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Monday was rough across global financial markets. Mood is better this morning but intraday volatility is at levels not seen since the Covid-era selloff as we’re facing an avalanche of headlines: who’s ready to negotiate, who’s not, what did Trump say, what did he mean… it’s nearly impossible to predict the next move. US Senator Elizabeth Warren called it the “dumbest trade war” in history, pointing out that this turmoil isn’t caused by a virus or a housing collapse—it’s man-made and potentially fixable by simply rolling back tariffs. For now, Trump stands his ground, while world leaders oscillate between retaliation and negotiation. Meanwhile, big investors, US bank bosses, and even Elon Musk—the First Friend—are voicing criticism. Maybe internal pressure in the US will eventually shift the course.

Of course, the magnitude of this market selloff brings the Federal Reserve (Fed) into the conversation. The central bank is trapped between a rock and a hard place: above-target inflation on one side, rising recession risks on the other.

Bond investors are confused too. Hints of a deal—or even a tariff delay—could spark a risk rebound, leading to a sharp unwinding of dovish Fed bets and renewed selloffs in bonds. BoFA’s MOVE index, which tracks bond market volatility, is surging.

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Last week marked the beginning of a historical market selloff. The selloff on Friday accelerated after China said that they would respond to the US tariffs with 34% tariff on American imports on their own. Europeans warned that ‘when elephants fight, grass trembles…’ to say that retaliation smells stronger than negotiation, right now. Equities and crude oil plunge, gold is also giving signs of exhaustion...

So if you’re wondering where does the capital flow? It flows to into the government bonds – the US, the German, the Japanese, the Australian yields are all down on the growing expectation that the financial turmoil will soon bring the central banks back to cutting rates and to purchasing bonds to ensure stability...

This week, the US will release its latest CPI update, but it won’t matter.

More interestingly, the US earnings season kicks off this week with the big banks due announce Q1 earnings. TSMC will also report its March sales on Thursday. Attention will be on companies’ forecasts regarding the tariff chaos, and how bad they see the future with heavily disrupted global supply chains.

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Yesterday saw the worst selloff since pandemic. Equities tumbled, US dollar tanked, treasury yields melted, and crude oil dived.

The tariff chaos will likely help the euro end the week above the 1.10 mark and sterling above 1.30 against the US dollar. And gains could be sustainable as nations look willing to retaliate.

More interestingly, parallels with pandemic-era supply chain disruptions become apparent as we try to analyse the potential impact of tariffs on world economy and central bank responses. Opinions for Europe are dovish but the Fed expectations diverge.

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Trump’s tariff announcement was worse than expected. The market reaction to the tariff announcement is strongly negative. The pricing in currency markets suggests rising retaliation bets to the US tariffs. The US dollar eased to the lowest level since Trump entered the White House, the lowest levels this year and the lowest levels since mid October. The tariff announcement sent Cable directly up above the 1.30 psychological mark. The EURUSD trades above the 1.09 level while the USDJPY tanked to 147.

Inside equities, the afterhours trading looked like a bunch of US companies announced disappointing earnings all at once. Apple – that’s still got great exposure to China – tanked more than 7% in the afterhours, Nike also fell by a similar amount, while Nvidia lost more than 5% and Tesla tanked more than 8%.

The futures are deeply in the red with the S&P500 futures pointing at almost 3% losses at the time of writing, while Nasdaq futures point at losses more than 3%. Europe opens down.

The next hours and days will be shaped by the world’s reaction - likely retaliation - and how much effort and money countries will deploy to fight back.

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The much-expected US tariffs will be announced in a few hours and they will take immediate effect, according to the latest news.

Yesterday’s ISM data confirmed that the US manufacturing activity slowed, new orders tanked, employment softened while the prices-paid showed a steep jump – steeper than expected by analysts. The unideal data didn’t trigger a further selloff in US equities, however. On the contrary, the S&P500 ended a jiggly session 0.38% higher, as the yields retreated – meaning that investors put more weight on the rising recession bets than they did on the rising price pressures. But appetite remains fragile and investors show increased appetite for bonds – and that despite the expectation of further rise in global debt levels.

In the FX, the US dollar is slightly better bid, the euro and sterling are pressured on tariff uncertainty. Gold continues to be the safest play in town when it comes to the tariff uncertainty.

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March is over, the pain is probably not. Global equity markets kicked off the week on a negative note ahead of the so-called Liberation Day, April 2nd, the day the Trump administration will reveal the reciprocal tariffs to the rest of the world. Based on the strategy adopted by the White House since the beginning of Trump’s second term, tomorrow’s announcement will likely by exaggerated, overdone, buzzy and nerve-wrecking to make the others fear, react and negotiate.

From here, there are many possible scenarios – obviously – but the most likely two are 1. US tariffs sound more reasonable than many fear and global indices rebound on relief until the next tantrum. Or 2. The tariffs are unreasonable – like the 200% levies that Trump threatened the European alcoholic beverage makers with – and the world is pushed into a deeper chaos. The majority of investors appear to be hedging against the second scenario: gold prices continue their journey to the north with little hesitation, the price of an ounce of gold is trading above $3140 this morning and the USDCHF resists into the 0.8850 level.

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The tariff talk remains on the headlines as the Liberation Day approaches. Risk appetite is nowhere to be found, the US dollar is weak, gold continues to extend gains into uncharted territories and oil bulls remain unreactive to the news that Trump is pissed off with Putin for unveiling plans for the next Ukrainian leadership. Equities are under pressure, the US dollar reversed an attempt to rebound from the March dip and is down for the third session on mediocre growth expectations for the US economy.

In summary, the euro is looking stronger than sterling and the dollar, while the US dollar has become the weakest link among the three.

This week, investors will continue to watch the Eurozone inflation numbers and the US jobs data. The expectations are weak. If the Liberation Day doesn’t lead to a relief rebound in the US dollar, the euro could make an attempt above the 1.10 mark against the dollar, and Cable could break the back of the 1.30 offers.

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Sentiment remains sour due to intensifying tariff talk. Of course, the global ramifications are immense and the selloff is intense. And April 2nd – aka the Liberation Day – when the US is expected to announce its reciprocal tariffs is the next event to watch. It’s hard to be optimistic when we know that retaliation will emerge and uncertainties will continue with possible retaliation.

Retaliation and the extent of retaliation will determine the next direction of the US dollar and equities. For now, bearish sentiment rules both across the global financial markets

And it is in this difficult market setup that CoreWeave, the Nvidia-backed cloud computing specialized in AI, will start trading today on the Nasdaq stock exchange. The timing of the IPO is clearly not ideal as the AI-related stocks have experienced a significant pullback in their valuations and CoreWeave had to lower its IPO ambitions yesterday and pulled its expected valuation lower due to a weaker-than-expected reception during its roadshow. The way investors will welcome the company will tell a lot about whether they are still focused on impressive growth potential of AI enablers, or they are more concerned about slowing growth to avoid oversupply.

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Sentiment soured for both US, European and Asian markets. The US tech stocks were particularly hit – without a new catalyser. Investors continued to step out on tariff worries, and the worries got worse when Trump announced that he would impose 25% tariffs on auto imports... both finished cars and auto parts.

The bearish sentiment across the US equities is now expanding into the European equities. The massive government spending being already priced in, European equity investors are faced with the ugly truth of the hectic tariff policies

Gold remains the most reliable hedge against the Trump tariffs.

The tariff talk’s impact on the US dollar has been surprisingly negative so far, but the dollar’s direction will likely depend on how the countries will respond to the US tariffs. If there is no retaliation, the US dollar could rebound on relief that the impact of the tariffs on American exports – hence the American growth - would be contained, while retaliation from the US’ biggest trading partners would further hammer the US growth prospects and weigh on the dollar.

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