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The week kicked off with the news that the US and China would announce ‘substantial’ progress in trade negotiations — and the progress was indeed close to substantial. Markets rallied with joy, gold and the franc softened, the US dollar rallied, US treasuries retreated.

Gains are being given back today as European and US futures are also down — a bit of a hangover after yesterday’s party, a moment to question how good the news really is, and how long the truce might last. Recent days have brought major progress to the table, this isn’t the end. Talks could be interrupted at any point, as strategic decoupling between the US and China will continue for national security reasons — keeping pressure on key sectors, including semiconductors. The so-called de minimis exemption that allows cheap Chinese products into the US remains at 120% — meaning Shein and PDD won’t massively benefit from the tariff relief. And of course, uncertainty over what happens after the 90-day pause will keep many companies in wait-and-see mode, delaying investment decisions until a more durable truce emerges.

Today, investors are walking into the US CPI update with a lighter heart. There’s a chance that the 90-day tariff pause — along with the latest dip in consumer sentiment — could help temper inflationary pressures in the US and give the Fed more room to act, if needed. A softer-than-expected data could further fuel appetite while an unpleasantly stronger read could be taken with a pinch of salt.

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The weekend brought good news. The negotiations between American and Chinese officials this weekend in Geneva went well – apparently – as US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that ‘substantial progress was made.’ The foretaste of de-escalation is giving a boost to risk appetite this morning –although pharma stocks are under pressure on Trump’s plans to order a cut in US prescription drug costs – he doesn’t want Americans to pay more than people in countries with the lowest price...

In FX, the US dollar is slightly softer this morning – on the back of trade optimism – while the Swiss franc and gold retreat.

This week, investors will focus on the trade developments, Chinese Big Tech and Walmart results and US CPI update.

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Not only do we have a new pope this week, but we also have the first deal in Trump’s global trade war, this time between the UK and the US. Trump’s enthusiastic announcement, complete with a lot of CAPITAL LETTERS, helped inflate sentiment, making this US-UK deal feel bigger than it actually is.

Still, the news of the US-UK deal resonated positively across global financial markets and all eyes are on the first in-person meeting between US and Chinese high-level officials in Geneva tomorrow to discuss tariffs. Further de-escalation could boost equities and the US dollar further and pull gold and Swiss franc lower.

In energy, the week ends on a better note than it started. US crude is back at the $60pb level after an early-week plunge to $55 on news that OPEC would accelerate plans to restore output — for reasons that remain unclear.

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This week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting went according to plan. It was hawkish—though just about as hawkish as expected. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as widely anticipated, and signalled it's in no rush to cut them before gathering more data to assess the real impact of the tariff policy. It believes tariffs could lead to higher inflation and higher unemployment. And even though the spike in inflation is expected to be temporary, there’s a chance it could linger.

The US 2-year yield rebounded after the decision, the probability of a June cut eased to 20%, and US equities came under pressure.

But the headlines shifted quickly: news that the Trump administration would scrap the AI chip curbs engineered by Biden gave a late boost to major indices in the final half-hour of trading. Nvidia—flat for most of the session—rallied over 3% in the last 30 minutes.

And the US and the UK are expected to announce a trade deal today!

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The futures are in the positive this morning on news that the trade talks between the US and China could lead to progress, as the Chinese Premier will reportedly meet US Treasury Secretary Bessent later this week to discuss tariffs.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) freshly lowered its policy rate and reserve ratio today in an effort to strengthen its monetary support for the Chinese economy, which is seeing a slowdown in activity. As such, the CSI 300 is better bid this morning – the index is back to April 2nd levels, when Trump blew the world’s mind with his unreasonable tariff levels – while the Hang Seng jumped above its 50-DMA, though gains remained fragile and were mostly given back by the time of writing.

The US dollar is slightly positive this morning, as the selloff against Asian currencies cools. Good news from the Chinese front could bring back hopes and risk appetite. The latter would result in a recovery in the US dollar and a further rebound in equities as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is preparing to announce no change to its rates today.

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The week kicked off on a bearish note for US equities as the buying that had been driven by hopes of a turnaround in trade winds over the past nine sessions is gently losing momentum.

In FX, the US dollar remains softer across the board; its rapid selloff against Asian peers was particularly in focus over the past two sessions and raised concerns about the dollar’s status as a safe haven and reserve currency.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) starts its two-day meeting with no expected change to its policy this week, while earnings are not looing bad but forecasts are souring sentiment.

From here, the lack of good news on the trade front will likely discourage bulls from extending the latest rally. Yet, I firmly believe that optimistic investors are positioning to catch the moment when potential tariff deals pop and trigger a rebound—they just don’t want to miss the rally by coming in too late. That mindset could help limit losses if the suspense doesn’t last long and trade deals really materialize.

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The week begins with a sharp decline in oil prices – around 4% at the time of writing – as OPEC+ announced it would accelerate output restoration by 411K barrels per day. No one knows the motivation behind the move, but the impact on oil’s direction is clear: to the downside.

PS: Lower oil prices are obviously a straight positive for bringing inflation lower for the US and elsewhere, and potentially allow global central banks to tame the negative impact of the trade war on their respective economies. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to maintain rates unchanged this week, while the Bank of England (BoE) will likely announce a 25bp cut.

The US dollar kicks off the week on a negative note, as Asian currencies soar on rumours that there could be some announcement on the trade front later today.

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The S&P 500 gained for the eighth consecutive session despite a set of soft economic data and cautious earnings forecasts. The lack of escalation in the trade war over the past week and dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations certainly explain a major part of the recent gains. But optimism remains fragile, and the Fed’s ability to help depends on the trajectory of inflation.

Today, eyes are on the US official jobs data and Big Oil earnings. While soft jobs data could temporarily fuel the dovish Fed expectations and keep investor appetite in check, disappointing results from oil giants – combined to weakening oil prices – should limit gains among energy companies.

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00:23 Disclaimer

00:27 Preview

00:44 Bitcoin

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08:57 Subscribe & Good bye

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