In this episode of STRAT, retired Marine Intelligence Officer LtCol. Hal Kempfer examines the explosive proposal under consideration by the Trump Administration: U.S. military strikes against Mexico’s drug cartels. Kempfer explores how these criminal organizations dominate narcotics trafficking into the United States and perpetuate extreme violence and corruption in Mexico. He traces America’s long, complex military history south of the border—from the Mexican-American War to modern counter-narcotics cooperation—and unpacks how those memories shape today’s political and security dynamics. With reports of training and intelligence coordination already underway, and Mexico’s own government intensifying operations against the cartels, Kempfer dissects the strategic, legal, and geopolitical implications of a potential U.S. intervention. This episode sheds light on the razor’s edge between partnership and provocation—and what renewed military involvement could mean for both nations.

·      Mexican cartels are the primary suppliers of illicit drugs into the U.S.

·      “Plata o Plomo” encapsulates cartel violence and corruption.

·      The U.S. has a long and contentious military history in Mexico.

·      The Merida Initiative symbolizes modern cooperation but raises sovereignty concerns.

·      Intelligence-sharing between nations remains fraught with mistrust and complexity.

·      Trump Administration discussions involve potential covert and overt U.S. operations.

·      The CIA and Special Operations Forces may play a leading role under Title 50.

·      Any U.S. action risks rekindling deep Mexican sensitivities about foreign intrusion.

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