Nader Itayim of Argus Media joins the Oil Ground Up podcast to analyze the unprecedented escalation of the direct conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States and its devastating impact on global energy markets. The discussion explores how Iran has transitioned from decades of "proxy warfare" to what leadership now describes as an "existential war," abandoning its traditional "strategic patience" in favor of lashing out to create maximum economic chaos. Itayim details the severe physical disruptions to the market, revealing that nearly 8 million barrels per day have been shut in across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq. A major focus is placed on the strategic maneuvers of Saudi Aramco, which is "sweating its assets" by utilizing the East-West pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and export crude through the port of Yanbu. Host Rory Johnston and Nader critique the Trump administration's lack of a clear endgame, highlighting the tension between military goals like "sinking the Navy" and the urgent need to prevent a full-scale global economic depression. The conversation delves provides insight into the fragmented leadership within Tehran, where various power centers like the IRGC may be operating independently to target regional refineries and critical infrastructure. But what does an end game to this conflict look like? Rory and Nader question whether the Gulf can ever return to being a "safe neighborhood" after such a profound display of regional instability.

In this episode of the Oil Ground Up Podcast, guest Rachel Ziemba joins host Rory Johnston to provide an update on the rapidly shifting landscape of U.S. economic statecraft and its impact on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. The discussion explores the unprecedented transition in Venezuela, where the U.S. has moved from an aggressive naval blockade to a tightly managed stabilization effort following the extraction of Nicolás Maduro. Regarding Iran, Ziemba examines the massive military buildup in the Middle East and evaluates the possibility of a pragmatic "deal" designed to lower global oil prices. The conversation also breaks down the convoluted sanctions regime against Russia, detailing how recent blocking measures on major firms like Rosneft and Lukoil have significantly curtailed Indian imports. Finally, the episode highlights the challenges of the "shadow fleet" and the geopolitical dance between the U.S. administration and international oil majors to secure global supply chains.

In this conversation, Josef Schachter discusses the current state of the oil market, emphasizing the ongoing energy super cycle and the challenges faced by both US and Canadian oil production. He highlights the limitations of OPEC in increasing production and the implications for global oil prices. Schachter also addresses the infrastructure challenges in Canada, the importance of refining margins, and the potential for investment in the sector as foreign companies return. The discussion concludes with an overview of the risks to the bullish outlook for oil prices and the future of the energy sector.

In this episode of the Oil Groundup Podcast, host Rory Johnston welcomes Ronald Smith, a consultant with 25 years of experience analyzing the Russian oil and gas sector. The discussion delves into why Russia’s industry is far more complex than other OPEC+ members due to its vast refining sector and extensive pipeline networks that crisscross continental Asia. Smith explains the geographic evolution of production, highlighting West Siberia as the current "anchor" while exploring the future potential of Arctic and East Siberian greenfields. Listeners will learn about the immense logistical hurdles of operating in the world's largest swamp and the technological shift toward horizontal drilling and multi-stage fracking in deeper, tighter horizons. The conversation also uncovers how Russia’s tax regime and ruble devaluation serve as unique economic buffers, allowing production to remain resilient despite international sanctions and price caps. Finally, Smith provides a forward-looking assessment of Russia’s commitment to OPEC+ and the strategic importance of the massive Vostok Oil project in maintaining future global supply.

Ronald's Substack can be found HERE

This episode explores the extraordinary start to 2026 following the capture of Nicolás Maduro by US forces and his subsequent transport to stand trial in New York. Host Rory Johnston is joined, once again, by Francisco Monaldi of Rice University’s Baker Institute to analyze the new "remote control" era of Venezuelan governance. The discussion details the installation of Delcy Rodríguez as interim president and her complex role as a pragmatist navigating the revolution’s survival under intense US pressure. Listeners will gain insights into the immediate market impact of 30 to 50 million barrels of stored oil being rerouted from the Chinese black market to the U.S. Gulf Coast. The conversation also examines the long-term challenges of rebuilding an industry that requires up to $100 billion and a decade of stability to reach its former peak production. Monaldi breaks down the legal and operational shifts necessary for American "wildcatters" and majors like Chevron to safely ramp up activity within the country’s dilapidated infrastructure. Finally, the episode reflects on a "new market order" where geopolitical vibes and discretionary policy decisions increasingly dictate global crude flows.

This episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast features host Rory Johnston in conversation with Andy De La Rosa, a senior field engineer with 15 years of experience in the wireline industry. De La Rosa describes wireline as the "tip of the spear" for the fracking process, utilizing specialized trucks with miles of steel conductive cable to send perforating guns downhole to fracture rock with shaped charges. Beyond the technicalities, the guests examine the wave of industry consolidation and how independent firms like Underdog Wireline survive market downturns.

The Oil Ground Up podcast welcomes Doug Terreson to parse the dynamics of the chaotic and confusing current oil market. Terreson details his illustrious career path, which included drilling oil wells for Schlumberger, managing one of the world’s largest energy funds on the buy side at Putnam, and managing the global energy group at Morgan Stanley and Evercore for 30 years. He explains how his research note, "The Era of the Super Major" (1998), spurred the industry's most significant consolidation phase since 1911 by forcing companies to pivot from growing production to a value-based model. This focus on value was reinforced by "The Pledge" in 2017, which mandated greater capital discipline, flat spending, and tying intrinsic value metrics to CEO pay. Discussing the present, Terreson analyzes the complex situation where fundamental analysis points to potentially massive inventory builds that have never been seen before. However, he suggests the market must also account for aggressive geopolitical currents, including a potential strategic push from the U.S. and allies that may be defunding three different global conflicts. Finally, Terreson shares his long-term view on the refining sector, recalling his profitable "Golden Age of Refining" call and asserting that utilization rates and margins are poised to rise again due to zero net growth in global refining capacity.

The Trump Administration has gotten increasingly aggressive in its relations with Nicholas Maduro's government in Venezuela, accumulating a historic volume of US military capability in the Caribbean and cancelling a raft of oil sector operating licenses. Whether or not this leads to outright regime change, it seems like we are on the precipice of something major occurring on Venezuela.

What could all of this mean for Venezuela's chronically challenged but stupendously high potential oil industry? To help me explore this question, I'm joined today by Dr Francisco Monaldi, the director of the Latin America Energy Program and the Wallace S Wilson Fellow in Latin American Energy Policy at the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy. Fransisco has spent decades chronicling and analyzing Venezuela's oil sector and brings a very welcome and encyclopedia body of knowledge to bear in our conversation.

The Western Canadian oil industry pumps more crude than most OPEC members but its production is located far from consuming markets and depends on a dizzying array of pipelines to connect that supply to end demand. At the same time, Canada's oil producers have had to navigate a quagmire of ever-shifting politics, policy, and regulations—especially concerning greenhouse gas emissions—that were widely seen to be restraining the sectors growth.

To help me dig into the meat of this discussion, frame the current position of the massive oil sands industry today and where we're headed, as well as how to parse the ongoing negotiations between Canada's West and Ottawa, Rory is joined this week by Kevin Birn, Global Head, Center of Emissions Excellence and Chief Analyst, Canadian Oil Markets, at S&P Global.

Rory Johnston welcomes Arjun Murti, a partner at Veriten and former Goldman Sachs equity research analyst with 33 years of experience covering the full energy value chain. Murti discusses his Substack, SuperSpiked, explaining that the branding harkens back to the 2004 call for a super cycle, though the current framework emphasizes multi-year "super volatility" rather than a new permanent price state. The experts dive into the core short-term commodity debate, analyzing the divergence in demand forecasts between the "big three" agencies and critiquing the inconsistency between high oversupply forecasts and only short-term low price predictions. Murti firmly pushes back on the peak oil demand narrative, arguing that continued growth is illogical to deny given the massive unmet energy needs of billions globally. They explore how companies, particularly US-based EMPs, should lean into current market pessimism by prioritizing "fortress balance sheets," proactively managing costs, and protecting their returns on capital. This insightful conversation offers a differentiated, optimistic view of the sector, framing the present environment as a time for strategic risk-taking rather than capital destruction, supported by long-term belief in economic and energy growth