StratNews Global

The entry of the Taliban government in Afghanistan has not only stirred up the Middle East but has brought together various terror groups such as the Al-Qaeda, ISIS and the Taliban into close proximity with one another, leading one to ask several questions. How will major Middle Eastern actors such as Iran and Saudi Arabia react to the Taliban? Will Shia Iran eventually clash with Sunni Taliban forces? Will jihadi groups such as ISIS and the Taliban who have fought each other in the past be able to put aside their differences and form a loosely unified jihadi coalition? If so, what will all this mean for India? West Asian expert and Fellow at the Strategic Studies Programme at the ORF, Kabir Taneja gives his take in an interview with Ashwin Ahmad.

Podcast Producer: Manas R. Tarai

 The recently held joint military drills by the US and South Korea has predictably provoked a storm from North Korea who has called these drills a “security crisis” and had threatened to upgrade its military and nuclear arsenal. Former ambassador and Korea expert Vishnu Prakashbelieves Pyongyang is using these drills as a pretext to raise the rhetoric to gain President Biden’s attention but what should one really be focussing on is China. Prakash believes Beijing, which will be watching events closely, will do everything it can to prevent any form of détente as they fear American boots in North Korea. On the other hand, President Xi has not been pleased with Kim Jong Un in the past and the rise of Delta variant Covid cases in China could complicate the resumption of trade. All in all, though, the fact that the US-China relationship is at an all-time low with China repeatedly ignoring US edicts on sanctions on Iran and North Korea suggests that little is going to change.

Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai 

The planet is heating up at an alarming rate and if it continues, many of the adverse effects may well be irreversible. The time to act is now, says the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The effects of global warming are quite stark: stronger and frequent tropical cyclones, rising sea levels, intense heat waves and erratic monsoon. Countries need to better the climate commitments made at the Paris climate summit in 2015, Prof. Krishna AchutaRao of the Centre for Atmospheric Sciences at IIT Delhi told StratNews Global. He hopes world leaders will keep the climate emergency in mind while negotiating at the UN climate change conference in Glasgow in November.

Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai

The euphoria of the ‘Arab Spring’ seems to be well and truly over for Tunisia. The recent sacking of the prime minister and the suspension of Parliament by President Kais Saied seems to suggest that the transition from dictatorship to parliamentary democracy – Tunisia was the only country in the Arab Spring who managed to do so – has failed. But Africa expert and former Indian ambassador to Libya Anil Trigunayat does not think so. In an interview with Ashwin Ahmad, the ambassador points out that the Tunisian people are supporting Saied out of compulsion. A collapsing economy, lack of stable governance – Tunisia has had nine governments in ten years – and an inability to handle the pandemic has created strong public support for Saied. But such support will only be temporary. Tunisia has stronger democratic institutions than Egypt which has returned to dictatorship. This combined with the fact that western nations, especially France and the EU which makes up 75 per cent of Tunisia’s exports, is more than likely to prevail upon the president to return to democracy within 30 days. The future is uncertain, but we could soon see the return to new normalcy for the North African nation.          

Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai 

Malaysia is currently battling both politics and the pandemic. A spike in the Covid-19 infections has fuelled public anger. And Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, who the Opposition claims has lost his majority, insists he will stay on as he has the numbers. Parliament has been suspended, ostensibly after some of its members were found to be infected with the virus. Muhyiddin says he will take a floor test when the House reconvenes next month; no date given so far. He doesn’t have enough numbers as yet, says James Chin, Professor of Asian Studies at the University of Tasmania, Australia. In this podcast, Prof. Chin also talks about the monarchy, the opposition and what Muhyiddin’s options are.

Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai 

Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Tibet, his first as Chinese President, coincided with Beijing marking 70 years of its control over the region. It’s also the centenary year of the Chinese Communist Party. He came to tell the world that 70 years of existence of the Chinese regime in Tibet is a success story but it is not, says Tenzin Lekshay, Spokesperson of the Central Tibetan Administration. During the visit, he praised all ethnic groups barring Tibetans; he tried to take away the ownership of Tibet from Tibetans, Lekshay told StratNews Global. Listen in for more.

Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai 

The Pegasus spyware scandal has raised much debate about the need to   safeguard privacy and many cyber experts argue one of the best ways to do that is through legislation. But Dr Pavan Duggal, a Supreme Court advocate, and one of the world’s leading experts on cyber law, tells Ashwin Ahmad that currently there is a vacuum as far as cyber security laws are concerned. He feels that this is due to the fact most nations do not want to be named and shamed for their covert and overt activities in cyberspace and thus the onus remains on nations to tighten their own cyber laws. 

Legal work on this has been progressing in the Far East, the most interesting being that of Vietnam which has declared global cyberspace as its “national cyberspace” in its latest cyber plan. This ensures that if any country or individual commits a cyber-crime anywhere in the world which goes against Vietnamese law will face legal consequences. Such legislation which for the first goes beyond extra-territorial boundaries could be followed up by other nations with the hopeful result that spyware and cyber-crime could be detected earlier. However, this is still a long road ahead. 

Podcast Producer : Manas R. Tarai

The recently released white paper by Japan’s Ministry of Defense has a tone and tenor quite different from the documents of earlier years. To begin with, the cover has the picture of a samurai on horseback, compared to that of Mount Fuji or cherry blossoms in the previous years. In this podcast with StratNews Global, Robert Ward, director of geo-economics and strategy at The International Institute for Strategic Studies and head of the Japan Chair, lists the top three standout elements in the document. Tune in for more.

Podcast Producer: Manas R. Tarai

With Sher Bahadur Deuba taking over as Nepal’s Prime  Minister as ordered by the country’s Supreme Court, it’s curtains on the political drama playing out since December last year by KP Sharma Oli who quit to make way for Deuba. But the political instability may not be over till Deuba proves his majority on the floor of the House. The court verdict is unprecedented in more ways than one, Ranjit Rae, former  Indian Ambassador to Nepal, told StratNews Global. Tune in for more.

Podcast Cover : Manas R. Tarai

Unofficial reports claiming India has opened backchannel talks with the Taliban suggest that New Delhi’s policy of only engaging with the Afghan government may now be coming to an end.  But even if India is reportedly doing so the window of opportunity remains small. As Shalini Chawla, Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies - and an expert on Pakistan and Afghanistan - pointed out to Ashwin Ahmad the Taliban has made it clear that  they have “shared values and culture with Pakistan” while with India they seek  “peaceful co-existence.” This statement which brings out the disparity with which the Taliban views Pakistan and India has emboldened Islamabad to try and elbow India out of the Taliban's influence altogether. This was stated  bluntly by Pakistan foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi who stated bluntly that India’s presence in Afghanistan was “perhaps larger than it ought to be.”

India is certainly aware of the challenges posed by both Pakistan and China whom the Taliban has recently dubbed as a “friend” of Afghanistan. While both nations are certainly aware of the danger posed by Islamic militants from Afghanistan they do believe that their influence over the Taliban is larger than that of India’s. It will be up to India, in concert with other nations such as Russia and Iran, to prove them wrong in the coming days.

Podcast Producer :Manas R. Tarai