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Support from the world’s major central banks, and the dovish expectations continue to rise this week. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced more stimulus measures, the Federal Reserve (Fed) members hinted at more – and maybe big – rate cuts while the soft set of PMI data in the euro area boosted the European Central Bank (ECB) doves as well.

There is one central bank that stands out in the middle of a jungle of doves and that’s the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA kept its policy rate unchanged for the 7th consecutive meeting today and its Governor said that they don’t care about what the other central banks do, that they are focused on their domestic economy, that the board wants to see inflation come firmly back to 2-3% range and that they were not expecting to cut rates in the near future. Voila, that’s pretty clear.

The Aussie hit the highest level this year against the greenback on the back of the clear divergence between the RBA and the others, and supportive factors are gathering for a further Aussie strength against both the USD, EUR and the JPY.

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Risk is on, sentiment is great since the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced the end of policy tightening with a 50bp cut. This week, the US will reveal the latest PMI figures, the third estimate of its Q2 GDP growth and the core PCE index – also expected to give the market bulls enough room to extend the risk rally. The Eurozone CPI updates could revive the European Central Bank (ECB) doves. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to stay pat, but the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is also seen cutting its rates.

As such, oil and energy could eventually see the benefits of the reflation trade, as well. And there is an interesting intersection between Big Tech and its AI projects and energy markets, and that’s nuclear.

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The Fed began easing its monetary policy with a big, fat 50bp cut. The markets first didn’t know what to make out of the decision, but the bulls are back in joy since yesterday: the S&P500 and Dow Jones trade at record high, the dollar is under pressure.

Fed’s optimism that inflation will deal with itself is cool, but it’s a view that the Bank of England (BoE) policymakers didn’t share yesterday when they almost all voted to skip an interest rate cut in the UK this month – despite softening inflation in the UK as well.

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Today, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely end the most aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle of its modern history. It is expected to start cutting its interest rates, update its economic projections and reveal its latest dot plot.

While a rate cut is fully priced in, investors can’t agree on whether the Fed should cut by 25 or 50bp? There is roughly 50-50 chance asses to one scenario or the other.

Today’s episode is a pure Fed-overdose.

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Either the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves are going seriously ahead of themselves, or there will be a big disappointment when the Fed will announce its policy decision tomorrow. Or... the Fed will align with the market and give investors want they want, to avoid creating further panic. The expectation of a 50bp is now assessed nearly 70% chance. US yields and the dollar are softening, the equities are holding on to their gains, precious metals see demand and US crude jumps above $70pb.

In individual news, Intel jumped more than 6% yesterday on news that it sealed a deal with Amazon’s AWS. According to the news, the companies will co-invest in a custom semiconductor for AI computing. Intel also confirmed that it will well separate its foundry business from the rest, to unlock its external foundry potential by giving its customers a better image of independence of its foundry unit. The news pleased investors, for once. A growing number of companies are exploring the potential of developing their own custom chips, a vision that Intel’s independent foundry services could help bring to life.

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We are heading into a busy week with major central bank decisions. The Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce their latest policy verdicts this week. The Brits and the Japanese are expected to remain seated on their hands and the Fed will certainly lower its rates this week. But by how much – is the million-dollar question!

Wagers for a 50bp cut are rising into Wednesday’s decision, the US yields ands the dollar are under pressure, gold advances through uncharted territory but oil investors are hard to cheer up. The weak Chinese data continues to support the sellers’ hand and keeps the barrel of US crude offered below the $70pb level.

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The European Central Bank (ECB) yesterday lowered its deposit facility rate by 25bp for the second time this year. But ECB Chief Christine Lagarde kept a poker face for what’s next and said that there is no commitment to a particular rate path. And mixed updates to forecasts didn’t help much either. The European officials revised their growth projections lower for the next two years and kept their inflation forecasts unchanged, but they increased their core inflation forecast for this year and the next. It was like tightening the belt on one side but loosening it on the other.

The euro gained, the yields rebounded and equities were lifted higher. Investors also tried to weigh in the 400-page proposal from Mario Draghi to revive the EU’s dormant economy.

In the US, the PPI came in higher-than-expected on a monthly basis, but lower-than-expected on a yearly basis. The US 2-year yield remains under a decent pressure, the US dollar remains sold across the board, and equities continue to recover.

Gold rallied to a fresh ATH on falling yields and softening US dollar, while crude oil tested the $70pb resistance despite unsupportive news from the IEA.

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The latest US CPI data, and the reaction to data was mixed on Wednesday. The good news is that the headline inflation fell from 2.9% to 2.5% in August, and sank significantly below the 3% level where it was resisting since last summer. But core inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – came in line with the expectations on a yearly basis, and slightly higher-than-expected on a monthly basis – and marked the end of the 25 or 50bp cut for next week’s FOMC meeting. It will likely be a 25bp cut, ladies and gents...

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) will meet and most likely deliver its second 25bp cut later today. A 25bp cut is fully baked in the market prices, but there is room to act on what comes next. The decision will either keep the EURUSD afloat above 1.10 or send the pair below this psychological level.

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The barrel of US crude tumbled almost 4% to nearly $65pb level, as Brent crude slipped below the $70pb mark after OPEC – which is normally optimistic - lowered its demand forecast for the second time in two months.

Elsewhere, the debate between Trump and Harris went quite well for Harris, which saw her victory odds climbed to 55, and the latter sent Bitcoin 2.50% lower. Banks sold off on gloomy outlook from big bank CEOs and Big Tech barely reacted to European fines to Apple and Google.

Today, all eyes are on the US CPI data. A sufficiently soft set of inflation figures should revive the discussion about the size of the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) cuts.

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