Stocks Neat

As we approach Forager's 15th birthday, in Episode 33 of Stocks Neat, CIO Steve Johnson and Portfolio Manager Gareth Brown dive into the 50bps rate cut in the US and its impact on small-cap stocks. They unpack the latest market moves, spotlight companies like #Motorpoint and #Ferguson poised to benefit from lower rates, and share their strategies amidst ongoing volatility. 

The discussion explores resilient businesses, the correlation between rate cuts and small-cap outperformance, and how Forager has evolved over the past 15 years. Tune in as they reveal current opportunities and what the future may hold for investors navigating this changing landscape.

"Rate cuts, especially unexpected rate cuts, tend to benefit the more marginal businesses. Think heavily-geared businesses, cyclical industries, lower-margin businesses, companies that don't necessarily lead their markets of secondary and tertiary competitors."

As we close out the 2024 financial year, in Episode 32 of Stocks Neat, CIO Steve Johnson, and Portfolio Manager Alex Shevelev, do a deep dive into the state of small-cap stocks and the latest market movements. 

They discuss recent market volatility, spotlight resilient companies with strong recurring revenue, and share their stock-picking strategies. The episode also covers risk management approaches and provides insights on future market trends.

Tune in as they discuss current opportunities, from small-cap recovery to potential high-performing sectors. 

"The small-cap market has been a challenging space, but within it, there are high-quality businesses with strong recurring revenue and free cash flows, presenting significant opportunities for investors." 

In episode 31 of Stocks Neat, Portfolio Manager Gareth Brown and CIO Steve Johnson discuss Nvidia’s unprecedented rise, the recent Guzman y Gomez IPO, current investor sentiment and macroeconomic concerns.

They examine the future competitive landscape of the AI chip space and Guzman’s plans for global expansion. Moving onto the whiskey tasting, they then test a Glenturret whiskey from the "supposed" oldest distillery in Scotland.

The episode also features a discussion of geopolitical risks and the implications of government policy. Rather than looking at any policy changes from a market wide perspective, they argue that investors should focus on how that change may affect specific sectors. Listen to the full episode to find out more.

“If you can put aside the fear of missing out, there’s plenty to do in a world where investors are apathetic to 95% of stocks”.

In episode 30 of Stocks Neat, Portfolio Manager Harvey Migotti and CIO Steve Johnson discuss recent portfolio performance including which surprise sectors have started contributing in 2024. They cover a wide range of topics including AI related companies, China worries, and overlooked opportunities in sectors such as European financials. The conversation then moves to portfolio management and how changing market perceptions of companies can influence how to know when to let your winners run and when to bank profits.

"I don't want AI to come and do art for me. I want to say, come and clean my house and help me do laundry. So, I can do art."

Listen to the full episode to find out more.

In episode 29 of Stocks Neat Co-Portfolio Manager Gareth Brown and CIO Steve Johnson discuss several investing maxims, and how these might apply to portfolio positioning in prior and current markets.  

Topics covered include cleaning portfolios to include only high conviction ideas, selling when you can, maintaining cash in the portfolio, how to deploy cash in a downturn, and identifying diversity breakdowns that result from cross-sector correlations. 

Additionally, Gareth and Steve analyse some recent portfolio changes and the driving factors behind these shifts, before responding to a couple of questions sent in from listeners. 

Listen to the full episode to find out more. 

"I think you can deploy your cash first and then you can start thinking about recycling from more defensive, resilient businesses into some things that are offering higher prospective returns. Getting increasingly aggressive about that as you go through that part of the cycle.”

In episode 28 of Stocks Neat Co-Portfolio Manager Gareth Brown and CIO Steve Johnson discuss the prospect of price gouging in major Australian industries, the role future Competition Policy has to play, and the potential implications for investors. 

The topic of competition problems in Australia has garnered increased publicity in recent times, driven by concerns over long-term productivity issues and the more immediate price impact Australian households are experiencing. 

In this episode, Gareth and Steve discuss local oligopolies in the supermarket, airline and toll spaces, and what future Competition Policy shortcomings could mean for consumers and investors. Listen to the full episode to find out more.

“From a business perspective, there have been really good examples of companies [Gillette] pushing the dominant market position and pricing power too far, to the point where they create enough of an incentive for someone to actually enter an industry and become a real competitor."

In episode 27 of Stocks Neat Co-Portfolio Manager Gareth Brown and CIO Steve Johnson discuss the recent performance of small caps and the psychology of investing. 

Understanding the psychology of ourselves and others can go a long way to helping us navigate through life. Markets and investing is no different. Understanding this can enable us to avoid biases and regulate emotions to make rational and effective investment decisions. 

In the episode, Gareth and Steve discuss the works of Kahneman and Tversky, and how their own personal experiences of investing have been changed and shaped over time. Listen to the full episode to find out why.

“You could make money out of the stock market without ever looking at a balance sheet or PnL if you really understand investing psychology when people are behaving irrationally”

In episode 26 of Stocks Neat Co-Portfolio Manager Harvey Migotti, Analyst Nicholas Plessas and CIO Steve Johnson sit down to discuss the year just passed in markets, most notably a strong rally in uranium and the small cap recovery at the end of 2023.

The uranium story grew throughout 2023 with the spot price increasing through the year. This was discussed in detail in Stocks Neat episode 22, where Harvey and Steve explored factors leading to a recovery in this market. Since then, the uranium spot price has continued to rise and has now reached over 100 USD/lbs for the first time since 2007.

The small cap recovery towards the end of 2023 came as inflation eased across the US and other developed economies. However, the recovery domestically has been largely limited to profitable small caps thus far.

Listen to the full episode to find out more about Steve and Harvey's views on the year.

For our holiday edition of Stocks Neat, Alex Shevelev, Portfolio Manager of the Forager Australian Shares Fund, is filling in for Steve and Gareth and he’s joined by a special guest, Will Lopes. 

Will is the CEO and Managing Director of Catapult (ASX: CAT) which has been an investment of the Australian Shares Fund for a number of years. With origins in the Australian Institute of Sport, CAT has pioneered the sports wearables space and their product is now used by thousands of teams around the world. Despite the impressive growth seen by CAT, Will believes there is significant room to continue growing the business. 

Listen to the full episode to hear how CAT is helping professional sporting teams reach their full potential using data analytics and where the business sees the opportunity from here.

“There is still about 80% of the market that has yet to be penetrated. While we're the leaders, we continue to find really, really healthy growth within that space today.”

In the latest episode of Stocks Neat, Steve Johnson and Harvey Migotti discuss what they learned on their recent trip to the US and Japan. 

Their trip started in Chicago at an industrials conference, which gave the pair a  temperature check on what is happening in the US economy. Then, Steve and Harvey visited Tokyo to meet with a few companies undergoing transformational changes in the IT space. 

Listen to the full episode to get their insights from their recent trip abroad.