It has now been five weeks since the outbreak of the war in Iran. Amid the surge of market commentary, analysis and forecasting surrounding the Hormuz Energy Crisis, EIR is offering its differentiated perspective. Dane Gregoris, Head of Oil & Gas Research, and Al Salazar, Head of Macro Research, walk through EIR’s revised price outlook, which now anticipates Brent averaging $95/bbl for the remainder of 2026 and $100/bbl for 2027. They also assess how ongoing flow disruptions are drawing down inventories, leaving global stocks depleted and potentially setting the stage for a lengthy and costly rebalancing period.

The discussion highlights several critical assumptions, including sensitivities tied to the duration of the conflict, the anticipated muted response from U.S. shale, and the equity market’s caution in pricing a rapidly shifting commodity environment. They also explore the significant, yet often overlooked shock to global gas markets amid the broader turmoil. Just as importantly, the two share key client feedback and broader sentiment on how the energy landscape may evolve once the fog of war eventually lifts.