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US inflation came in parallel to expectations, confirming that headline inflation in the US stagnated near 0.3% level for a third month, the yearly figure rebounded from 2.4% to 2.6% as expected, while core inflation remained stuck at 3.3%. The short-end of the US yield curve eased on expectation of further Federal Reserve (Fed) cut in December, but the long-end is pushing higher on bets that inflation won’t ease to 2% if the Fed cuts defying the inflationary Trump policies.

The US dollar pushes higher, the US dollar is now in or near the overbought territory against most majors. Big caps consolidate, small caps come under pressure, while the European indices don’t take advantage of weaker euro.

In energy, oil made a short attempt to the upside yesterday on a surprise decline in US oil inventories last week, but gains remain limited. Numerous failures to clear the $72.85pb Fibonacci resistance keeps the market in the hands of the bears, with the ambition to pish the price of a barrel to $65pb target.

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00:35 Bitcoin

06:52 Ethereum

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The US yields pushed higher and the dollar rally gained further momentum yesterday, as investors continued to surf on the idea that Donald Trump’s pro-growth policies and tariffs would boost inflation in the US and limit the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) capacity to ease the monetary policy as much as previously anticipated. All eyes are on the US inflation data, today. October figures won’t tell much about the Trump effect on consumer prices, but the higher the numbers, the lower the December cut expectations. And the latter is supportive of the US dollar.

In energy, the barrel of US crude is testing the $68pb offers to the downside on sluggish Chinese, global demand, ample supply from non-OPEC countries, and the absence of fresh tensions from the Middle East. Add to that the fact that OPEC cut its oil demand forecast for fourth consecutive month this week, and you have a comfortably bearish picture in crude oil.

Sentiment is mixed for oil stocks, however, which feel the comfort of oil-friendly Trump taking over the reins of the country.

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Bitcoin added another 10% yesterday and came just shy of the $90K per coin, while Ethereum flirted with the $3400 mark. Tesla surged another 10%.

In the traditional currencies, the US dollar index is pushing higher along with the US yields on expectation that Trump’s pro-growth policies and tariffs would lead to higher inflation and softer-than-otherwise policy easing from the Federal Reserve. That’s in contrast with the worsening economic and political outlook for the Eurozone, with Germany preparing for a snap election on government’s inability to tackle the financial difficulties and revive growth. The euro tanked to 1.0628 against the US dollar, and to 0.8260 against the pound yesterday.

In Japan, the likelihood of further policy normalization is melting by the day as one of the new PM Ishiba’s closest allies, Economic Revitalization Minister Akazawa, attended the BoJ meeting for the first time and he said that it’s important for the BoJ to continue monetary easing to ensure a complete end of deflation.

In energy, the barrel of US crude kicked off the week on a negative note, while the Aussie and Loonie are bearing the brunt of strong dollar and sluggish China.

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Last week ended on a very positive note for the US equity markets. All major indices rallied, the S&P500 notched its best week in more than a year and toped the 6000 level for the first time in history. During the weekend, the Trump optimism continued to show in Bitcoin prices. The price of a coin spiked past the $81’000 level, and the next natural target on the grill is the $100’000 psychological level.

Elsewhere, worries mount: FTSE 100 and the European Stoxx 600 index both closed last week below the 200-DMA on worries about a heated international trade environment and the Chinese leg of the story is much less dreamy, too. Big banks are back to cutting their growth forecasts for China.

Crude oil and iron ore are under a renewed pressure since Friday.

Inside FX, the euro and sterling are giving back field against a broadly stronger US dollar. But the Bank of England’s (BoE) less dovish stance after the UK budget is countered by a broad-based dollar strength, combined with more dovish European Central Bank (ECB) expectations due to Trump threat drives the EURGBP lower.

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The Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered the second rate cut of the year yesterday. Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed doesn’t rule ‘out or in’ a rate cut in December, that the US economy is expanding solidly, that conditions in the labour market eased but the unemployment rate remains low, that inflation ‘made progress’ but not a ‘further progress’ – just progress – toward the committee’s 2% objective but remains elevated’, that the Trump policies won’t have an immediate impact on the US fundamentals as they don’t know how much time it will take the new Trump administration to implement them, and that he wouldn’t step down if Trump asked him to do so.

But the Fed has no choice but to dance to Trump’s tune, whether it likes it or not. That reality comes with the risk of higher-than-otherwise inflation and deserves careful attention.

For now, the probability of another 25bp cut in December is given 71% in the immediate aftermath of the US election and the Fed cut. US yields and the dollar took a breather after the recent rally, and US equities renewed record.

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The 2024 US election delivered a decisive victory for Donald Trump, with Republicans positioned to gain control of both houses of Congress.

US equities gained, led by banks, energy stocks and small caps, Bitcoin and US dollar strengthened, gold and Swiss franc fell, along with a decline in metals and international equities, and major & EM currencies.

While the US election clarity is cheered by some pockets of the market, there are rising uncertainties regarding how the anticipated pro-US growth policies and Trumpflation will resonate in the rest of the world, and at the Fed.

In this new context (as says Emmanuel Macron), the Bank of England (BoE) has the hard task to deliver its first policy decision post-Trump. The BoE is expected to cut rates by 25bp today. The markets price in two more rate cuts by the end of next year, and gives a 35% chance for a third one. But the UK budget and the Trump win could complicate the plans.

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00:31 Bitcoin & the US election

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We’re on the cusp of the US election results. They’re starting to trickle in, pointing toward a more favourable outcome for the Republicans and Donald Trump. As a result, the so-called ‘Trump trade’ is in full swing this morning.

The US yields are pushing higher, Bitcoin hits record, the US dollar is stronger against most currencies (even against gold and Swiss franc), and US equity futures advance while the European investors don’t smile.

In earnings, Palantir hit record high on strong earnings and forecast on AI demand, semiconductors surfed on the news, while Saudi Aramco’s weak earnings get the OPEC-encouraged bulls to scratch their heads regarding Saudi’s future commitment to production cuts. That, along with Trump lead is weighing on oil prices this morning.

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The week started on a cautious note in Europe and the US as today’s US presidential election looks very close to call and could eventually result in a tight – and even a contested outcome. As such, the major risk today is not a Harris or a Trump win, but it’s the reality that a Harris win could be heavily contested by Mr, Trump and lead to violence and chaos, and more uncertainty than necessary and hit sentiment.

But apart from that, the fact that Trump and Harris have different economic and political agendas, different priorities and the fact that there are sectors that could see a better lift under one or the other presidency may not change the overall performance of the long-term stock market, and not even the concerned sectors...

Did you know that clean energy outperformed traditional energies by 43% under Trump’s presidency? And, wait, traditional energies outpaced clean energies by 53% per year under the Biden presidency.

And zooming out, a quick glance to the S&P500’s performance a year following a US election has always been positive since 1984, no matter if the US was led by a Republican or a Democrat, except in 2000’s tech bubble.

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