Supply Chain Secrets

This week on Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen unpack the realities behind recent shifts in container pricing and trade policy. With U.S.–China tariffs in limbo, and equipment imbalances starting to ripple across the market, Lars estimates up to 500,000 TEU of cargo could be waiting in China—setting the stage for potential U.S. port congestion and a spot rate surge.

Also on deck:
-Why 20-foot containers are sometimes more expensive than 40s—and how NYFI reveals the volatility
-What makes NYFI different from other indices when market pressure builds
-A breakdown of the USTR revision and its overlooked inland impacts
-The UK–EU trade deal as a sign of more non-U.S. alliances to come

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This week on Supply Chain Secrets, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver unpack the biggest trade development of the year: a surprise 90-day tariff pause between the U.S. and China. But don’t be fooled—this isn't a trade deal, it’s a ceasefire. 

Lars breaks down the predictable—and chaotic—domino effects already unfolding: empty shelves, congested ports, volatile freight rates, and a scramble to move peak-season cargo before the next deadline hits. Plus, they explore the latest NYSHEX Freight Index (NYFI) data and what it reveals about rates, equipment risk, and demand distortions. From peak season panic to port bottlenecks, this episode helps shippers brace for what’s next.

Lars Jensen joins from the Dominican Republic to unpack the latest supply chain headlines—and debunk the noise. From Red Sea escalation and new trade war shocks to unraveling what “reliability” actually means in today’s shipping landscape, this episode dives deep.

We discuss:
 • Record-low bunker fuel prices and what that means for Q3
 • Wildcard tariffs (yes, even on foreign movies)
 • The truth behind blank sailings and “capacity cuts”
 • Whether shipping is really coming to a halt (spoiler: it’s not)
 • Why toilet paper isn’t your biggest worry

Expect clarity, nuance, and straight talk on what’s signal and what’s spin.

The market is in flux—tariffs, blank sailings, air freight shifts, and rate volatility are reshaping global supply chains. In this episode, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen are joined by Rich Heath, VP of Freight Products & Services at NYSHEX, to break down the recent launch of the NYSHEX Freight Index. 

Learn how this new tool provides real-time rate visibility, enables index-linked contracts, and could pave the way for freight derivatives. Recorded just days after the Index Day event at the New York Stock Exchange, this conversation covers what’s changing, what’s not, and how shippers and NVOs can regain control in unpredictable times.

The drama continues in this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets! Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down the latest twists in the USTR saga, including what’s changed, who’s exempt, and why everyone—from carriers to shippers—is scrambling to recalculate.

Lars unpacks the surprise USTR revisions, including:

• Who dodges the ship fees (for now)
• How the 4,000 TEU threshold is rewriting network strategies
• Why carriers are blanking like it's Chinese New Year
• What front-loading frenzy and equipment shortages could really mean

And if that weren’t enough? We explore how DHL’s suspension of China parcels hints at bigger B2C chaos to come.

If you’re trying to make smart moves in the middle of regulatory whiplash, this episode is your must-listen.

Will anyone make a move—or are we all just watching and waiting?

In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen welcome Don Davis, SVP Commercial at ZIM, for a frank discussion on how the new wave of tariffs is paralyzing the industry. In a combined 60 years our hosts have in the industry, they've never seen volatility like this.

From 145% shocks out of China to strategic blank sailings, and ripple effects no one’s fully prepared for, this conversation digs into:

-Why front-loading isn’t always the answer
-How exporters are being squeezed
-What’s stalling long-term planning
-And how IMO’s latest emissions ruling barely made a blip in the chaos

If you're trying to make smart supply chain decisions in the fog of tariff uncertainty, this episode gives you perspective—and permission to pause.

This week on Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down the turbulent state of global trade. From weakening spot rates to dramatic drops in U.S. exports, Lars explains what’s behind the numbers—and what they mean for shippers.

We dive into the ripple effects of escalating tariffs, the cautious (and at times chaotic) responses from governments and shippers alike, and why many are choosing to “wait and see” instead of making bold moves.

Plus, Lars offers clarity on TEU miles, export competitiveness, and the political tightrope that global shipping companies now face. Despite the chaos, there’s a sliver of optimism: new alliances are rolling out with improved service reliability.

Topics covered:

• What’s behind the recent export slump
• The real risk of supply chain yo-yoing
• How shippers are reacting to trade policy whiplash
• Why long-term supply chain shifts aren’t happening—yet
• Positive trends in carrier reliability

Is peak season coming early—again? Global shipping expert Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver unpack market weakness, carrier capacity decisions, and the ripple effects of upcoming tariffs. From reliability improvements to geopolitical curveballs, get ahead of what’s shaping Q2 and why an April surge may already be underway. 

Want to be a part of the show? Register to attend a live episode at nyshex.com/podcast

What’s Really Driving Rates? Global Market Signals, Front-Loading Trends & Red Sea Fallout.

In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen dive into what’s happening behind the headlines—from softening spot rates and post–Chinese New Year seasonality to the real impact of front-loading and the latest on Red Sea routing.

Lars breaks down why demand data might be misleading, how inventory levels are shaping up, and what the declining cost of marine fuel could mean for shippers. Plus: What’s happening with the USTR's proposed vessel fees on Chinese-built ships, and why smaller ports and niche carriers may be hit hardest.

We wrap with a hard look at Red Sea disruption, asymmetric conflict risk, and why stability—not speed—is top of mind for global carriers right now.

Join the conversation and stay informed—subscribe, listen, and watch at nyshex.com/podcast

Port congestion—it’s a phrase thrown around in logistics, but what does it actually mean? In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets, hosts Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down the layers of port congestion, from bottlenecks at the quay to inefficiencies in inland infrastructure. They discuss how factors like crane productivity, labor dynamics, chassis availability, and even customs staffing shortages all play a role.

Plus, they unpack the latest industry shakeups, including the Hutchison terminal sale in China and the ongoing Red Sea crisis. Tune in to understand where the real choke points are and what businesses can do to mitigate disruption.