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It’s yet another day of stimulus announcements in China, and another round of letdowns for investors. Chinese authorities today announced to almost double the amount it deployed to support what’s called ‘white list’ projects but investor appetite barely improved. Copper, iron ore futures are down and US crude is under pressure.

Elsewhere, the US dollar extends gains across most majors. Softer-than-expected British and Canadian figures weigh on sterling and Loonie, while the EURUSD sank below the 200-DMA ahead of today’s European Central Bank (ECB) decision and Lagarde’s post-decision presser.

In equities, Morgan Stanley announced better-than-expected results as its peers and TSM earnings beat estimates hinting that Nvidia may have had another very good quarter.

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Europe’s biggest company revealed its results a day earlier – by accident – and the results were not good at all. ASML booked about half of the orders pencilled in by analysts last quarter as demand outside AI continued to struggle.

Then, the US announced yesterday that it will restrict the advanced chip exports from Nvidia to AMD to countries that do have connections to Gulf countries, for national security reasons. The shares dipped.

Elsewhere, crude oil sold off heavily for the second session on relief that Israel is planning to hit Iran’s military rather than its energy structure. The barrel of US crude tipped a toe below the $70pb level. The US dollar consolidated gains, the EURUSD extended losses, while Cable sold off below the 1.30 on the back of softer-than-expected inflation report.

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The S&P500 hit its 46th record high of the year on Monday, Nvidia erased all the summer weakness and flirted with ATH levels as well after the company CEO Jensen Huang said that the next generation Blackwell chip – which suffered some delay – is now ‘in full production’ and that the demand for it ‘is insane’. Around 6% of the S&P500 companies revealed their earnings and nearly 80% reported a positive EPS surprise according to FactSet. And positive vibes could continue as we dive deeper into the earnings season. If nothing, analysts cut their earnings expectations for the Q3 gradually to around 4% growth, whereas this expectation was near 8% in summer. Yet the companies themselves have a guidance for about 16% growth in earnings.

Today, Goldman, Bank of America and Citigroup will go to the earnings confessional, tomorrow Morgan Stanley, again tomorrow ASML, then on Thursday we will focus on TSM and Netflix results. Voila. Fasten your seat belt.

In FX and commodities, the US dollar extends gains on softening dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and oil is down on fading China optimism, OPEC’s lower demand growth forecast and Netanyahu’s willingness to target Iran’s military rather than its oil facilities.

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China said there will be a significant bond issuance to help reverse the deepening property crisis and local governments, but didn’t put numbers on their plans. Israel didn’t attack Iran but some reports hinted that the Israeli army could be narrowing their targets on military and energy infrastructure. As such, crude oil kicked off the week downbeat. The barrel of US crude is trading below the $75pb mark in the early ours of Monday trading, Chinese stocks are mixed, the Aussie is under pressure.

In the US, Friday’s US producer price data was mixed, and the bank earnings were better-than-expected. The US dollar extended gains, and the S&P500 hit a fresh record.

More earnings from big banks and Big Tech are due this week, along with a 25bp cut from the European Central Bank (ECB) that will accompany the latest Eurozone and UK CPI figures.

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Oops. Inflation in the US came in hotter-than-expected in September and weighed on the mood at the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves’ camp. The US yields and the dollar strengthened, major US indices whipsawed, but the reaction was mixed and the markets traded up and down in disbelief that the Fed may have been wrong in cutting rates by 50bp last month. Due today, the PPI data could confirm that the last mile to bring inflation down to 2% won’t be a walk in the park.

Either way, the bank earnings will steal a part of the investor attention to the earnings season today. JP Morgan and Wells Fargo will open the dance, Citi, Morgan Stanley, Goldman and Bank of America will report next week and provide some insights regarding the overall health of the economy.

In energy, crude oil lower this morning but oil bulls could have a say into the weekend as China will unveil more details about its fiscal stimulus plans on Saturday and tensions in the Middle East remain on the headlines.

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The S&P500 hit its 44th record this year on Wednesday and the US dollar index pushed into the medium-term bullish consolidation zone. The Chinese CSI 300 rebounded on details about liquidity tools designed to facilitate institutional share purchases and on hope that the Saturday briefing from the government would give investors what they want: SOLID FISCAL STIMULUS.

Market sentiment isn’t bad; copper, iron ore and US crude are better bid today.

Today will bring the latest CPI update to investors’ attention. The Federal Reserve (Fed) members may have shifted their focus from inflation to jobs. But stickiness in US core inflation could get the market question the Fed’s relaxed stance regarding its dovish ambitions!

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Chinese authorities think that the country could achieve its 5% growth target with the stimulus measures that have already been announced, but investors not much so. Chinese stocks are further sold off, while bleeding in energy and commodities slow down.

Elsewhere, the major US indices move independently from the Chinese news, the US dollar is flat into today’s FOMC minutes and tomorrow’s CPI update. The EURUSD is also waiting impatiently near a major Fibonacci level before taking a fresh direction. Either the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut bets will ease and the US dollar will further rebound and step into the medium-term bullish consolidation zone, or the dollar will remain in the bearish trend building since summer and leave other currencies with vulnerable gains.

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The week started on an ugly note except for those who have a long exposure to energy related assets. The crumbling dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations at the wake of a blowout jobs report from the US, the lack of further stimulus measures from China and the mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East give investors a hard time at the start of this week.

US yields and the US dollar are up, major counterparts are down, oil swings between gains and losses, copper and iron ore futures are heavily sold. The VIX index is rising

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