Your FTP is measured fresh. You race tired. A new study shows the tired version of you predicts race performance far better, and that the fade under fatigue is what separates stronger riders from weaker ones. Here is what it means for how you test and train, plus a thought on why a plateau in your routine comes before a plateau in your fitness.

This week's study: Inoue A, Mateo-March M, Protzen G, et al. Durability Predicts Performance in Olympic Cross-Country Mountain Biking: Evidence From Intermittent Tests Under Fatigue. Scandinavian Journal of Medicine & Science in Sports. 2026;36(6):e70324. doi:10.1111/sms.70324

Watch this week's video: After 14 years of Coaching, I'd Only Do 5 Things

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Daily cycling intelligence from SEMIPRO CYCLING, produced with AI-assisted research, scripting, and synthetic voice.