Transcript:Let me see if I have this right. The Russians are helping Iran in its war against the United States, first by providing “targeting information,” according to the Post, and second by providing “drone tactics,” according to CNN. So the Russians are not only helping the Iranians kill American military personnel (seven have died and 140 have been injured since the start of the war). They are also helping Iran choke off the global supply of oil at the Persian Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz. With aid from the Kremlin, the Iranians attacked three tankers Wednesday. They attacked three more today. They attacked a port in Oman. They forced ports in Iraq to close. Around a quarter of the world’s oil passes through the strait. Iran’s new supreme leader vowed to keep it shut. Oil prices are soaring. With prices soaring, the Russians have taken in 7 billion dollars in oil revenues in the last week alone and stand to take in more. Donald Trump is under immense pressure to increase supply. He could send in ground forces, but that would be hard. It’s easier to ease sanctions on Russian oil. The Treasury lifted them for 30 days. Expect more easing while the Strait of Hormuz is shut. So, again, let me see if I have this right. The Russians are not only helping Iran kill Americans, but they are also helping reduce the supply of oil, which raises the price of oil, which pressures Trump to ease oil sanctions, which enriches the Russians, which rewards them for helping Iran kill Americans. Right? I think USA Today’s Chris Brennan is right. On hearing credible reports of an enemy helping an enemy, “a conventional US presidential administration would respond in one of two ways.” Either “deny the reports” or “demand an end to that assistance.”But, as Brennan suggests, the president can’t be bothered. Instead, he said Russian aid to Iran is irrelevant. “We don’t know [if it’s true],” he said, “but it’s not doing well. If they are, it’s not helping much if you take a look at what’s happening in Iran in the last week. If they’re getting information, it’s not helping them much.”(To be clear, it’s true.)The president also said Putin was “very impressed with what he saw,” an odd thing to say about the friend of your enemy. But the gaslightingest thing he said was that Putin “wants to be helpful.”He wants to help himself to Ukraine and more. By helping Iran bog down Trump in another forever war, Putin is not only filling his war chest. He’s creating conditions in which Trump can’t be seen as a trusted negotiator. After all, if he can’t broker peace with Iran, he can’t broker peace between Russia and Ukraine. And if the president objects, Putin can bog him down some more. Aside from the geopolitical considerations, however, there’s the relatively unexplored question of leadership. What does it look like to American military personnel for the commander-in-chief to act like this? Russia is helping Iran kill Americans, yet he beams with pride when recalling how “very impressed” Putin was by Trump’s war with Iran, “because no one has seen anything like it.” Half a dozen service members were killed last Monday by an Iranian drone strike in Kuwait. That same day, the Iranians attacked US military personnel stationed in Saudi Arabia. A seventh American died Sunday from the injuries he sustained. When Trump talked to Putin Monday, did he ask if intel or drones given by Russia to Iran led to any of those seven deaths? How much responsibility does Russia carry? Did the president tell Putin there would be consequences in the future? Did he, you know, stand up to the man who’s helping kill his own people? Another commander-in-chief would. With Trump, however, there’s a sense he’s not responsible. When troops die, he seems unmoved by their sacrifice. A reporter asked this week how many casualties he would accept in wartime. He said, in effect, that if death doesn’t bother families, why should it bother me? “I met the parents [of the war dead] and they were unbelievable people,” he said. “They said, 'finish the job, sir.' I'll leave you at that.”The same indifference was evident at Sunday’s dignified transfer. Trump wore a white cap emblazoned with “USA” and “45-47” in gold available for purchase from the Trump Organization for 55 dollars. The image of the president as a walking advertisement during an event memorializing the honored dead was so insulting that Fox aired an old video to prevent Trump supporters from seeing it. Over ten years, we have seen this draft-dodger use the military as a backdrop. At the same time, he’s called volunteers for service “suckers” and “losers.” He thinks soldiers maimed in combat are embarrassing. He said prisoners of war are unworthy. He insulted recipients of the Congressional Medal of Honor. And through that, we wondered: Why is he so deferential to Vladimir Putin? In the absence of war, however, the insults were theoretical. His chumminess with the leader of “one of America’s chief nuclear-armed competitors with exquisite intelligence capabilities,” as the Post said, didn’t mean much in real life. After all, it wasn’t like agreeing with Putin got anyone killed. Until now.Our Analysis:Unpacking the Complex Web: Trump, Putin, and the Strait of Hormuz CrisisThe article under analysis presents a multifaceted scenario involving geopolitical maneuvering, military engagements, and leadership responses amidst a crisis involving Iran, Russia, and the United States. The focus is on Russia's support for Iran in its conflict with the U. S., the subsequent impact on global oil supplies, and President Trump's response to these developments. This analysis aims to dissect the narrative, identify where institutional power and decision-making responsibilities lie, and evaluate the framing of the issue.Institutional Power and Decision-MakingRussia's Support for Iran: The article outlines Russia's involvement in providing Iran with "targeting information" and "drone tactics," which have led to attacks against American military personnel and disruptions in the global oil supply. The decision to support Iran in such a manner lies squarely with the Kremlin, under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin. This decision directly impacts the conflict dynamics and the global economy, illustrating a clear exercise of institutional power by Russia.U. S. Response to the Crisis: The response of the United States, under the leadership of President Trump, is a pivotal aspect of this situation. The decision to lift sanctions on Russian oil for 30 days as a means to mitigate the soaring oil prices caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade represents a significant policy choice. This decision, presumably made by President Trump and his administration, reflects an exercise of institutional power in response to the crisis.Global Oil Supply Disruption: The direct action taken by Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz and attack oil tankers is a strategic move aimed at leveraging global oil supplies for political and military gain. Iran's Supreme Leader's vow to keep the strait shut underscores the decision-making power and institutional control Iran exercises over this critical chokepoint.Framing and ResponsibilityThe article's framing suggests a direct line of causation from Russia's support for Iran to the global oil crisis and critiques President Trump's response to these developments. While Russia's and Iran's actions are central to the unfolding events, the framing also puts significant emphasis on President Trump's reactions, or lack thereof, to the crisis.Misdirection of Responsibility? It's essential to differentiate between the actors who are directly contributing to the crisis (Russia and Iran) and those responding to it (President Trump and the U. S. administration). While criticism of President Trump's response is valid, especially regarding leadership and the handling of U. S. military personnel casualties, it is crucial not to misdirect responsibility for the initiation of the crisis itself. Russia and Iran hold primary responsibility for the actions leading to the current situation.Leadership and Accountability: The critique of President Trump's leadership style, particularly his reactions to American military casualties and his public comments regarding Putin, raises questions about the appropriate demeanor and responsibility of a nation's leader during times of conflict. Leadership in such situations entails not only strategic decision-making but also the symbolic role of embodying national resolve and honoring military sacrifices.ConclusionThe complexity of the situation cannot be understated, with intertwined layers of geopolitical strategy, military conflict, and economic implications. While Russia and Iran are the primary actors instigating the crisis, the U. S. response, led by President Trump, is a critical aspect of the unfolding narrative. The critique of Trump's handling of the situation is warranted, particularly regarding leadership and the symbolic aspects of his role. However, it's essential to maintain clarity on the origins of the crisis and the direct actions of Russia and Iran that precipitated it. Assigning blame requires a nuanced understanding of all actors' roles and the institutional powers at play.s
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit paulstsmith.substack.com