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Yesterday was yet another ugly day of trading, especially for the US and the technology companies. The Federal Reserve (Fed) President warned that the tariffs were significantly higher than they thought, that they could soften employment and boost inflation, that inflation could stick around longer than they thought, that they don’t know how long the impacts will flow through the economy and how they will impact the long-term inflation expectations. He added that they can’t achieve long-term strong growth and employment if they don’t achieve price stability first. In simple words, Powell said inflation is their priority and that the best thing to do it to wait before cutting rates.

Across the pond, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut its rates by 25bp before the Easter break!

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The US trade negotiations between the US and the EU aren’t going well, China doesn’t even want to talk. Both US and China now deploy measures other than tariffs to fight each other as Nvidia and Boeing are left in the crossfire. China announced that they will not buy Boeing and Trump administration decided to restrict the export of Nvidia’s H20 chips to China. ASML reported weaker than expected orders in the Q1 due to tariff uncertainty and TSM is expected to announce around 56% profit growth in Q1 thanks to a 42% increase in sales but forecasts will probably matter more than the actual numbers this earnings season because of tariff uncertainties.

In summary, risks prevail. Note that the latest GDP data released in China this morning topped analyst estimates, while the S&P500’s daily chart is now flashing red with a death cross formation – where the 50-DMA crossed below the 200-DMA.

Unsurprisingly, the escalating trade tensions continue to boost appetite in gold while the US dollar and equities remain under pressure.

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Markets kicked off the week on a positive note on relief regarding the consumer electronics tariffs – that will not be exempt but will be part of a different ‘tariff bucket’ (20% instead of 145% for those made in China). Then, there was some relief for auto and part makers, as well. As such, the European stocks rallied 2.70% on partial rollback of the tariffs, the US stocks kicked off the week higher but euphoria weakened into the session end on news that the US Commerce Department launched a probe into chips and pharmaceutical imports on national security reasons.

This morning, the futures are flat with Nasdaq futures under pressure. Sentiment is fragile on bipolar announcements from the US that’s taking a toll on companies’ and investors’ ability to make decisions...

Uncertainties persist but the good news is that the pressure on the Treasuries front remains bearable – and that is one place to watch carefully to judge how dangerous volatility gets. The US dollar remains offered, however as gold trades near record highs as price projections are being lifted higher.

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The new week starts on relief that the US will exempt electronics – most of which are made in China – from headline tariffs. Futures are hinting at strong gains across the US and European indices. Hon Hai – a major Apple supplier jump opened in Asia, but is giving back gains since then as Donald Trump said Sunday that the tech sector won’t be exempt from tariffs, they will be in a different tariff bucket. Prepare for another week of hectic headlines, uncertainty and high volatility – and thinning holiday volumes into the Easter break won’t help in terms of volatility.

For now, futures hint at a positive start to the week, the 10-year yield looks more stable this morning. Gold extends gains above the $3220 on rising bets that the US treasuries are losing their safe haven status thanks to the US hectic and harmful policies. The US dollar remains under a decent selling pressure. The euro, yen and franc amass flows. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut rates this Thursday, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will probably hold steady, investors also watch results from US big banks, Netflix and TSM, inflation figures from Europe, the UK and Canada and US retail sales and business inventories — all unfolding under the shadow of escalating trade tensions.

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The red line was the sovereign bond markets. It was the flash selloff in US Treasuries over the past few days that finally made Donald Trump take a step back from his tariff strategy. Equities rebound by big chunks, treasury yields are down, the US dollar and oil recover but I wouldn’t pop the champagne just yet. We’ve already seen how the uncertainty alone has hit businesses.

Delta Airlines lowered its earnings guidance, citing global trade tensions. Amazon cancelled orders for China-sourced products to cut exposure to Chinese supply and let’s not forget: China remains a critical market for companies like Apple and Nike. So yes—some relief, but tread carefully.

Uncertainties will persist, though yesterday’s rebound rests on solid ground. We could see it extend—if Trump can just stay quiet for a few days, let the market digest the news, and watch how companies react. On the data front, the US CPI update is due today and should land with a bit less tension. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has remained relatively quiet during the selloff, simply noting that policy is “in a good place” amid growth and inflation uncertainties. Recession bets may have eased yesterday, but they’re still far higher than before Trump took office. Markets presently price in more than a 10% chance of a 50bp cut in June.

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Hopes of seeing Donald Trump roll back tariffs before they go live were dashed this morning—along with sentiment across global financial markets.

The Nikkei is down more than 2%, a Bloomberg index tracking Asian currencies fell to a record low, and European and US futures hint at another very, very ugly trading session, with losses between 2–4% at the time of writing. I won’t say much about yesterday’s rebound: moves of that magnitude – above 2–3% – aren’t sustainable unless there’s a clear resolution to the tariff problem.

China, on the other hand, is seeing limited losses across the CSI 300 companies. Despite being hit by 104% tariffs starting today, Chinese authorities said they will "fight to the end." That likely includes massive and unprecedented measures to keep the economy afloat.

Trump’s trade policies continue to weigh on the US dollar, on rising recession bets—the dumbest recession in world history, probably. The US 10-year spiked from under 4% to over 4.50% in just three sessions. The US 30-year hit 5% a few hours ago as companies are selling their liquid assets while investors simply don’t want to take the risk. There are also rumours that China may be dumping US Treasuries in retaliation. Gold is bid above the $3000 per ounce level, while US crude tests the $57pb support to the downside.

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Recession fears are rising—but does that really mean the market is doomed? Not quite. In this episode, we explore how the central banks respond to economic and financial crisis, how financial markets overcome periods of weakness and recession, and why bad news are often perceived as good news by investors.

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