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Markets kicked off the week in slow motion with US and Canadian exchanges shut for Labour Day — but Alibaba’s AI-fuelled surge sent the Hang Seng higher, while in Europe, PMI data offered a glimpse of recovery despite French political risks still casting a long shadow. Gold blasted through fresh records, silver soared to levels not seen in over a decade, and oil bulls are circling key resistance once again.

All eyes now turn to euro area CPI: will inflation brush up against the ECB’s 2% target and keep policy steady, or will growth concerns spark a dovish turn? The euro’s rebound looks powerful, but crowded positioning leaves room for some correction if politics flare up.

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Chinese equities surged to fresh three-year highs while India’s Nifty 50 rebounded after Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi joined other EM leaders in Shanghai to tighten ties against US trade pressure.

In the US, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favourite inflation gauge came exactly in line with expectations — so perfect it sparked doubts over credibility. Now all eyes turn to Friday’s jobs report, the first since leadership changes at the BLS. With consensus calling for just 74K new jobs, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

In Europe, inflation data and French political uncertainties are closely watched. But despite uncertainties, the euro is better bid against a broadly weaker US dollar while European equity markets kick off the week with gains.

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Investors shrugged off Nvidia’s latest earnings report despite slower AI growth signals with shares swinging around their all-time highs. Analysts lifted price targets, keeping optimism alive. Broadly, S&P500 companies reported a strong Q2, with earnings growth near 12%, surpassing expectations, while Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-cut expectations support further equity gains.

On the data front, US Q2 GDP came in at 3.3%, real sales rose 6.8% and core inflation remained sticky at 2% keeping markets cautiously optimistic. Trade tensions continue as the US ends the de minimis exemption on low-value goods, potentially adding inflationary pressure. In Europe, August inflation data and possible US-EU car tariff reductions from 27.5% to 15% are in focus, while French political instability affects euro sentiment.

Sector-wise, energy stocks climbed on US GDP optimism and dividend-paying names may attract more capital amid looming inflation risks.

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The week started shaky for markets: French assets stumble as the PM faces a confidence vote, and the EURUSD struggles below its 50-DMA despite a pressured US dollar. In the US, tension grows between Fed Governor Lisa Cook and President Trump, fueling uncertainty over the Fed’s independence. Long-term yields continue to rise — US 30-year near 5%, UK 30-year above 5%, and European and Japanese bonds climbing — while S&P 500 earnings yield lags around 3–4%, hinting at a rotation from equities to bonds.

All eyes are on Nvidia’s Q2 results due after the bell: the AI giant makes ~8% of the S&P 500, and its earnings or the market’s reaction could move indices and set the tone for risk sentiment. Options pricing implies a 6% move in Nvidia, potentially driving a ~0.8% S&P 500 shift. With geopolitical and valuation risks high, investors may hedge via options, VIX futures, or diversification. Take your bets: the market’s next move could be big.

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Markets are on edge as Fed Governor Lisa Cook refuses to step down amid Trump’s push to replace her, sparking fears over central bank independence. US yield curve is steepening, the US dollar wavers while the S&P 500 prints record-high valuations despite stronger-than-expected quarterly results. Overseas, Japanese yields ease while inflation cools, giving the USDJPY room to clear 148 offers. In Europe, political uncertainty in France rattles the euro and CAC 40, while Denmark’s Ørsted plunges after US project delays highlight the risks for renewable energy under Trump. Safe havens like gold rebound and US crude tests $65pb offers amid stalled Ukraine talks.

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Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was surprisingly dovish. Investors lapped up his words, betting that the first Fed rate cut since last September is now only weeks away. Markets cheered: the S&P 500 brushed against record highs, small caps soared, and Asian equities followed suit. Chinese chipmakers rocketed on expectations of more stimulus and a bold pivot away from Nvidia. Meanwhile, Nvidia itself takes center stage this week with Q2 earnings that could make or break tech sentiment.

The big question is whether US GDP and PCE data will derail the Fed’s dovish tilt—or confirm a further rate relief.

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Markets are on edge ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. After a string of weak job reports and sticky inflation signals, investors are questioning whether the Fed is still on track for a September rate cut. Market-implied odds of a 25bp move have already slipped from near certainty last week to around 75% today.

Jackson Hole has a history of delivering major policy surprises — from Bernanke’s QE hints to Powell’s 2020 framework shift. Could this be the moment the Fed resets expectations again?

Powell will tell.

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