As one of our guests this week puts it, we know the dartboard but we don’t know what area to pinpoint. There has been little concrete indication of movement in the basic dynamic of the election, which means that we need to stare head on at the grim possibility of a Trump victory, and ask why the sense of panic isn’t greater, including among Republican officials who know Trump best. Susan Glasser, Charlie Sykes, & Jacob Weisberg contrast Harris’s vigor w/ Trump’s continued decline & read the sparse tea leaves.

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Harry and Molly trade off political and legal questions in their latest mashup. As usual, they cover lots of territory on both the legal and political terrains, including Trump’s insistence that he is better for Israel, the status of the various Trump cases, including if Trump wins, the Supreme Court’s reaction to public discontent, whether the justice system is biased towards white men, whether Vance represents “Trumpism Without Trump,” FEMA lies, and a whole lot more.

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T minus 22 and the two campaigns are a study in contrasts. Harris is prospecting for new voters w/ a broad media strategy, inc niche podcasts, while Trump digs deeper into the dark recesses of MAGA voters searching for supporters who sat the last two elections out. The hurricane is a vivid reminder of all that can’t be predicted, & an illustration of the damage wrought by Trump’s lies. A great trio of political experts—Jon Alter, Mara Liasson, & Bob Shrum—joins Harry to piece it all together.

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When Judge Tanya Chutkan abruptly unsealed Jack Smith’s 165 page brief describing the evidence he proposes to use to convict Donald Trump of trying to steal the 2020 election, there was a mad dash of activity as we all scrambled to mine the best nuggets of information; and there were many of them. Read of the brief reveals a whole other series of insights that have been overlooked or under reported to date. Harry talks with the ever-tenacious and insightful Marcy Wheeler, a.k.a. the empty wheel, and in a detailed 45-minute conversation, the two exchange and analyze the most important outstanding revelations in the brief and bear down on what the additional key points reveal about Smith’s case and the likely course of litigation ahead.

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If there was a fundamental shift in the election dynamics this week, it wasn't perceptible at the surface level. A great returning panel of Alisyn Camerota, David French, and Norm Ornstein joins Harry to discuss whether Trump's increasingly brazen lies move any voters into his column. They then take up the VP debate & Vance's inability to concede that Trump lost in 2020; Harris's week, highlighted by a joint appearance w/ Liz Cheney; & finally the impact of the Jack Smith brief in the 1/6 case.

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Harry talks with Michael Podhorzer, founder of the Analyst Institute and perhaps the foremost student in the country of the true utility and disutility of political polls. Podhorzer explains the critical difference between two types of “undecided” voters the polls lump together – those (very very rare) votes still uncertain whom to vote for and those (much more common) voters who may or may not vote but know whom they would vote for. The difference has key implications for the state of the race, the best strategies for the campaign, and the right and wrong ways to interpret polls. The distinction also helps explain Trump’s steadfast refusal to expand or soften his autocratic extreme MAGA message. Podhorzer also explains the modeling he has done of the 2024 electorate based on vote history and behavior. A rich discussion and an effective antidote to the “Mad Poll Disease” that so many of us have as the election approaches.

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With five weeks to go before the election, Donald Trump seems content to double and redouble down on his appeal to the extreme elements of his base, including conspicuous racist and xenophobic undertones. Kamala Harris spent the week laying out detailed economic policy proposals, facing the press, wooing rural and blue-collar voters, and burnishing her credentials as a potential Commander in Chief. A stellar roundtable of Jen Rubin, Stuart Stevens, & Ali Vitali joins Harry to break it all down.

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Harry sits down with Preet Bharara, former United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York and an encyclopedic source about tradition, culture, and current state of play at the Department of Justice. The two have a wide-ranging conversation touching on the threat of Project 2025 to DOJ in particular; the current state of morale, which suffered in the Trump years; fine points of strategy in the DOJ prosecutions of Trump; the Supreme Court’s impact on DOJ practice; and a lot more.

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A superb panel of Jason Kander, Josh Marshall, and Tara Setmayer joins Harry to take stock of a wild & weird week and consider where it leaves us w/ 6 weeks to go. Harris logged two effective interviews, continued to headline boisterous rallies, and swamped Trump in fundraising. Trump continued to stir the pot about pet-eating in Springfield then at week’s end had to deal with fallout from news of ultra-gross online chatter by NC gov candidate Mark Robinson, whom Trump has praised extravagantly.

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Harry sits down with Judge J. Michael Luttig, a leading conservative jurist and fierce critic of Donald Trump, the Republican Party, and the Supreme Court. Judge Luttig explains why Trump is the very menace to the Constitution that the Framers feared, and excoriates Republicans in Congress for enabling his authoritarian ambitions. The two move on to 3 pro-Trump Supreme Court decisions that Luttig disparages, singling out for special reproach the Court’s immunity decision, which Judge Luttig characterizes as an "abomination". It’s a hard-hitting, essential discussion with one of Trump’s most formidable conservative critics.

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