of an October cut.

Equities pulled back from record highs, but the underlying story hasn’t changed: the Fed is easing into a resilient economy, corporate earnings remain strong and inflation is sticky but manageable. In Europe, PMIs surprised to the upside, while UK data disappointed. Meanwhile, Alibaba surged on fresh AI investment news, gold set new records, and oil rebounded on geopolitics and inventory draws.

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Every time you think the AI rally has topped out, it finds another gear. Nvidia hit a fresh all-time high after reports it’s deepening its partnership with OpenAI to build massive new data centers — we’re talking about 10 gigawatts of capacity, the scale of ten nuclear reactors. A genius move: OpenAI needs Nvidia chips, and Nvidia is making sure it gets both the sales and the strategic tie. Elsewhere, Oracle rallied 6% on news it will secure TikTok’s US algorithm. Together, Big Tech pushed US indices to new highs, while non-tech sectors lagged. In bonds, the 2-year yield rose past 3.60%, ignoring Trump-linked economist Stephen Miran’s calls for rapid rate cuts. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies couldn’t benefit from the tech rally, US dollar remained under pressure, while gold extended gains to fresh highs!

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Markets kicked off the week on a mixed note. Last week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut gave equities a boost, but news that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may begin reducing its ETF holdings added some caution. But Wall Street shrugged it off, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting fresh record highs, while the Nikkei and European indices saw modest pressure. Nikkei is up this morning, but equities in China are down on no major clarity on US-China trade war, while massive rise in H-1B visa costs are weighing on Indian tech stocks this morning.

The US dollar is better bid, while gold and oil continue to attract inflows amid tensions in the Middle East, while uranium surged on Trump’s nuclear expansion orders on Friday. Energy, tech and AI-related stocks remain in focus as investors weigh policy, earnings and geopolitical signals.

This week brings US GDP and inflation updates, global PMIs and the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) policy decision — all closely watched for cues on the next market moves.

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US markets hit fresh all-time highs yesterday after the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones rallying, and small caps jumping 2.5%. Europe also rebounded, despite the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) holding rates steady. But while the champagne flowed in the US, Japanese equities woke up with a hangover: the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept rates unchanged but announced it will start selling ¥330bn in ETFs per year, dampening sentiment and sending the Nikkei down more than 2%. The ripple effects could hit global risk appetite, push long-term yields higher and revive reverse carry fears.

Elsewhere, the Nvidia-Intel $5bn chip deal and Huawei’s AI chip roadmap highlight a politically charged, heating chip war shaping tech markets.

Risk appetite remains intact but fragile, with geopolitical tensions, high valuations and long-maturity yields keeping investors on edge.

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The Federal Reserve (Fed) has finally pulled the trigger on rate cuts — 25bps down, with two more likely this year. But the dot plot reveals deep divisions inside the Fed for next year: some see no further moves, a few even expect hikes, while others want far steeper cuts. For now, the message is clear: the Fed is not bending to political pressure, and markets are left guessing what comes next.

Stocks wobbled, yields bounced and the dollar bounced back from the year lows, but sentiment is getting bullish as investors digest the news, and the dollar could claim a medium term bullish correction on the way Fed manages its policy and its independence.

On individual news, Nvidia took a hit after Beijing told Alibaba and ByteDance to halt orders, a move that could cost up to $1bn in annual sales.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada (BoC) followed with a cut, and all eyes are now on the Bank of England (BoE) which is faced with rising inflation in a slowing economy and narrowing budget headroom.

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US markets keep breaking records as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move takes center stage. Will Powell stick to the dovish script, or surprise with a tougher stance? Futures are already pricing multiple rate cuts this year, all eyes are on the dot plot!

Across the Atlantic, the Stoxx 600 fell yesterday on bank and insurer weakness, while sterling is supported by mixed jobs and inflation data that suggest that the Bank of England (BoE) will likely stay cautious this week, as the ECB signals it may be done cutting for now—paving the way for the EURUSD to push toward 1.20.

Meanwhile, Asia’s tech rally accelerates: Baidu soars on an AI deal, Alibaba and SMIC follow, and the Hang Seng hits a 4-year high. Nasdaq’s Golden Dragon trades at half the P/E of the Mag 7, raising the question—are Chinese tech stocks too cheap to ignore?

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Another record day for the S&P 500, fueled by strong earnings and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) looming policy easing. Last quarter, S&P 500 companies grew earnings by ~13%, yet exclude Big Tech, growth was only 3 4%. A third of the index is dominated by Big Tech, with Nvidia alone accounting for ~8%, creating an ecosystem that keeps tech-heavy indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in demand even amid economic weakness. Google jumped 4%, hitting a $3T valuation, driven by AI momentum and news it doesn’t need to divest Chrome. Nvidia held ground despite China’s antitrust headlines.

Now investors are watching the Fed: as much as four 25-bp rate cuts are expected at four next meetings, supporting risk appetite, while small and mid-cap companies, cyclicals and Asian equities are also enjoying the ride. Will the Fed follow through? Will political pressure show in the dot plot? And how will markets react?

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✨ Gold, a timeless safe haven? As markets wobble, the yellow metal holds on to its aura of security. Between tradition, stability, and new challenges (crypto, ETFs, inflation), is gold still worth betting on in 2025? 💰

🎧 In this episode of UNLOCKED, discover why gold continues to fascinate, its paradoxes, and what it can still bring to a modern portfolio. From its role with central banks to its lack of yield, explore why it remains intriguing — and what it reveals about our relationship with modern finance.

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Investing in financial products such as digital assets and CFD carries a high degree of risk.

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🎙 Guest: Ayub Khan – author (The Pagoda), founder of Presence in Motion, and Chairman of MFD Investment Holdings.

Find him on Instagram: http://swq.ch/4675qkW

have traders bracing for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) first rate cut this year on Wednesday — with expectations building for a full easing cycle ahead. The dollar stays under pressure, US 2-year yield hovers near year lows, and equities are pushing higher with the S&P 500 hitting fresh records.

Elsewhere, diverging policy paths are in focus: the European Central Bank (ECB) signals an end to easing, the Bank of England (BoE) is set to hold amid sticky inflation, while the Bank of Canada (BoC) could deliver another cut this week. Cherry on top, Fitch’s downgrade of France adds pressure on spreads and bond markets.

Meanwhile, Asia steals the spotlight. China’s weak data stokes stimulus hopes, propelling the CSI 300, Hang Seng and battery giant CATL. Korean tech champion SK Hynix fuels the KOSPI’s surge, while AI enthusiasm keeps Alibaba, BYD and Tencent near multi-year highs.

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