On this episode of STRAT, Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer tackle the issue of a fragmenting world order, where relative influence and leadership is shifting rapidly and framed by a US and China bilateral relationship tilting towards conflict. They look at various potential scenarios:

•           There is no scenario where the US and China become fully cooperative.

•           Most nations’ cost-benefit analysis’ support a world order where US leadership remains preferable to China or other non-aligned players.

•           The extremes of either a UNIPOLAR or BIPOLAR world – i.e., an old Cold War style scenario, will morph into a MULTIPOLAR gameboard.

•           As middle powers continually maneuver to remain relevant, a multipolar landscape creates the ‘off ramps,’ realignment options and triggers needed to dilute / balance the relative strength of both the US and China - (‘Balancers’: India, Japan, Germany, France, UK, and Canada).

•           ‘Spoiler’ status will remain with Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

In an uncertain world, with an increasingly dynamic planning environment, this is 20 minutes you don’t want to miss.