A special live edition recorded on the morning after Super Tuesday: we try to make sense of where the Democratic race now stands. How did Biden pull it off? Is there a path back for Sanders? And what role was Obama playing behind the scenes? Plus we ask which strategy now makes sense for the general election and whether Trump has got the candidate he wants or the one he fears. With Helen Thompson and Gary Gerstle, recorded at the McCrum Lecture Theatre in Cambridge.

Talking Points

Biden, the comeback kid, is now the overwhelming favourite to be the Democratic nominee.

• Bernie has attracted more young people and Latinos, but does his coalition have a ceiling? 
• Biden’s coalition seems to be bigger than Bernie’s. Turnout was up—for him.
• People were too quick to write off Biden. He was always going to do well with African Americans in the South.

Party discipline kicked in: did the Democrats learn from what the Republicans failed to do with Trump?

• What was going on behind the scenes? And what has Obama been up to?  

There will be bloodletting on the left. 

• If all of Warren’s votes had gone to Bernie, he would have won more states. 
• But Warren is a different kind of candidate than Bernie and her coalition includes a lot of college educated voters who may choose Biden over Bernie. 

What’s next for Biden?

• All eyes will be on his VP pick.
• His campaign was phenomenally weak for a leading candidate. 
• He’s going to get more staff, more money, and more endorsements.
• Biden’s path to victory runs through suburbanites who can’t stomach voting for Trump, bue he’s also going to have to appeal to the left of the party. 
• Trump does well against establishment politicians, but he also seems to fear Biden.
• The Hunter Biden story isn’t going away. 

Mentioned in this Episode:

• The real clear betting odds 
• The full transcript of the New York Times’ Biden interview
• The Party Decides, by Marty Cohen, David Karol, Hans Noel, and John Zaller
• James Carville on Elizabeth Warren, and a lot of other things for Vox
• Caroline Fraser’s article on Warren and the gender trap for the NYRB

Further Learning: 

• A breakdown of the results from our friends at 538
• Gary’s guide to the history of monopolies in America
• More on Hunter Biden

And as ever, recommended reading curated by our friends at the LRB can be found here: lrb.co.uk/talking

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