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Yesterday’s FOMC minutes spooked investors, accelerating the tech-led selloff. Officials remain worried about inflation, signaling they’d act before cutting rates, though the meeting occurred before the weak July jobs data hit. Powell’s speech tomorrow is expected to strike a balance—acknowledging labor market worries but keeping inflation top of mind. The US 2-30 year spread is widening on rate-cut concerns and rising debt costs.

Big Tech continues to weigh on equities, though TSMC futures are up 1.3% and Nvidia rebounded after dipping below $170, hinting at a potential cooling of the tech selloff. Globally, Japan’s 30-year JGB yield is testing multi-decade highs, raising the risk of reverse carry trades. PMI data show mixed signals: strong growth in India, contraction in Japan, and will probably confirm slow European activity pickup. Markets are eyeing Jackson Hole for Powell’s guidance, while oil waits for details over Ukraine.

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The AI trade may hit a reality check. Nasdaq tumbled as Big Tech names sold off sharply — Palantir plunged nearly 10%, Nvidia slid more than 3%, and other AI-linked stocks from Arm to AMD lost ground following a blunt MIT report showing 95% of companies investing in generative AI are yet to see returns, combined with OpenAI’s Sam Altman warning that valuations have become “insane.”

Intel was the surprise winner, boosted by SoftBank’s $2bn stake announcement after weeks of political drama and government intervention. But even that comes with risks, as questions swirl over whether AI investment is a boom… or a bubble about to burst.

Meanwhile, investors are piling into “disaster puts,” sending put skew to a 3-year high, just as Jerome Powell heads to Jackson Hole. Will the Fed soothe markets, or spark a deeper selloff?

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Markets are caught between peace hopes and policy uncertainty. Zelensky’s smooth reception in Washington raised optimism for a lasting truce, putting pressure on oil prices, while fresh attacks reminded traders that risks remain. Crude slipped back below $63pb, but optimism is already priced in.

In individual news, Intel made headlines, tumbling after reports that Washington could take a 10% stake via Chips Act subsidies — a move that could reshape the balance between politics and profit. Meanwhile, European stocks waver, US futures look soft, and yields edge higher into big US retailer earnings, FOMC minutes and Powell’s Jackson Hole address.

Will Powell acknowledge weakening jobs data, or double down on inflation risks? With the Fed’s next move hanging in the balance, and valuations stretched to historic highs, markets may need a fresh catalyst.

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Markets are opening the week with hope over fears. Trump’s meeting with Putin brought no new sanctions or tensions, keeping crude under pressure — but the real spotlight is on today’s summit with Zelenskyy and key European allies as Trump will relay Moscow’s demands to end the war. Will progress be made, or will disappointment bring oil bulls back? This morning, US crude rebounds from an early dip. Equities are firm, the US dollar softer, and gold in demand as investors hedge the risks. Next hours will be important for sentiment and direction.

Besides Trump, eyes will turn to Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole later this week. The questions is: will geopolitics and central banks keep markets steady — or is volatility about to return?

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Markets are betting big on Fed rate cuts — with September odds split between a 25bp trim and whispers of a jumbo 50bp move. Softer CPI data fuelled dovish bets, but today’s PPI report could throw cold water on the frenzy if tariff-led costs push prices higher. Bond yields are testing recent lows, the dollar is down for a third straight session, and Bitcoin’s at fresh records. US stocks hit new highs, with small- and mid-caps rallying on lower-rate hopes, while Nvidia slipped after CoreWeave’s bigger-than-expected loss. Abroad, the Nikkei fell on BoJ hike talk, but Japanese tech still looks appealing. Chinese equities shine with Tencent and Alibaba’s AI-driven growth powering the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China index nearly 30% higher since April. Is the market underestimating inflation risks — and could an outsized cut backfire?

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Trump extended the tariff truce with China – which was set to expire today – by 90 more days, announced that gold will finally not be tariffed, and confirmed that Nvidia and AMD will pay the US government a 15% cut of their Chinese sales. He also said that his upcoming talk with the Russian President Putin will hardly lead to a sustainable truce if Ukraine doesn’t cede territory.

As a result, Chinese chipmaker SMIC is better bid today, gold and crude oil rebound, while equities futures are timidly in the positive ahead of the all-important US CPI release due later today.

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