Big Digital Energy

Europe blinks on diesel after the export ban threat, and the guys argue whether it was the art of the deal or a walk-back, plus why Republicans should force a vote on building refineries. Then trucking bankruptcies and why they might be a good thing, how Delta's Trainer refinery went from punchline to hedge and whether it's time to sell, Saudi Arabia's push to retake Bab al-Mandeb after a secret Camp David meeting, and the Supreme Court hearing Suncor and ExxonMobil v. Boulder.

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00:00 Remembering Eddie Van Halen
02:36 Rice Stadium Sells Its Name
07:47 Diesel Ban Threat and Europe
12:37 Build More Refineries
17:26 Pump Prices and the Midterms
22:44 Energy's Storytelling Problem
23:53 Trucking Bankruptcies Mount
28:07 Why Bankruptcies Might Help
30:23 JB Hunt IPO Stories
33:49 Delta's Refinery Bet
41:48 Saudis, Houthis and Camp David
47:35 SCOTUS Takes Up Boulder
50:29 Chuck's Crocs Countersuit
53:17 Boulder Culture Check

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Brent is back at $108 after the latest peace deal fell apart, physical traders are cashing in on the Brent to WTI spread, and the forward strip says the market still is not worried. A floated US diesel export ban draws pushback, Texas opens its highways to dyed diesel, and the case for letting the industry build refineries. Plus BP eyeing a return to US shale, 101 GW of behind the meter gas capacity, rising rates and data center finance, and viewer questions on AI economics.

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00:00 Brent at 108 and Hormuz whipsaw
04:56 A new energy world order
10:08 Diesel export ban backlash
14:41 Texas opens up dyed diesel
16:16 Congress takes on college sports
18:10 Let the industry build refineries
21:29 BP comes back to shale
25:57 Behind the meter power boom
27:33 AI labs and data center money
31:28 AI debt and AI burnout
34:01 How Chuck became a cofounder
35:52 Data centers and rising rates
39:40 Touring the house remodel
44:36 Viewer questions on AI economics
51:12 Farmland versus data centers
53:00 Data center rules and energy costs

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Saudi Aramco told at least two European term refiners they get zero crude in October, and all three Saudi export routes are impaired at once. Tim Burchett wants a diesel export ban, six EU countries want a windfall tax on oil profits, and Chuck pitches a Big Inch style plan to build Gulf Coast refineries under emergency powers. Plus Pakistan shutting markets at 9pm, Abbott freezing Texas data center permits, and an argument over behind the meter.

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00:00 Chuck's New Haircut
02:28 Burchett Wants an Export Ban
05:23 Saudi Cuts Europe Off
09:53 Germany's Energy Own Goal
15:47 EU Windfall Profits Tax
18:00 Chuck's Big Inch Plan
23:57 Pakistan Rations Fuel
28:11 AI Tokens and Data Centers
32:48 DeepSeek Undercuts Everyone
34:49 Abbott Freezes Texas Permits
40:58 Winning the AI Race
44:30 Airlines and Recession Risk
47:43 Which Models Collide Uses
49:25 Taco Bell Closer

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Distillate inventories are scraping bottom right as winter shows up. Maine heating oil is already past 5.30 a gallon, the Exxon Joliet refinery went down on a utility failure, and Irving's Saint John plant is out 75 days. European gas ran from 23 to nearly 30 per MMBtu while the EU quietly cut its storage target, and Chevron's Mike Wirth says the buffers are gone. Plus Ukraine keeps hitting Russian refineries, AI CEOs ask Washington for a leash, and the quietest hurricane season since 1950.

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00:00 Chuckless Birthday Edition
1:10 Sark Manning And AI Slop
5:50 UT Photo Goes Viral
9:01 Diesel And Distillate Crunch
14:32 The Pipelines That Died
17:38 Nantucket Drought Loans
20:09 Europe Scrambles For Gas
22:46 Hormuz Mines And Deals
28:07 Ukraine Hits Russian Refineries
31:04 AI CEOs Want Regulation
36:07 Token Burn And AI Flaring
39:16 EPA Rescinds Power Rules
41:05 Quietest Hurricane Season
43:24 Wirth Says Buffers Gone
47:12 Where The Amateur Line Went
53:24 Listener Questions On Refining
59:58 Jacob Jumps In

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Chevron is the only super major stepping into Venezuela, committing 7 billion across two JVs and targeting 600,000 barrels a day by 2031, while Exxon still calls the country uninvestable. Citadel keeps bidding on physical shale oil after Paloma and losing Wildfire to Magnolia. Energy Secretary Chris Wright says a nuclear deal with Iran may never happen. Plus Paul Ryan on the Overton window, 40 trillion in debt, diesel doing the real damage and the permitting reform that died with Manchin.

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00:00 Mark is back
00:55 Paul Ryan and the Overton window
03:39 Trump versus the Fed
05:48 Diesel is the real problem
08:49 Seven months and counting
10:57 Rhino politics and what comes next
15:11 Chevron bets seven billion on Venezuela
19:00 Nobody else wants Venezuela
22:31 Guyana as the better bet
25:26 What actually changed in Caracas
30:17 No nuclear deal with Iran
36:29 Safer but at what cost
39:14 The permitting reform that never came
43:05 Citadel hunts shale oil
46:51 Hedging as the real edge
50:58 Builders sell traders buy
55:27 Remembering September 11

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Trump calls the Venezuela concession the biggest oil deal in world history, so Chuck Yates and Kirk Coburn pull it apart with Mark Meyer out of the room. Whether heavy Venezuelan crude can ever land in the SPR, why a hundred year lease looks a lot like the concession that became BP, and what PDVSA has to be paid to cooperate. Plus Druckenmiller calling out his old Soros desk mate Scott Bessent on Treasury buybacks, ranking the super majors, and 40 trillion in debt.

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00:00 Houston Food Dives Without Mark
04:55 Trump's Venezuela Oil Deal
07:17 Defending Trump on the SPR
11:12 PDVSA Royalties and Ohio Shale
14:48 Would You Take the Meeting
19:14 Persia, BP and the Hundred Year Warning
24:21 National Oil Companies and Real Operators
25:49 Conoco Claims and CEO Changes
27:48 Tim Cook, Apple and AI CapEx
31:53 Ranking the Super Majors
36:34 Bessent Versus Druckenmiller
40:40 Oil Talked Down and AI Editorials
42:49 Where the First Opportunity Lands
46:03 Lightning Round
48:35 Forty Trillion in Debt
52:13 Tier Lists and Shout Outs

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​Energy markets are shaped by more than a headline price. In this Community Call, Sean Maher, VP of IR and Chief Economist at Phillips 66, joins us for a macro-level conversation on the forces moving today’s energy landscape.
They’ll cover the uncertainty in the market, where refined products fit in, why American infrastructure matters, and how the U.S. connects to the rest of the world.

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00:00 Sean Maher and Phillips 66
0:02:15 Diesel Cracks and Margin Outlook
0:05:12 Damage to Russian Refining
0:09:15 Demand Resilience and Turnarounds
0:13:10 AI Inside the Plants
0:19:37 Gasoline Versus Diesel Demand
0:24:36 El Nino and Distillate Inventories
0:26:19 Global Demand and Record Exports
0:30:16 Value of US Infrastructure
0:33:17 Cost of Building New Capacity
0:36:00 Global South Priced Out
0:38:58 Fractionation and Permian NGLs
0:43:55 Export Dock Capacity
0:46:03 Canadian Egress and WCS Diffs
0:50:17 Venezuela Versus Canadian Heavy
0:53:35 Energy Sector Rerating
1:02:10 Why Energy Education Matters
1:04:39 Bonnies Basketball Sign Off

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Diesel cracks just hit 102 dollars a barrel while the Treasury Secretary says he does not understand why oil spiked, which tells you everything about a products led market. Hormuz sits at day 176 with transits down 86 percent, Buc-ee's makes more on beaver nuggets than it does on diesel, and the SPR is now a strategic suggestion. Then there is AI flaring, the case that token burn on drifting bots is the same waste as burning gas you already paid to produce.

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0:00:00 Bessent doesn't understand the oil spike
0:02:34 Macro guys versus the physical traders
0:05:26 The 102 dollar crack spread
0:08:29 What it actually costs at the pump
0:10:25 A strategic suggestion, not a reserve
0:15:48 Hormuz, day 176
0:20:05 Who runs short on diesel this winter
0:22:55 Australia emptied the whole clip
0:29:55 Phillips 66, Elliott, and Streamline 66
0:33:27 Structural or cyclical
0:38:24 AI flaring and the token burn problem
0:46:52 Bots, drift, and Grok running all night
0:49:05 Amazon builds an island in Pennsylvania
0:53:44 ERCOT's December audit math
0:57:18 A weekend in Telluride
0:58:43 Remembering Frank Beard

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The sixty day clock on the Islamabad MOU ran out and nobody blinked, so Hormuz is still a coin flip and the diesel crack just printed 102 dollars, bigger than the price of crude itself. Kirk, Chuck, and Mark get into why nobody will build a refinery, how FedEx surcharges quietly lock in higher prices, and whether Meta and Entergy are about to hand Louisiana ratepayers a very long bill. Plus live questions from the Collide audience and a heartfelt sendoff for OJ Brigance.

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00:00 Flock of Seagulls and concert stories

04:31 Hormuz deadline passes with no deal

08:43 Blaming the IEA for tight refining

12:16 Diesel crack spread hits a record

18:02 Fuel surcharges and the inflation ratchet

24:21 Meta, Entergy, and ten new gas plants

29:06 The case for behind the meter power

31:42 Capacity offline and the water question

37:29 Why nobody is building a refinery

41:50 OPEC unwind and closing tributes

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EOG drilled two wells in the UAE that look suspiciously like the Eagle Ford, and Chuck has a theory about why. From there it's Amazon dropping a 7.6 gigawatt private gas plant on a West Texas ranch, Vivek Ramaswamy flipping the script on Ohio data centers, and a cattle rancher whose herd is spooked by the noise. Power demand is rewriting land use and politics at the same time, and we are here for it.

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00:00 Catching up
01:12 EOG's UAE wells
03:04 Chuck's theory on the rock
04:43 Who captures the value
10:07 The copycats are coming
11:52 Amazon's West Texas gas plant
14:14 Behind the meter is the grid now
17:45 A prediction about Ercot
19:38 Gas leaving the pipelines
21:13 Eminent domain and interconnects
24:40 Ferc and crossing state lines
26:13 Ramaswamy's Ohio data center plan
29:25 The rancher pushback
31:16 Costs, jobs, and tax abatements
35:14 Fermi America and the nuclear question
39:20 Wrapping up 

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