Big Digital Energy

EQT takes out Range Resources and crowns itself the natural gas champion, while Ovintiv buys its way back into the Montney with Logan Energy. An AI lab's S-1 flags behind-the-meter gas risk, SpaceX builds its own pipelines and hires a gas trader, and Amped Energy Solutions bets big on an all-electric frac fleet. Plus the fight over a possible Boca Chica State Park sale, mediators racing to Tehran before the midterms, diesel politics, and Exxon and Chevron earnings on deck.

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00:00 Old Man Coffee Goes to LA
02:47 EQT Takes Out Range
08:54 Ovintiv Heads Back to Canada
16:47 AI and Natural Gas Risk
21:21 Behind the Meter Debate
26:05 Texas Data Center Permits
28:22 Rocket Fuel Is Just Gas
36:09 Amped Electric Frac Fleet
39:37 Permian GORs and Gas Supply
41:25 Boca Chica State Park Sale
48:43 Tehran Diplomacy Scramble
53:21 Diesel and the Midterms
57:38 Exxon and Chevron Earnings
58:40 Next Week and Sign Off

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Brent whipsaws on Pakistan mediation hopes while the back of the curve sits in the 60s, which makes 2027 capital planning a mess for producers. New West Texas zones, the Barnett-Woodford, foreign money chasing US LNG, and a call for $250 oil against the peak demand crowd. Trump and Zelenskyy fight over diesel and refinery strikes, Europe enters winter short on gas, California weighs refinery restarts, Finland halts Google, and Venture Global buys its spot in the turbine line.

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00:00 Chuck Meets Andre Agassi
06:01 Brent Whipsaws on Mediation
09:36 Backwardation and 2027 Capex
11:28 New West Texas Plays
13:45 Foreign Money Into US LNG
18:55 The 250 Dollar Oil Call
24:15 China EVs and Oil Demand
27:56 Chuck's Gold Price Call
30:01 Join the Collide Community
32:33 Trump vs Zelenskyy on Diesel
39:44 Europe's Thin Gas Winter
42:54 Longhorns Playoff Hopes
44:58 California Refinery Restarts
49:17 Finland Halts Google
54:04 Texas Permit Pause
56:42 Venture Global's Turbine Play

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Houthi strikes on the Riyadh and Abha airports push the Saudi conflict into civil aviation as the WPC Congress opens next door, and Aramco's Amin Nasser warns inventories could take two years to refill. Is Saudi talking its book? Then Trump's Russian diesel deal and whose barrels it takes, whether behind-the-meter gas is really a loophole as data center moratoriums hit Texas and Memphis, and why rising Permian gas-oil ratios make Waha pricing matter more.

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00:00 Texas OU Fallout
04:48 Houthis Hit Saudi Airports
07:49 Nasser's Inventory Alarm
12:22 Saudi Risk Viewer Questions
17:46 Trump Iran and the Saudis
23:23 OPEC vs US Shale
26:58 Trump's Russian Diesel Deal
32:15 Refining Capacity Crunch
33:50 Diesel Outlook From Collide
38:17 Behind the Meter Build Out
44:58 One Energy Story
46:56 Permian Gas Keeps Growing
50:49 Is BTM a Loophole
54:41 Moratoriums Trump and Waha

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Europe blinks on diesel after the export ban threat, and the guys argue whether it was the art of the deal or a walk-back, plus why Republicans should force a vote on building refineries. Then trucking bankruptcies and why they might be a good thing, how Delta's Trainer refinery went from punchline to hedge and whether it's time to sell, Saudi Arabia's push to retake Bab al-Mandeb after a secret Camp David meeting, and the Supreme Court hearing Suncor and ExxonMobil v. Boulder.

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00:00 Remembering Eddie Van Halen
02:36 Rice Stadium Sells Its Name
07:47 Diesel Ban Threat and Europe
12:37 Build More Refineries
17:26 Pump Prices and the Midterms
22:44 Energy's Storytelling Problem
23:53 Trucking Bankruptcies Mount
28:07 Why Bankruptcies Might Help
30:23 JB Hunt IPO Stories
33:49 Delta's Refinery Bet
41:48 Saudis, Houthis and Camp David
47:35 SCOTUS Takes Up Boulder
50:29 Chuck's Crocs Countersuit
53:17 Boulder Culture Check

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Brent is back at $108 after the latest peace deal fell apart, physical traders are cashing in on the Brent to WTI spread, and the forward strip says the market still is not worried. A floated US diesel export ban draws pushback, Texas opens its highways to dyed diesel, and the case for letting the industry build refineries. Plus BP eyeing a return to US shale, 101 GW of behind the meter gas capacity, rising rates and data center finance, and viewer questions on AI economics.

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00:00 Brent at 108 and Hormuz whipsaw
04:56 A new energy world order
10:08 Diesel export ban backlash
14:41 Texas opens up dyed diesel
16:16 Congress takes on college sports
18:10 Let the industry build refineries
21:29 BP comes back to shale
25:57 Behind the meter power boom
27:33 AI labs and data center money
31:28 AI debt and AI burnout
34:01 How Chuck became a cofounder
35:52 Data centers and rising rates
39:40 Touring the house remodel
44:36 Viewer questions on AI economics
51:12 Farmland versus data centers
53:00 Data center rules and energy costs

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Saudi Aramco told at least two European term refiners they get zero crude in October, and all three Saudi export routes are impaired at once. Tim Burchett wants a diesel export ban, six EU countries want a windfall tax on oil profits, and Chuck pitches a Big Inch style plan to build Gulf Coast refineries under emergency powers. Plus Pakistan shutting markets at 9pm, Abbott freezing Texas data center permits, and an argument over behind the meter.

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00:00 Chuck's New Haircut
02:28 Burchett Wants an Export Ban
05:23 Saudi Cuts Europe Off
09:53 Germany's Energy Own Goal
15:47 EU Windfall Profits Tax
18:00 Chuck's Big Inch Plan
23:57 Pakistan Rations Fuel
28:11 AI Tokens and Data Centers
32:48 DeepSeek Undercuts Everyone
34:49 Abbott Freezes Texas Permits
40:58 Winning the AI Race
44:30 Airlines and Recession Risk
47:43 Which Models Collide Uses
49:25 Taco Bell Closer

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Distillate inventories are scraping bottom right as winter shows up. Maine heating oil is already past 5.30 a gallon, the Exxon Joliet refinery went down on a utility failure, and Irving's Saint John plant is out 75 days. European gas ran from 23 to nearly 30 per MMBtu while the EU quietly cut its storage target, and Chevron's Mike Wirth says the buffers are gone. Plus Ukraine keeps hitting Russian refineries, AI CEOs ask Washington for a leash, and the quietest hurricane season since 1950.

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00:00 Chuckless Birthday Edition
1:10 Sark Manning And AI Slop
5:50 UT Photo Goes Viral
9:01 Diesel And Distillate Crunch
14:32 The Pipelines That Died
17:38 Nantucket Drought Loans
20:09 Europe Scrambles For Gas
22:46 Hormuz Mines And Deals
28:07 Ukraine Hits Russian Refineries
31:04 AI CEOs Want Regulation
36:07 Token Burn And AI Flaring
39:16 EPA Rescinds Power Rules
41:05 Quietest Hurricane Season
43:24 Wirth Says Buffers Gone
47:12 Where The Amateur Line Went
53:24 Listener Questions On Refining
59:58 Jacob Jumps In

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Chevron is the only super major stepping into Venezuela, committing 7 billion across two JVs and targeting 600,000 barrels a day by 2031, while Exxon still calls the country uninvestable. Citadel keeps bidding on physical shale oil after Paloma and losing Wildfire to Magnolia. Energy Secretary Chris Wright says a nuclear deal with Iran may never happen. Plus Paul Ryan on the Overton window, 40 trillion in debt, diesel doing the real damage and the permitting reform that died with Manchin.

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00:00 Mark is back
00:55 Paul Ryan and the Overton window
03:39 Trump versus the Fed
05:48 Diesel is the real problem
08:49 Seven months and counting
10:57 Rhino politics and what comes next
15:11 Chevron bets seven billion on Venezuela
19:00 Nobody else wants Venezuela
22:31 Guyana as the better bet
25:26 What actually changed in Caracas
30:17 No nuclear deal with Iran
36:29 Safer but at what cost
39:14 The permitting reform that never came
43:05 Citadel hunts shale oil
46:51 Hedging as the real edge
50:58 Builders sell traders buy
55:27 Remembering September 11

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Trump calls the Venezuela concession the biggest oil deal in world history, so Chuck Yates and Kirk Coburn pull it apart with Mark Meyer out of the room. Whether heavy Venezuelan crude can ever land in the SPR, why a hundred year lease looks a lot like the concession that became BP, and what PDVSA has to be paid to cooperate. Plus Druckenmiller calling out his old Soros desk mate Scott Bessent on Treasury buybacks, ranking the super majors, and 40 trillion in debt.

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00:00 Houston Food Dives Without Mark
04:55 Trump's Venezuela Oil Deal
07:17 Defending Trump on the SPR
11:12 PDVSA Royalties and Ohio Shale
14:48 Would You Take the Meeting
19:14 Persia, BP and the Hundred Year Warning
24:21 National Oil Companies and Real Operators
25:49 Conoco Claims and CEO Changes
27:48 Tim Cook, Apple and AI CapEx
31:53 Ranking the Super Majors
36:34 Bessent Versus Druckenmiller
40:40 Oil Talked Down and AI Editorials
42:49 Where the First Opportunity Lands
46:03 Lightning Round
48:35 Forty Trillion in Debt
52:13 Tier Lists and Shout Outs

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​Energy markets are shaped by more than a headline price. In this Community Call, Sean Maher, VP of IR and Chief Economist at Phillips 66, joins us for a macro-level conversation on the forces moving today’s energy landscape.
They’ll cover the uncertainty in the market, where refined products fit in, why American infrastructure matters, and how the U.S. connects to the rest of the world.

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00:00 Sean Maher and Phillips 66
0:02:15 Diesel Cracks and Margin Outlook
0:05:12 Damage to Russian Refining
0:09:15 Demand Resilience and Turnarounds
0:13:10 AI Inside the Plants
0:19:37 Gasoline Versus Diesel Demand
0:24:36 El Nino and Distillate Inventories
0:26:19 Global Demand and Record Exports
0:30:16 Value of US Infrastructure
0:33:17 Cost of Building New Capacity
0:36:00 Global South Priced Out
0:38:58 Fractionation and Permian NGLs
0:43:55 Export Dock Capacity
0:46:03 Canadian Egress and WCS Diffs
0:50:17 Venezuela Versus Canadian Heavy
0:53:35 Energy Sector Rerating
1:02:10 Why Energy Education Matters
1:04:39 Bonnies Basketball Sign Off

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