🇬🇧 Stay ahead of the markets with Swissquote

In this podcast, we explore how Swissquote’s AI-powered sentiment analysis tool is transforming decision-making for traders and investors.

At Swissquote, we believe that technology should empower investors with smarter, data-driven insights to navigate markets with confidence.

00:23 Preview

00:43 Bitcoin

03:51 Ethereum

04:31 Solana

06:05 Charts

08:22 Subscribe & Good bye

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Nvidia yesterday revealed new products at the company’s annual GPI Technology Conference at San Jose but couldn’t reverse investors’ souring mood.

Of course, it was not about Nvidia or the AI conviction, it was about the overall market mood that’s been souring due to a number of reasons including the tariff war, the high tech valuations, the rotation trade, the uncertain Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook and the ugly geopolitics. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its latest decision, economic projections and the dot plot.

Across the Atlantic Ocean, the Germans agreed to pass a bill that will allow the government to increase its spending without being laid back by the strict borrowing rules. Stoxx gained, the euro appreciated while the bunds weren’t further sold.

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US equities recovered for the second session on Monday, after a 10% selloff brought the S&P500 to the limit of the correction zone last Thursday. But optimism looks vulnerable as the OECD lowered its growth forecasts on Monday, pointing at tariffs, the global trade restrictions and uncertainties as the main cause of slower global growth, and warned of higher inflation.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) begins its two-day policy meeting today with soft but not collapsing employment and sales data, softer-than-expected but still near 3% inflation, and a high level of uncertainty and tariff-led volatility in its hands. The Fed is expected to maintain its rates unchanged. The dot plot and Powell’s press conference will be closely watched by investors.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is also expected to maintain its rates unchanged when it announces its decision tomorrow.

Although the rising borrowing costs and the stronger yen weigh on the Japanese stock valuations, Warren Buffett increased his stake in 5 of Japan’s leading names: Marubeni, Mitsui, Mitsubishi, Sumitomo and Itochu.

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A set of Chinese data released earlier today looked better-than-expected; the fixed asset investment unexpectedly accelerated in February, growth in industrial production slowed less than expected – a slowdown due to the Chinese new year break, while growth in retail sales accelerated to 4%, more than expected. The unemployment rate rose, however, and the worries regarding the property crisis and the shrinking population remain on the back of investors’ mind despite the AI-led boost in Chinese equities this year. To address the issues while the momentum is in favour, the Chinese authorities pledged to provide more support to stabilize stock and property markets, support wages and more importantly do something to boost the shrinking birth rates.

On Friday, Friedrich Merz reportedly reached an agreement with the Greens to unlock a EUR 500bn debt-financed spending bill on infrastructure and defence. The latter pushes the German yields higher, obviously, with the 10-year bund yield testing the 2023 peak. The euro and stocks continue to see support on the expectation that the extra spending will boost growth and even productivity in Europe, while the S&P500 is weakened following a four-straight-week and a 10% selloff. Friday’s session looked better for the US equities, as the oversold conditions attracted dipbuyers and the US politicians agreed to avert a government shutdown. But consumer sentiment tanked to the lowest levels in the US since November 2022 while the long-term inflation expectations spiked to the highest levels since 1993 – that’s the worst possible combination for market sentiment.

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Yesterday brought yet another escalation in the trade war. This time, Trump was reportedly totally annoyed that the Europeans responded to his 25% steel and aluminium tariffs rather than backing down and slapped 200% tariffs on champagne, wine, and other alcoholic beverages from France and the EU. The stock selloff continued on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean: the S&P500 stepped in the correction territory, while the Stoxx 600 saw support near the 50-DMA.

On the data front, the softer-than—expected US inflation numbers were taken with a pinch of salt. That is because investors are more focused on rising inflation expectations driven by tariffs than on actual inflation data, as expectations tend to be self-fulfilling. Today’s Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations update could trigger a stronger market reaction than the CPI and PPI prints.

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00:20 Preview

00:35 Market developments

01:38 Bitcoin

03:22 Ethereum

04:35 Charts

06:26 Expectations

07:27 Subscribe & Good bye

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The tariff hell broke lose yesterday after the US imposed 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports triggering a swift response from the EU and Canada. The EU announced tariffs on around EUR 26bn worth of American goods, while Canadians slapped tariffs on CAD 30bn worth of US products. Voila, happy Thursday. Let’s see who blinks first.

Happily though, the US inflation ease more than expected in February on both monthly and annual basis. The latter somehow improved mood across risk assets, but enthusiasm is vulnerable in the fact of worsening global trade headlines that weigh on the US dollar, back gains in European and UK markets and amplifies the rotation trade. This being said, the tariffs on metals could leave the FTSE on the backfoot compared to the European peers, as the relative growth expectations between the EU and the UK favour the first, unless the UK inks a trade agreement with the US.

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American and Canadian officials have spent the last few hours imposing tariffs on each other—only to roll them back —adding to the absurdity of the tariff situation. The problem is that this tariff charade has real-time consequences and that’s weighing on investor sentiment and pressuring market valuations.

Market volatility is rising as visibility becomes cloudier by the day, any market rebound may not be viable unless there is a form of stability in the White House – but that doesn’t seem to be on the menu du jour.

The US will update its inflation numbers today and tomorrow, and the data is important. A set of inflation numbers in line with expectations, or ideally softer-than-expected, won’t guarantee that inflation will remain under control but will give a bigger margin to the Federal Reserve (Fed) to act if necessary. A set of inflation numbers above expectations, on the other hand, would be the sour cherry on top of an already staling cake.

Across the Atlantic, yesterday saw the selloff in the Stoxx 600 index accelerate. The initial sugar high due to massive spending plans is now replaced by negotiations across the political spectrum as the parties involved are trying to get a bigger part of the cake for themselves... But in fine, security comes first.

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It’s both nothing and everything at the same time that sent the markets to a dark hole on Monday. The stock markets across the globe were heavily hit by the fears that Trump trade and international policies would have a terrible economic and geopolitical fallout in the US and beyond its borders. The recession bets are rising by the day, the companies are giving murkier forecasts due to tariffs, the US’ biggest trading partners respond. The post-election gains in US equities are wiped out, money is flowing into Europe, the Us bonds are in demand, European bonds are sold, the US dollar extends losses against major peers on softening Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations versus a more hawkish setup for the other central bank policies.

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