Stock Talking

Jeffrey Kamys returns to discuss Q1 earnings, with updates on DKNG, PENN, MGM, BALY and more. We dive into Bally's potential tender offer after rejecting Standard Chartered's $38 per share and the company's transition to being more software-oriented after acquiring Gamesys. Jeffrey overviews opportunities in sports gambling content provider Gambling.com (GAMB) and Australian gambling conglomerate Tabcorp, including a potential divestiture of its lottery business in the near-term. Jeffrey walks through whether we could see sports betting becoming legal in California by Q1 2023.

Check out the IBET ETF here https://www.inherentwealthfund.com/etf/ibet and Jeffrey's website here https://www.jeffreykamys.com

My guest today is Jeffrey Kamys, Chief Investment and Portfolio Manager at Baseline Investments and Inherent Wealth Fund, where he manages the iBET Sports Betting & Gaming ETF (IBET). Jeffrey walks through the current landscape in sports betting in the US today and what the path to legalization looks like. I get Jeffrey's takes on disparities in valuations in sports gambling, including discounts in European companies (FLTR), brick and mortar casinos (BYD) and gaming picks-and-shovels names (ex. SGMS, EVO). Jeffrey discusses how customer acquisition costs and strategies to acquire growth are changing, and why sports gambling as a whole can grow at a 15-20% CAGR with operating leverage on top of that. I get Jeffrey's thoughts on companies who haven't traditionally played in sports betting and entertainment who will be heavily involved in the years to come, including AMZN, AAPL and DIS. This conversation really got me thinking on how strong the tailwinds might be for companies that benefit from legalization and growing interest in betting on sports.

I highly recommend checking out IBET if you're interested in gaining exposure to the space with an active manager and following Jeffrey's coverage:

- IBET ETF - https://www.inherentwealthfund.com/

- Jeffrey's podcast, blog and more - https://www.jeffreykamys.com/

My guest today is J Mintzmyer, Head of Research at Value Investor's Edge and my favorite follow on all things shipping. J discusses where he thinks we are in the shipping cycle and how he gauges risk / reward based on company-specific and industry-specific factors. J uses this risk / reward framework to talk through International Seaways (INSF), Scorpio Tankers (STNG), Danaos (DAC) and more. I get J's thoughts on opportunities in container leasing and why he thinks Textainer (TGH) has higher upside than Triton (TRTN). We close by discussing one of J's newer positions - Diamondback Energy (FANG) - and how the company is approaching capital allocation. I thought this was an awesome conversation and came away excited to do more research on shipping.

I highly recommend following J on Twitter and subscribing to Value Investor's Edge:

- J's Twitter - https://twitter.com/mintzmyer

- Value Investor's Edge - mintzmyer.com

My guest today is Twebs (https://twitter.com/twebs). Twebs writes The Asymmetry Infantry (https://twebs.substack.com/) and is host of Single Stock Spaces (RSS feed: https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/487271/private/05bd0330-8d56-4df0-8ad3-9051293c432a.rss). He spent 15+ years on the buy side and chats with me on lessons learned there, specifically on what good research looks like. We discuss Twebs' Double Dog Index (https://twebs.substack.com/p/introducing-the-double-dog-index) and important differences around capital allocation among the names ( $X v. $STLC v. $ARCH ). Twebs gives an update on $AMPY and how the risk/reward has improved since October (check out his original overview of Amplify here https://twebs.substack.com/p/ampy). We close out talking about a formative investing experience that shows the value of identifying opportunities with non-economic sellers, limited downside and high upside.

Nick Widmer discusses how NFTs will figure greatly into our relationship with products and services. We talk about LinksDAO and other projects where NFTs could represent value beyond the aesthetic and unlock physical goods and services in the future. Nick discusses why the current ecosystem is the way it is, including the incentives of influencers, advertisers and exchanges, and how that ecosystem could change in the future.

I highly recommend subscribing to Nick's Substack (https://nickwidmer.substack.com/) and LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholaswidmer/) for more great takes on this subject.

The Impervious is back to talk all things 2022 outlook! We exchange takes on inflation, growth v. value, uranium, SPACs, Chinese stocks, US cannabis and more.

Diligent Dollar (https://diligent-dollar.com/) and I discuss his Value Trap Coffee Can Portfolio (VTCCP). We discuss the five names currently in VTCCP ($STRT, $ALSN, $AXL, $ANF and $CATO) and why opportunities exist specifically in auto suppliers and retail. Diligent also pitches Bath and Bodyworks ($BBWI) and the potential for the stock to be a compounder with strong organic growth and buybacks. We close out with some updates on Triton ($TRTN), 180 Degree Capital Corp. ($TURN) and National CineMedia ($NCMI).

"If we talk in two years, I'll be shocked if Nike isn't issuing NFTs."

- Nick Widmer

Nick Widmer (https://nickwidmer.substack.com/, https://twitter.com/nfwidmer) returns to the show to talk about non-fungible tokens, Web3 and the next generation of brand building. Nick explains to me why NFTs are a logical vehicle for companies to use to build their brands. I walked away from this conversation with a much better understanding of NFT originators and buyers. Nick has a fascinating perspective and background; I highly recommend this episode!

Show notes links:

- Nick's article on NFTs (subscribe to his Substack - it's excellent) - https://nickwidmer.substack.com/p/nftsareworthunderstanding

-Jack Butcher's Twitter thread on getting started with understanding Web3 and NFTs https://twitter.com/jackbutcher/status/1435299942235615236

- Not Boring (Packy McCormick) newsletter - https://www.notboring.co/

I explain why I think the stock market puck is going to the movie theater industry and how turbo poker tournaments are my mental model for market cycles. I review Cinemark's 2021 quarterly earnings call and why CEO Mark Zoradi's comments demonstrate that 2H 2021 and 2022 are going to be an amazing time for the box office.

Book recommendations:

- The Biggest Bluff, Maria Konnikova https://www.amazon.com/dp/B082ZQYGSL/

- Thinking in Bets, Annie Duke https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Bets-Making-Smarter-Decisions-ebook/dp/B074DG9LQF

I discuss why I'm a big fan of Apple's buyback strategy and think buybacks are a better use of capital than acquisitions, any capex they could do, debt paydown, keeping the cash or raising the dividend. Based on the company's capital allocation strategy and earnings growth, Apple still is a great buy and one of my top holdings.

Some links I mention in the show:

- Berkshire 2020 letter - https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2020ltr.pdf

- Blog post on capital light compounders by Connor Leonard (thank you Diligent Dollar for recommending) - https://sabercapitalmgt.com/reinvestment-moat-follow-up-capital-light-compounders/